Member Info for PeterS23

Op

Finncap, on the back of today’s news;

“we leave forecasts unchanged but with room for an upside, and reiterate our target price of 28p”

Further to my post yesterday on this subject I noted that myself and others had previously queried why CF had not guided us better on foreseeable profits, and I then speculated it was because II’s might be engaging in some profit taking at their financial year end.

Just read back on all posters notes here from CF’s presentation on Wednesday and noted that ‘Jimzi’ had first made this point, and I’d read it at the time. However I’d forget I read it, so credit to ‘Jimzi’ for first alerting me and others to this possibility.

GLA

Continued.....

Myself and few others have posted on here as to why CF has not guided us better on foreseeable profits. Maybe, he knows from being a trader, that if he’d made any guidance on profits recently this would have pushed the share price up, and the II’s would have then divested anyway approaching their year end, thus causing a bigger fall in the share price.

Thus by waiting until the new year to divulge profitability, Imutex and wearables, the share price should kick on, and the II’s levels of profit taking will be much lower than at the year end in December. The share price would then hold up much better in these circumstances and would be very unlikely to regress.

I also posted on this forum some weeks ago that I expected the share price to stagnate for a while, as more investment money returned to the main footsie Companies, as business confidence increased on the back of Covid vaccine announcements. AIM Companies had done better than Footsie Companies for 6 months, and the respective investment status of each market is now being rebalanced. This has contributed too, IMO.

GLA

Looks to me that both II’s and PI’s have been selling recently. PI’s though is probably the wrong abbreviation to use as, in my opinion, it is it predominately PT’s (Private Traders) who are selling, who are not investors. i.e. they’re not investing long term in ORPH when purchasing shares, but instead are trading in ORPH’s short term share price movement(s).

There has been no news in the past 6 months that has weakened the fundamentals of the business case for investing in this stock.

Quite the opposite in fact, with a constant stream of RNS’s delivering tangible, real news about contracts won, expanding facilities to meet demand, money in the bank, a flip from being loss making to profitability, a promise of a near term dividend, all of which has contributed to a more than doubling of the share price in those 6 months.

And that’s just the core business, which appears to be considerably undervalued on a projected price earning ratio (which has already been the subject of a debate on this forum recently)

There’s also been updates and guidance on the real prospect of not one, but two, bonus payouts from the non core Imutex and wearables assets, which when added together could be worth 2 x the current total market cap of ORPH as of today.

The current share price stagnation/drift therefore appears to be on the back of II’s selling down some of their investment for a profit, and PI’s (i.e. PT’s) selling.

It is the financial year end for a lot of II’s and therefore those selling will be merely crystallising some of the gains made on the share price(s) of their investments, in time for their year end accounts/reports, and thus individual year end bonus payments based upon investment performance.

CF was himself an ex trader himself, and I’m pretty sure he will have kept the II’s well informed on proposed dates for the announcements of ORPH’s profits forecast, as well as the status and timing of Imutex and wearables deals. As such they will have been aware much sooner than individual PI’s and PT’s, that both the Imutex and wearables deals were being pushed back to the new year. Thus selling down some of their investment now, and banking gains, would not be detrimental to them with no fear of missing the boat on Imutex and wearables announcements.

I believe this is why CF has constantly guided the price movements (“50% increase every 6 months”) and tried to avoid big spikes and falls which the II’s do not like. CF’s achieved this, barring the largely unforeseen early Covid vaccine announcements.

I would therefore expect the same II’s, and new II’s, to return early in the new year and build an enhanced stake in ORPH prior to news on profitability, Imutex and wearables, all of which will supercharge the share price.

Maybe the Court will simply issue a statement that this matter can now only be dealt with (i.e. Judically Reviewed) after the Xmas shutdown, and therefore the spud in December will be unaffected. This solution will neatly avoid the Court having to cave in to the cynical timing of this request, and will get the Court off the hook from making a ruling pre spud that would have been criticised by whoever the review went against.

Fish boy - 6.55 pm

Further to my post yesterday let’s hope he can give us some guidance on profitability.

The ‘market’, particularly the Institutional Investors, value a ‘profitable’ Company at a bigger price multiple than a non profit making Company.

