Member Info for PeterS23

Interesting find on Stockopedia today where I subscribe.

It’s has a small information section marked shareholder activity. It shows by way of a horizontal bar chart who’s been buying/holding/selling ORPH shares over the last 3 months. The “who” is split into three sections; II’s, Directors, and ‘Community’ (taken from the 10,000 plus PI’s who subscribe to Stockopedia).

It clearly shows that over the last 3 months there has been circa twice as many sells by PI’s than those sells by II’s.

Hence it is predominantly PI sales which have kept the share price in check.

NB The II bar chart shows there was a small amount of buying by II’s too (obviously different II’s to those selling) It also shows there was a lot of buying by PI’s (obviously different PI’s to those selling)

It looks to me therefore that impatient PI ‘traders’ (not investors) have got bored with the stagnation and waiting for imminent news items, and have therefore jumped ship to seek near term gains elsewhere.

GLA

Isn’t this rise more likely to be as a result of Investco temporarily or permantly (hopefully) ceasing their big sell off? GLA

Two more big buys now showing on LSE share trades . One for 500k and one for 340k. Both from 11-1-21. Both definitely buys. One slightly above the ask and one exactly on it.

GLA

Thanks Spence

Earache, yes I’m sure that it was a single purchase as per my earlier post. The 3 No sales were earlier in the day and then the 1m purchase was about 3pm from memory. I also checked the price paid and it was showing above the mid price point. It was also showing in blue as a purchase.

However it was reported late and there is a possibility it was a sale as I’ve noticed that these transactions are notoriously wrong with many sales being reported as purchases and vice versa. My understanding is that it is deemed a sale or price merely by examining the price paid and looking to see where this falls in comparison to the bid and ask prices. (I.e above the mid point and it’s ‘deemed’ a purchase) The problem is the bid and ask reported by LSE prices seems to sometimes to reflect the current (or later) bid and ask prices, so if the share price has fallen then the price paid will be above the new mid point, and it will be deemed a purchase, when in reality it was actually a sale at the actual time of the transaction. Hope that makes sense.

Perhaps somebody on here with an upgraded membership can look back also on today’s reported transactions and check this 1m ‘purchase’ (though dated 8th Jan)

GLA

Just noticed on the LSE share trades that there was also a single purchase of 1 million shares for £262k on 8th Jan. GLA

Demon - I speculated the other day that CF might considering using ORPH’s £21m (and growing) cash pile to buy the shares in lieu of any planned dividend that CF has promised. I think it’ll take circa £10m to do it?

Alternatively, as you say, he can approach an existing II or II’s to buy instead.

I’m sure it’s all been considered by CF but given nothing has happened so far then it looks unlikely to happen now or in the future, IMO.

Invesco are not a “distressed” seller and I think they’ll not want to sell below current levels and so will “support” the current price by curtailing their sales when they need to.

As long as the stock price continues to hold around current levels, the share sales will continue until the first bit of expected imminent RNS good news is announced and hopefully this will be enough for Investco to accelerate their sales and lift the anchor they have on the stock price.

GLA

Hi FTC

Just looking at shares sales now on LSE link and they’ve just today published 3 sales for sales on 8th Jan for 500k, 300k & 300k. Given the RNS was on 6th Jan, then sell off is still happening IMO.

GLA

Regarding Investco and their sell off of their ORPH stock holdings, there is some good and bad news IMO.

Firstly the bad news; this sell off is likely to continue until they have completely sold all their stock held IMO. I hold shares in IPO and over on their chat board DD77 has posted that Invesco are selling off each and everyone of their ‘Woodford’ investments. They recently sold the whole £60m they had in IPO. He’s also invested in PFG also and Invesco did the same there too.

Apparently, Invesco have had huge sums taken out of their investment funds in the last couple of years by PI’s on the back of the Woodford scandal investments and now Investco want rid of all Woodford linked stocks for “reputational” reasons. This sounds plausible.

The good news IMO is that it removes any doubt as to why the largest shareholder has been selling ORPH, and continues to sell. It no doubt seems very odd to PI’s invested here why they would throw money away by divesting, but we only have to cast our minds back to the summer of 2020 when another II who held ORPH stock (via the Link fund sale) sold off all their ORPH shares at circa 12p, despite all the good news flow and historical increase in the share price.

