Member Info for PeterS23

Some II’s have been profit taking in last few weeks causing the share price to stagnate. Maybe existing other II’s are now making their move to load up further before the herd arrives in the new year driving up the share price. Still time though for those II’s who’ve been selling to sell a few more before their year end of 31-12-20. Let’s see what today brings.

CF did talk months ago about the prospect of a dividend being paid out of surplus cash around about now or early on in 2021. However, IMO, that was before the prospect of 2nd, 3rd and 4th facilities being added were firmly in the equation. Thus the funding required for these should be paid from the profits, and cash, currently being generated.

Some of the surplus cash earmarked for dividends will therefore now be invested instead in rent, equipment and salaries to pay for these extra facilities. Which is exactly the right thing to do as these facilities will generate enhanced profits. Therefore a bigger dividend should follow.

Moreover bigger profits will also boost the stock price (by multiple of 10 at least IMO). So if the extra facilities add an extra £20 million per annum to ORPH’s annual net profit, then ORPH’s market cap will be boosted by an extra £200 million (equivalent to £0.30p per share). More, if net profit or the market multiple is more. IMO. DYOR. GLA

From todays Sunday Times interview with Pascal Soriot, CEO of AstraZeneca, and it’s Business Person of the Year. “Soriot points towards an increasing appetite in countries such as China to pay for rare-disease drugs which can fetch a higher price.”

Cited as the reason AstraZeneca have just paid £28.6 billion to takeover the American rare drug Company Alexion.

Also, Forbes magazine on the takeover ;“The move would help the Company gain a foothold in the market for drugs for rare diseases”

Some chunky sales going through close to each other. Still II’s taking some year end profits it seems. Share price will stagnate IMO right up to 31-12-20. Then the same II’s will buy back in, probably increase their holdings and share price will increase, and the herd will follow etc. Can’t see any reason why an II would divest permanently with all the imminent news. It’s not as if ORPH hasn’t delivered in the past year, giving them approx 450% + annual increase . GLA

If it is feasible then this may explain current malaise in the share price on the back of two good RNS’s. The MM’s will have a vested interest in accumulating stock from weak PI’s now and selling them back at a higher price to II’s. The II’s, IMO, will be returning and increasing their holdings too in January, so MM’s will keep this stock price fairly stable until then. All IMO. GLA

Question: Can any II who is selling stock do a deal with the MM’s whereby they agree to sell now and then buy it back at a fixed higher price a short term later? I only ask as I some II’s have sold stock recently according to CF (year end profit taking/annual bonus etc) but I believe they’ll want to buy back in in early January, and not want to suffer a big price increase. Is this feasible? TIA

Well, yesterday’s RNS Xmas present never moved on the share price so CF just issues another one. Good man. Fingers crossed for today . GLA

Rana3. If alone on a mountain. Never eat yellow snow.

Citizen - I’m pretty sure when the term ‘earnings’ is used on here it should be in relation to profit, and therefore ‘earnings’ is not total sales revenue.

Just a suggestion to all posters that it may be easier to use the term ‘profit’ instead of ‘earnings’ to save confusion etc.

GLA

Can’t help thinking CF has deliberately held this news back and announced it now to give all shareholders a nice Xmas present.

The II’s must definitely have definitely stopped selling IMO for him to announce this so we should see a nice increase in the SP today (though good RNS news has by and large led to a red day!!

Mentions “significant impact on earnings next year”. Reminding the markets that stellar news should follow on profits in 2021

Maybe the II’s who’ve been profit taking recently here have now finished.

Moniman, I too am confused by your point on CF keeping the lid on things because he’s locked in for 18 months. If the share price were to get too high, then it would deserve to be pulled back as the market reacts to an overvalued stock. Same for all stocks.

CF is not contributing to any ramping of the stock price and he’s said on a few occasions he’d prefer a steady rise in the stock price rather than a roller coaster ride “which institutions don’t like.”Presumably because the institution can get burned if they buy in around an unnatural spike and may then sell off and seek pastures new and take their funds with them, further exacerbating the share price drop.

Ergo, it’ll be easier to attract, and retain II’s (and PI’s) with a nicely rising share price, with some plateaus along the way.

Ultimately, if ORPH is seen as a safe play, then more funds are constantly drawn in, and the share price would in these circumstances be higher, and the price multiple greater, than a stock which has a roller coaster history.

This is in both CF’s and our interest that this happens.

IMO. GLA

Really think this won’t move much until Imutex or wearables news early in the new year. Or on some forward guidance on expected profitability of ORPH from its core business. I expect the wearables will come first, then the market PI’s and II’s will be attracted to take a good hard look at ORPH. Then the price will move up pretty quick I think. GLA

It’s Uncle Monty burgling our shares

Citizen - agreed with you that any if this inhaler protects against Covid them that changes things dramatically. Regarding your aestma treatment, my point is that if you could have a one off injection every 12 weeks for aestma as opposed to daily inhalation’s, then you’d choose the former purely for convenience (4 treatments in a year as opposed to 365 treatments). I might be wrong, so not trying to second guess yours or other aestma sufferers preference in this respect. Just gauging opinions.

The drug has to be inhaled daily for 12 weeks over the period when the flu virus is most prevalent (i.e 84 inhalation’s). Speaking personally, I don’t think this is consumer friendly in the sense that a one off flu jab would be much more preferable to anyone seriously considering protecting themselves. My guess is that it would therefore only be the preference of people who suffer from trypanophobia (fear of needle injections). That’s just my viewpoint though. Would be interested to hear other opinions. TIA

Thanks Swap, think you’re right. On that basis P/E ratio of 9.9 must come from dividing market cap by estimate of net profit. Therefore they must be anticipating an annual net profit of circa £16m (based on 2 facilities)

Thanks FTC for link

Motley Fool recommendation of ‘Top British shares for 2021’.

Re ORPH;

“Earnings from providing human challenge studies to global Pharma companies are expected to hit £38.3m in 2021”

I’m assuming by “earnings” they mean net profit (before tax)?

“With a forward P/E of 9.9 and expected forward EPS growth of 1,030% there’s huge value here”

With regard to the above comment I’m a bit lost. Anyone know how the P/E (price earnings) Ratio is calculated to get to 9.9?

Ditto the EPS of 1030%.

TIA

Moni, will you top slice some of your 6 million shares if this reaches 30p or 40p? And if so then please let us all know on this board in advance in case any of us is thinking of doing the same and we’ll get a better price (-: GLA

Hi Bronx

Re your earlier post , “he (CF) was very vocal in getting Invesco to hold on to their shares until Xmas back in February”

Do you mean CF was expecting in Feb 20 for them (Invesco) to sell off prior to Xmas this year?

TIA