Member Info for PeterS23

IP Group invest in tech companies, not Oxford Nanopore

Bronx - one of IP Groups biggest investments is in Oxford Nanopore and they invest in tech companies so not sure of the point you’re making.

I was making the point about Investco’s divestments. Here’s another article from the FT showing a big shake up in investments. Hardly surprising ORPH and other are affected.

https://www.ft.com/content/5680d231-5e57-4f65-a758-ce380e112e99

IP Group were tipped in the Sunday Times on 27/12/20 for 2021. IP have investment in over 60 tech companies, so it can’t be Investco completely losing confidence in them all. Just Investco’s recently appointed joint head fund managers making their mark and backing their own choice of investments.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/ip-group-slumps-as-invesco-sells-619m-shares--7770051.html

Investco have sold today £61 million worth stock in IP Group.

Does anyone know of a share that in 2020 rose in value every single day in a straight line, and never once regressed in price? All shares have dips, for lots of reasons. We have a large II seller who’s currently divesting, probably to invest in renewable energy or gold mining stocks where they may perceive bigger returns on their investment in the coming year. This IMO is a merely a stalling of the share price increase and hopefully the sell off is only a partial sell off and now nearly complete. If it’s not, c’est la vie, and the wearables news (or other RNS’s) within the next month or so will provide the stimulus needed to get this stock price back to previous highs, and more. GLA

Hi Sogamla, I didn’t read the Fincapp appraisal as negative. At worst it was neutral, and in my opinion positive. The 28p valuation explicitly never included wearables (circa another 28p minimum if you believe CF’s comments) nor did it include Imutex (circa another 20p) nor did it include 3rd or 4th facility projected extra income (circa another 20p minimum?) nor did it include PRep Bio. On that basis 28p probably isn’t greatly undervaluing ORPH’s core present trading business and gives comfort to anyone invested, or potentially investing, that they’re on a free ride from here until all the other assets are monetised. GLA

I remember last year when the Woodford shares were being sold down and suppressing the stock price that CF said that he’d spoke to the Woodford fund (Link?) and “offered to buy the shares at prices above market level but they’d refused, which was odd”.

ORPH has a very healthy cash balance and could easily do that now (and I think CF spoke only a few months ago about returning surplus cash to shareholders). There’s certainly enough in the bank (£22m?) to take out Investco now (circa £9.5m holdings).

Maybe Investco are nearing the end of their sales (I’m sure CF will know exactly how much they intend to sell) and CF is just letting them complete these sales. Who knows?

GLA

A-d-v-f-n

Over on a-v-f-n d there’s a post tonight from 1gw who seems to have a good handle on the shareholding % situation. He confirms Investco held only 7.86% before their recent sell off (not 9.86%).

The 7.86% held by Invesco only represented 0.47% of their total holdings in the two Invesco funds which hold ORPH shares. This RNS has reduced their holding by approximately one quarter (24%). I don’t think this this amounts to them jumping ship.

Also, I notice from their website that the fund manager Mark Barnet was replaced in 2020 and another two people appointed. What are the chances these two people will invest in exactly the same shares with exactly the same shareholding as somebody else has done before them?

They’ve probably identified other Companies, in other sectors, which they find more compelling (e.g. alternative energy companies such as Eqtec). I’ve personally resisted selling any shares I’ve bought in ORPH but have been tempted to sell and invest into Companies where “multi bagging” is constantly mentioned in other share chats. I’ve resisted the urge to divest in ORPH, but Investec haven’t.

I deem ORPH a near certainty to at least double in 2021. Maybe Investec think the same, but given their considerable resources and contacts they may have identified other stocks which they deem a near certainty to treble or more in 2021.

If I found another stock which had a better chance than ORPH of at least doubling, then I’d invest elsewhere too. Who wouldn’t?

Also, this stock price has increased over the period of the Investec sell off. That shows the confidence the market now has in this stock, and with Investecs selling at an end (hopefully) then the stock price now has little to hold it back from here. IMO

GLA

Demon - it certainly looks wrong if you look at the Morning Star link that ‘RFinvestements’ posted on 31-12-20. That clearly shows Invesco held 7.86%.

In the last few weeks we’ve had at least 5 recommendations/positive news flow from ‘professional’ investors/bloggers ;

-Finncap

-Share talk

-Total market solutions

-Value the markets (fantastic write up, as posted by Whouse yesterday)

-Share soc’s ‘Donald and Dave’ (where Donald recommended ORPH, and Donald is a Footsie 250 Company Director)

Any more?