It’s frustrating knowing these sales will continue to keep the share price in check, but comforting to know it’s not for any reason associated with the investment prospects relating to ORPH, which remain outstanding.

GLA

DD77 - Thanks for that information.

Wally - I got that information direct from the a-d-v-f-n chat today and that’s all it said.

GLA

Hi DD77 - you’ve stated that everyone knew Investec wanted out of their investments associated with Woodford. I’m considering upping my small stake here to a bigger one and am keen to know about the reasons for their exiting. Have you or anyone else any more insight on this? TIA

Fud248 - CF has stated in the the past that these are non core assets and that ORPH wants to monetise them and concentrate of the “services” that ORPH can provide. That rules out spending any money to buy out the other shareholders (Seek Group in the case of Imutex)

Furthermore, given CF has spoken on many occasions about the plans for Imutex to be monetised, it’s clear all the owners of Imutex and PRep must want to monetise them also. (Also to take any drug or treatment through stage 3 testing is a lengthy process, very expensive, and very risky)

GLA

Further update on my post of 6-1-21.

Over on a-d-v-f-n, Malcommm has now posted that ‘Techinvest’ also have this weekend tipped ORPH as one of their 12 tips for 2021.

Apparently they also think ORPH will make acquisitions, and that the industry is ripe for consolidation.

I speculated a few days ago that maybe CF should use ORPH’s cash surplus to buy back Investco’s shareholdings. Looks like CF may have other ideas how best to use the money. And why he’s moving his family to London.

Now 6 recommendations for 2021 from ‘professional’ investors/bloggers ;

- Techinvest. One of their 12 tips for 2021. They also think ORPH will make further acquisitions.

-Value the markets (fantastic write up, as posted by Whouse 5-1-21)

-Finncap (rated ORPH at £0.28p but this valuation did NOT include profits from 3rd (or 4th ) facilities, data for wearables, Imutex, or PRep Biopharm.

-Share talk

-Total Market Solutions

-Share soc’s ‘Donald and Dave’ (where Donald recommended ORPH, and Donald is a Footsie 250 Company Director)

GLA

Hi Ross, welcome to the board. It’s a bit quieter and more civilised than BPC!! . My investment there is a calculated gamble, and much smaller than here, as I view ORPH as a solid investment.

Starchild - Great summary earlier today of all the people who are in the “know”, to varying extents, on this drill.

These people amount to quite a large number, and the geographical spread of those in the know is quite extensive too. In addition the population of the Bahamas is nearly 400k.

Given the widespread publicity and interest surrounding this drill it beggars belief that news will NOT leak, IMO. There are far too many vested interests, on both sides of the debate, for it not to. Modern means of communication mean the news will spread very fast too IMO. Maybe a large stock price rise will be the first indicator. Follow the money etc.

At this stage Kevin55 has posted earlier that it’s not possible to know after 20 days, and in the absence of contrary information, we should bow to his knowledge on this matter.

GLA

Earache - we’re on a highway to heaven :-)

Demon - Boohoo was No1

Bit quiet on here today, looks like things settling down again and off we’ll go on an upward trajectory soon enough, though we’ll definitely get a few dips along the way.

Just a little bit of tittle tattle to share but it’s quite interesting I think;

‘Stockopedia’ ran a competition recently at the year end for subscribers to pick their top 5 stocks for calendar year 2021.

3284 investors are taking part, and ORPH came in at No 17 (from all UK & USA stocks) in the most popular stocks selected from all investors. 3284 is a substantial sample IMO and No 17 is a fantastic endorsement, demonstrating the confidence in ORPH as well as its popularity and potential in 2021 (American behometh Amazon was number 16)

Needless to say it’s in my top 5 picks as my ‘banker’ choice.

GLA

The FT link doesn’t open the full article so just google ‘Financial Times Invesco’s UK investment chief targets’ and you can read it all. Article is from Nov 2020 and shows there is a big shake up in investment strategies. I suspect any fund manager sitting still and ‘holding’ investments will be much more harshly judged at the next year end than any fund manager who tries something ‘new’ and gets similar results. IMO