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Over on A-d-v-f-n M5 has commented that the Doc has said nothing much but has said “watch this space”. M5 reckons he’s a reliable tipster who likes ORPH and is close to CF.

Hi Trader 3 - After many years resisting I just joined Twitter only to find on what Doc said, but got this message;
“This account holder limits who can view their tweets”

Any chance of a quick summary?

TIA

GG & Wally, many thanks for your responses on this.

Continued from below post

Of course the above is based on turnover and profit projections :

- from 2 facilities only, i.e. ORPH’s own hospital and the UK gov rented facility.

- assumes the Imutex deal is on a NASDAQ floatation basis, so the value unlocked in it is kept separate to ORPH’s core business, and distributed to shareholders separately as a separate dividend, so no value of this will be in the above £0.18p per share.

- Assumes any forthcoming wearables deal is sold to a big tech Company and the money distributed to ORPH shareholders as a special dividend, so no value of this will be in the above £0.30p.

If we include the value of the hoped for/anticipated Imutex float (circa £125m), and include the hoped for/anticaped wearables value (circa £200m) and include these in the current anticipated total value of ORPH as a whole, then we can reach a total value of £685m which equates to £1.01 per share.

£360m (2 hospital testing facilities)
£125m (Flu-v)
£200m (wearables)

I would, however, anticipate that the Imutex asset will be floated separately, but wearables will not be, but rather wearables licensed on an annual basis to the big tech Companies and therefore its value kept within ORPH on an ongoing basis.

The annual income from wearables will therefore increase ORPH’s annual profits, and my best guesstimate on this is by £15m per annum? Thus ORPH’s annual profits would be £45m (£30m as above, plus £15m). Thus £45m multiplied by a price multiple of 12 equates to £540m stock value for ORPH, or £0.79p per share.

In summary I therefore anticipate ORPH’s share price to reach circa £0.79p in 2021.

However shareholders may also receive a share in Imutex worth an additional £0.18p per share as a special dividend on the basis the NASDAQ flotation goes ahead for £125m. (£125m divided by 680m shares equals £0.18p)

Finally, these calculations are based upon just two hospital facilities contributing to turnover and profits.

Should the third, of fourth, facility contribute income and profits in the the next year, then the figures will need revising and will only increase ORPH’s total value and price per share. I think we all expect this to happen, but I’ve made my calculations upon ‘in the bag’ contracts only and the two facilities being full.

Happy to be corrected on any of the above. i.e. corrections welcomed.

GLA

Blah, I agree with you that, on balance, there may well be a short term dip in the share price as we’ve already seen irrational selling of this stock in recent months based on news.

The market though appears to be learning that this is not a COVID play stock, so hopefully any fall will only be relatively small compared to recent falls.

Regarding the £1 share price issue, I think however with a fair wind, and based upon CF’s presentation and guidance, it is entirely possible to reach £1.00 per share, when measured in terms of total value of ORPH’s component parts.

However, whilst the ‘total value’ in ORPH could be £1 a share or more, the share price may not reach £1 in 2021, if the non core assets are sold off or floated separately.

If, however, the two non core assets potential value (from Imutex and wearables) are both added to the core trading potential value of the quarantine hospital beds business, then the ‘total ORPH value’ divided by the number of shareholders could easily be £1 or more.

It just depends which way you cut it.

ORPH will report full year trading to 31-12-20 circa June 21, and half year results to 30-06-20 should be reported in September 21.

The full year to 31-12-20 will very probably show a loss, given CF has recently said profitability has now only been achieved in Q4 of 2020.

However, no doubt this full year report will emphasise the profitability achieved in Q4, and should further note that current trading (in first 6 months of 2021) that has been profitable. Thus we should hopefully see a nice filip in June 21 on the stock price.

Then the half year report in Sept 21 should give profitability figures for the first 6 months of the 2021. ORPH should now be a fully fledged profit making Company, and at this point I think the share price should really kick on as more II’s and PI’s buy stock, attracted by a ‘safe’ haven stocks, paying dividends, and capital growth.

The share price at this point should also re-rate on a profit multiple basis (12 times profit seems reasonable to me?).