The share price is only going one way over the coming 12 months.

GLA

Finncap have this morning published a research note on ORPH.

They put a target price on ORPH of 28p.

However they say this price “EXCLUDES potential revenues from new quarantine facility, non core assets (Imutex and PREp Biopharm), monetisation of infectious disease data , development of new challenge study models, and potential for licensing challenge agents”

They also estimate £43.9m turnover to 31-12-21, with £6.6m EBT (earnings before tax).

GLA

Hi Whouse- Agreed, and that’s why I posted to show the ignorance / mis-representation of ORPH at this point, albeit not deliberate from Stockopedia. They will have ignored wearables and Imutex as they are non core and non balance sheets items. They will also have ignored CF’s news regarding the 3rd, and probable 4th, testing facilities being added. Therefore a lot of PI’s will have been put off from investing who consulted Stockopedias ranking.

However, slowly but surely, that perception is changing and the pace of change is quickening IMO.

GLA

Value is still only scored as a 6 though :-(

Bazza, thanks for the correction. I got that information only yesterday (when I typed my post for today’s posting) so it’s been updated today. Obviously anyone looking at it before today will have been scared away by the rating I posted. Like you say perceptions are changing for the better in a wide variety of forums affecting investors sentiment.

Yet on the same website there is a link to a Share-soc podcast in November 2020 by ‘Donald & Dave’ where they discuss circa 7 stocks in the pharma sector. ORPH was painted in a very positive light, but Dave admitted he hadn’t even heard of ORPH when Donald proposed they be included in the programme. Hence a so called UK based professional paid expert had not heard of a stock with a market cap of circa £150m and which had increased its market cap by some 450% + that year, and was also constantly reported in national news items relating to covid.

However our profile is definitely now higher than ever before, and will be increasing daily, and I think we’ve now regained our share price ‘momentum’ which in itself attracts investors who invest only in ‘momentum stocks’.

I’ve topped up myself this morning and am looking forward to a fantastic year ahead.

GLA

Happy New Year, hope it’s a happy and healthy one for you all.

Looks like the II’s have been buying back in during the last couple of days. Some posters on here expected this given CF said in December that some II’s were engaged in year end profit taking. I expect they’re buying back in now, and new II’s are too hopefully.

The Morning Star II ownership figures discussed here on 31-12-20 showed ownership to 30-11-20. However they need updating as the link posted by ‘RFInvestments’ is currently showing that the Institutions sold only 11 million shares from March 20 to November 20.
Yet when this was posted originally on 31-12-20 the figures were a net 33 million shares sold, implying that the II’s have bought a net 22 million in December 20, which obviously can’t be correct and is also at odds with CF’s comments.

Certainly some new PI’s (and maybe II’s?) will have been drawn in to invest based on the very recent share tips on Share Talk and Total Market Solutions to name two. (Share talk recommended DVRG as the ‘new Open Orphan)

I really think ORPH’s profile is now therefore starting to reach a much wider audience of investors.

The vast majority of current investors in ORPH will have researched it to varying degrees before investing their money. Yet multi million people in the investment community will not have even heard of ORPH let alone done any research. Existing investors know the investment case is so compelling and we’re puzzled why everyone else does not too.

I’m an investor in a number of stocks and this puzzlement is a very common theme on a lot of those chat threads too. We are not alone at ORPH in our puzzlement.

I’ve not been an investor for long, but have also been very surprised by the level of ignorance and lack of basic investment detail I’ve encountered on so called ‘expert’ websites regarding ORPH. For example, I subscribe to Stockopedia and the ‘The Stockopedia Rating’ system, out of 100 (where higher is better) today scores ORPH as thus:

Quality 35
Value 7
Momentum 98

Based on the three scores above Stockopedia gives ORPH an underwhelming ‘Stockrank’ of 42.

It also states “ORPH qualifies for James Montiers Unholy Trinity screen (short selling)“

Anybody who had no prior knowledge of OPRH, and who read this stockopedia rating would not invest the hole in a washer in this stock, particularly as its key component ‘Value’ is scored as a pitiful 7 out of a possible 100 (and appears in red coloured bold as a warning). In addition Stockopedia rates ORPH as a ‘Momentum Trap’. (continued)

Sorry, 8 institutions, not 6.

The morning star table shows that six institutions out of the top 20 have sold all their shareholdings and these equate to approximately one third of the holdings in this top 20. (i.e. 33 million out of a total of 98 million). No idea when these were sold, but 33 million is a lot of sales (circa 5% of all shares) and would dampen the share price rise IMO.