Member Info for PeterS23

Her (or him) indoors giving you a hard time?

Barwickman, have you been on the sherry tonight?

Heavily invested here and I’m just trying to gauge the current market value of ORPH on a worst case scenario. (In other words, by ignoring the double bonus of non core assets set to come our way via Imutex and wearable sales/deals/listing) My understanding is that these two assets presently have no value on ORPH’s filed accounts and balance sheet, though we’re all invested here and hope big values will be delivered to shareholders for both these.

I have a limited knowledge of how to do this valuation, but I’ll give it my best go and expect to be corrected by those more knowledgable.

1. (24 bed quarantine unit) assessed at £50m as a asset value (NB acquired for £11m net) but CF has said “£100m spent but some wasted” so I think £50m might be fair value?

2. Cash at bank circa £20m (net of liabilities)

3. Profit multiple. Based on a price multiple of 5, and based upon projected profits of £30m per annum? (for next couple of years without adding extra testing facilities and revenues into the mix). Thus £150m for No3.

Thus total value circa £220m. (Current market cap £171m)

Have I missed something? Have I made any errors?

Any help and corrections on this much appreciated.

Definitely a little bit flat presentation wise but all great news which is what’s important. GLA

Wondergoals, I too think something could be afoot tomorrow by way of important news. This presentation has been arranged only recently and for a Friday night, which is unusual. Big news is coming (Imutex or wearables we all believe) so why not tomorrow? As good a time as any other to announce it. Let’s hope so. GLA

Can anyone please provide guidance on likely profits that this current revenue will deliver in total, and over what time period?

Has C F actually name checked Apple in any recent presentation when discussing wearables?

Wondergoals, I agree with all that, and that Sogamla could well be correct in that wearables is first up. Sogamla has said that CF stated news might be coming shortly regarding wearables. CF’s does grasp the bull by the horns and if an entity such as Apple contacted him, I don’t think he’d have reservations about delaying the Imutex sale/listing for a few months whilst wearables was fully exploited. I think most shareholders would encourage him to do so too. GLA

Agreed Swap. And it’s set for 4.30pm, just as the market closes. If it is to discuss something “significant”, such as Imutex sale/listing, then an RNS will have had to be made prior to the discussion. Can an RNS be made at 4.30pm? This scenario has some logic as announcing the Imutex sale/listing this way means the news can be digested, discussed and fully understood over the weekend by all investors and any potential investors. (My understanding In the past from this discussion board is that the Imutex sale/listing will be a new listing on NASDAQ and only existing ORPH shareholders (i.e. those prior to any announcement) will be entitled to shares in the new entity on a 1:1 basis). All this speculative of course, but if it is about Imutex then this is share to hold tight onto and top up on if possible in the coming week. All IMO. GLA

Thanks Thompi for the heads up on the other presentation. Seems a tad strange that two presentations are set soon for just 6 days apart on 13th and 19th. Is CF expecting to be busier than usual fielding questions etc? I’m guessing an Imutex announcement will be made soon and he’ll be a busy man fielding questions. IMO only. GLA

Another presentation from CF on the 13th. I’ve not got a record of presentations but this seems quite quick after the recent one? Is it? Is there perhaps some news on Imutex sale/listing that’s about to be announced? I think CF had stated in previous presentations that he wanted this done in 2020, so any news on this would have to be soon? Any thoughts/comments? GLA

Thanks myboycasey for posting

Another nice contract win to keep up the momentum.

Thanks for the heads up to you all

Hi All, I’ve just watched an online interview with Core Finance last week where it was stated by CEO that “two Independent Competent Persons reports had assessed the chance of success at 25% to 35% which ...is virtually a dead cert I would attest”

I’m struggling to understand this as a dead cert is obviously 100%? The CEO seemed a very competent and responsible and not the type to ramp expectations so I think I’m not understanding this fully? Does he have insider knowledge and has let this slip, maybe in error? Are the Independent Competent Persons reports typically ultra conservative, so that 35% is the highest figure that they have historically rated any CoS, and hence 35% is the best % they’ll ever give?

Any help much appreciated.

Thanx

Oilbagger - I stated in my post earlier “ CF presented with an extremely positive outlook...last nights presentation was more of the same” I. e last night nights presentation was extremely positive.

I agree therefore with all you’ve written, so much so that yesterday I posted I’d sold other shares to buy more here, knowing there would be a bounce after CF delivering an extremely positive outlook, as he always does. I fully expect his next presentation in a month or so to be more positive than the previous, given all the good work and progress that’s being made. GLA

Mr Nobody- CF is, and has been one of the most visible and active CEO’s on AIM in the last year, and particularly since Covid reared it’s ugly head. He’s always presented with an extremely positive outlook for the business, and in fairness has delivered on 90% of promises. Last nights presentation was therefore ‘more of the same’ to people who’ve been invested here for a while. The share price has therefore always risen nicely but not spectacularly and therefore expect more of the same, unless/until some “spectacular” news is suddenly dropped by CF e.g. sale of Imutex. DYOR . GLA

Presenting

Just completed a decent top up here and had to sell elsewhere to fund it. Too cheap not to. Hopefully we’ll see a steady climb now back to 30p then beyond. CF parenting tonight and that usually gives the share price a nice bounce the next morning . GLA

Great post Trader 3.

Regarding the value of the 24 bed quarantine unit, I’m positive CF has said previously this was an asset that the previous owners had invested about £100 million into and CF was excited to pick it up “at a fraction of that price”. Not saying it’s worth that, but seems likely to be worth more than your conservative estimate of £25 million. If we put a value of £75 million on it, then your “liquidation” value total gets much closer to the current market cap.

Best to post any questions on Deepverge LSE chat as not many posters now using this Modern Water link. GLA