CF has previously ‘guided’ us and the market, and letting us and the market now know with some informed forecasted figures, preferably in an RNS (if this is allowed?), would really make the Institutions sit up, take notice, and invest more (profit making Companies don’t need to raise further capital and dilute shareholders - and a lot of big institutions will not invest in loss making Companies)

Then the share price would kick on again, regardless of Imutex or wearables news, both of which may be delayed as they are complex multi million pound deals.

As I said yesterday, the two centre testing facilities business is full for the next 18 months, so the sales/income figure is now known and fixed. Therefore calculating a forecasted ‘profit and loss’ for 2021 should be relatively simple. In fact, a forecasted profit and loss will have already been completed internally by ORPH and it’s Board, so why not share this information now?

GLA

News like this can only assist in getting Jupiter out quicker, as more buyers are attracted in to gobble up quickly any remaining Jupiter shares.

Regarding CF presentation tomorrow I think the key area I’d be looking for CF to guide us on is the forecasted level of profitability.

We know our facility and the UK Govt’s facility is full for 18 months or so, and CF will know the contract value of every contract associated with them.

Therefore the sales/income figure for 2021 is fixed for these two facilities and should be very easy to quantify.

CF will also be in possession of a very good forecast for all ORPH’s fixed and variable costs in the next year.

I’m aware that one or two more facilities may come on stream in the coming year boosting sales and profits, but in the short term I’d like to know the level of expected profits based on the “known knowns” of the two facilities being fully used.

CF has always been quick to tell us what quarter he expected ORPH to achieve profits, and now that he’s said we have, then why not give us some guidance on the level of expected profits?

I realise he probably can’t tell us this tomorrow in a presentation (it should be an RNS matter) but he could let us know that ORPH will RNS this information soon.

The ‘market’ should then be in a position to re-rate ORPH very quickly, and hopefully in an upward direction.

Is this too much to expect? Can a Company do such guidance in an RNS?

Rossannan

Yes investors need to be mindful that there is a strong possibility that a legal challenge may still come, but if it does, not to panic. And if they do panic, as a lot will, then this will be a great opportunity to top up on any investment made here.

QC Smith and ‘Our islands, Our future’ appear to have gone quiet. I don’t take this necessarily as a good sign. If the game was up, and they knew the game was up, I think they would be much more vocal at this point (screaming from the rooftops as sore loser etc). I fear they’re getting ready to launch a last minute injunction in a blaze of publicity.

However I’m also pretty confident it will fail. If they have a strong case then logically they should have issued an injunction already (there’s a legal maxim ‘Delay defeats equity’) . Nevertheless the Courts will have to consider it, and are likely to deal with it and dismiss it quickly, possibly within a week.

I’m therefore holding as the strong investment case here hasn’t changed.

Thanks Sportstrader,

Couple of paragraphs from the report:

“so if the UK is to be a global centre of excellence for the next generation of vaccines, then the UK needs to champion its capabilities, innovators, investors, funders, biotechs, NGO’s and the strategic partners need to know what the UK can offer and why they should consider developing their vaccines in the UK”

“ it is clear from the COVID 19 pandemic that the UK needs to be part of a rapid response system to discover and develop vaccines for novel threats and ensure it has a resilient supply of vaccines and antibodies for infectious threats new and old”

Answers on a postcard please as to who will be testing the vast majority of these vaccines? No wonder CF has guided us all recently that there will be 10 years of exponential growth in vaccine development.

GLA

MarkS- is Esker the full name?

Hemo 1 - Thanks for the link. Its generally supportive of BPC but it does contain a paragraph stating “ the Company has commissioned a specialist data analytics firm to conduct a ...” Obviously BPC is spending money to undermine their threat, so it’s taking them very seriously.

T3 - ditto FTC comment below

Yes, I agree with that

Markshares, - “he has no control over the share price”.

I respectfully disagree, although I accept that it’s the business fundamentals that drive the share price. Given however, CF’s at the wheel, and he has detailed financial knowledge of its current roadmap, then CF would be the best person to guide, and therefore estimate, where the journey will take us.

I think he’s guided us to where the share price will be, and my belief is that it will be on the basis of ‘under promise and over deliver’. i.e we’ll do better than 50% every six months. Just my opinion of course. Only time will tell. GLA

Hope it doesn’t hit 30. Just made first purchase here for 38.5p.

Thanks Barwickman, will do.

Apologies, what does he do?