Thus, if the half year report is showing that ORPH is on course for £30m annual profits then the value of ORPH
core business could re-rate quickly to circa £360m by the end of 2021. This would be in line with CF’s oft stated guidance of a “50% increase in share value every 6 months”.

This core business would give ORPH a market value of £0.53p per share, based on the above numbers (ignoring any value in Imutex and wearables)

continued...

Also I was not impressed by an answer the CEO gave to a question posed about the threat to sales from wireless technology. He replied (and these are my words as I cannot remember his exactly) that it might be a threat but it hasn’t impacted upon TWD so far. This was not reassuring and sounded complacent of the threat (if there is one?) I remember Philip Green (Top Shop etc) saying something similar years ago about the threat from online shopping to his business, and he gave a similar answer. Administration now beckons for his group of Companies.

Is it a threat? Anyone on this forum have any knowledge of this?

So it appears that the finance director has counted all pi’s who have invested through Hargreaves Lansdown as one shareholder. Ditto A J Bell, ditto Halifax etc etc.

If so, this is either stupid or disingenuous, and doesn’t reflect well on him or the Company. No wonder the Institutional Investor was able to achieve a 45% discount on their placing.

Bronx, is the £100 million figure not closer to the total value of contracts secured, and this £100 million would therefore need be spread over 18 months/2 years? If so, then £1 a share seems high (not impossible) as the market cap would be £680 million. Of course if you factor in wearables and Imutex then £680 million could be on the low side. All depends which way you cut it.

Well done blessed. Can only help, can’t hinder.

So are there only 89 private investors??

Thanks Elba for confirming

Just to clarify previous: the Finance Director was responding to a phone call from a pi who asked why couldn’t all of the £12 million have been raised with PI’s at 200p (instead of Institutional investors) and finance director said that would have meant “each pi stumping up £135k each which was not realistic”

Just watching online presentation . Did finance director say each private investor would have to stump up £135k for whole fundraise? That’s only 89 private investors is it not??

Despite all the goods news surrounding ORPH I think the market may now be in a phase where some investments are being shifted back from the AIM market to the main FTSE market. AIM companies generally don’t pay dividends whereas the main market does. However lots of the main market Companies stopped paying dividends to conserve cash after COVID reared its head, and thus the main market then lost a big part of its attraction for investors.

I’m pretty sure I’ve read that since COVID reared it’s head earlier this year, AIM stocks have outperformed the main market, thus indicating more money has been invested in AIM, at the main markets expense. As confidence returns, on the back of vaccine announcements, large investment has now very recently returned to some of the Footsies big players (e.g. LLoyds, Easyjet, Rolls Royce) in anticipation of a return to ‘normal’ business, and some of this investment money will have been shifted across from AIM, by both PI’s and II’s.

Thus the good news impetus surrounding ORPH is being temporarily suppressed by more forceful general market forces.

I have a large investment here, and am not a trader, so any dips in ORPH’s price will give me and others the opportunity to top up in the coming weeks and months, before ORPH makes some big announcements that we’re all hoping for and expectant of.

Then the market will really take notice of this particular AIM stock and a big shift in investment from the main market will follow. As for the share price then : Michael Caine, Italian Job, etc.

Agreed Jimzi. Think ORPH is just statistically unlucky with short term negative movements following a positive RNS. There’s no rhyme or reason. Just happens sometimes.

Situation normal = SNAFU

Tonsan, thank you for the clarification on the legal procedure. That makes sense and would explain why the QC and activists have asked BPC to unilaterally halt the drill. On the point of any costs and damages, would it not be the Bahamas Govt who are on the hook for these, if we assume for the purposes of this debate, that they’ve made an oversight in incorrectly granting BPC the licence to drill? TIA

Oasis, Re my previous post. Just to say ORPH only currently own 49% in Imutex, hence the maths of rounding 100 miilion from 200 miilion total.

Barwickman, your £100 million figure may we’ll be correct. I’m going from memory from an online presentation where CF said another Company with an asset similar to Imutex had sold for between 300 Million and and 500 million in total. He may have said 200 million and 500 million though. Obviously we’re both looking at the lower end figure. However, even if we use the 100 million figure, there are currently 668 million shares in ORPH, so 100 million / 668 million equates to £0.15p per share ?

I agree with Markshares, and you’ll be able to trade those shares in the normal way