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More proof of why Invesco are still selling down. They’re trying desperately to re-invent themselves as a safe bet and are obviously prepared to throw the baby out with the bathwater in order to do so. GLA
https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/invesco-tops-dog-funds-hall-of-shame-ahead-of-jupiter-and-sjp/a1468491
Shandypants - I agree that the accounts to 31/12/20 are likely to show a loss, notwithstanding CF mentioned a “pleasant surprise” regarding them, so that keeps us guessing.
What CF has been careful not to do in all his presentations is give any guidance on current and forward profits. The brokers have, but even those are outdated, not taking account of 3rd facility income. I personally think this is in tune with CF’s comments about not letting“the share price not getting ahead of itself”. i.e I think the broker notes have been issued with ORPH’s blessing (just my opinion as we were all puzzled as to why the Arden broker notes they were so underwhelming). CF made light of this in his recent presentation stating it wasn’t Ardens fault and ORPH should have updated them etc.
However, going forward, ORPH can issue trading updates via an RNS, and I expect CF will do this, maybe April, when the first (profitable) quarter of 2021 is completed. ORPH can also issue forward guidance in these with projections of profit moving forward through 2021. Then the market will react and are value ORPH as a profit making Company and the price multiple of circa 30 will start to kick in.
Then again, if we get other news from ORPH relating to the non core assets in next 6 weeks, then maybe CF will choose to hold back profit ‘news’ till later. Purely to ‘manage’ the share price rise, so there are no big spikes and troughs. CF is on record as stating the II’s don’t like big spikes and troughs. GLA
A Company which is non profit making is most often valued based on a multiple of annual turnover (e.g. typically 3-5 times). However when a Company becomes profitable the valuation changes to a multiple of its annual profits. ORPH is now profitable, but the ‘market’ has not been informed of this by way of an official RNS. CF said recently in a presentation that this would be getting done.
Different sectors have different profit multiples, but Stockopedia puts ORPH into the ‘Healthcare/Biotech and Medical Research’ category. This sector according to Stockopedia’s current analysis has a median P/E multiple of 31.5 for the 80 Companies listed there.
Hence if ORPH is currently destined to make a profit of £15 million in 2021, then the core business will be valued by the market at £472 million.
However this valuation ignores non core assets, which CF has previously guided in presentations, could be worth another £300 million plus.
That’ll get ORPH to a billion dollar valuation.
GLA
Pm444, yes you’re correct that deceleration areas approaching a roundabout, or a junction, have the highest PSV (usually 68+) to assist braking traffic. GLA
Itsyou - thanks for that report. I’ll have a good look at it and let you know my first impressions. GLA
Pm444. The friction of an asphalt surface course is determined by the type of aggregate (stone) used in the asphalt mix. The skid resistance factor of each type of stone is determined by its PSV (Polished Stone Value). Thus asphalt areas which are designed to take high speed traffic (eg Motorways will be specified with a high PSV aggregate (65+) whereas low speed areas like car parks will have a low PSV aggregate (45 or lower). Under a microscope the high PSV aggregate will look very jagged, whereas the low PSV will look smooth, with the former better suited to gripping a braking tyre on a vehicle. GLA
Hi Itsyou
Thanks for the feedback and those links. I’m a bit old school with regard to tech so I’ll await my partners return from work to see if she can manage the translations!
Regarding the reduced Co2 emissions, there is the obvious one mentioned in the article relating to not having to incinerate 1 tonne of recycled plastic, but instead this must have formed part of the asphalt mix laid on site. (Macrebur.com a UK based Company leading the way in recycling plastic into asphalt - I know they export their specially formulated pellet worldwide and wouldn’t surprise me if these plastic (pellets) were mixed with the Gipave and laid in the Italian case study)
The other Co2 reductions will relate to the 150% (or more) longer life of the asphalt, and thus the reduction will stem from having to do the surfacing works once, and not twice, in a 30 year period. Thus the saved 70% Co2 emissions reductions relate to all the plant and machinery travelling to site for the 2nd job (now avoided) in the 30 year period, as well as associated mixing of the asphalt, as well as the quarrying and transport of all the materials to the mixing plant, which form part of the asphalt.
The noise reduction quality is a claim also made by UK manufacturers for some of their products. The main innovation in this respect has been with regard to Stone Mastic Asphalt Thin Surfacing Courses (SMATSC). These are a gap graded surfacing courses and are now specified on all Highways England Motorways and A Roads. They have replaced the older and thicker specification of ‘Hot Rolled Asphalt Surface Course with Chippings’ which although recognised to be more durable, it was also more expensive and noisier. (If you drive along some sections of motorway you’ll notice the difference in noise levels where a new section of SMATSC has been laid in between the old sections of HRASC with chippings)
In the example you gave of 2000m2, at an overall thickness of 100mm (typical for a service station in the UK too) the total tonnage planed out and taken to a designated tip (or asphalt mixing plant) will have been circa 500 tonne. Then 500 tonne of new asphalt will have been laid at 100mm thick,
(In two layers) and of course the 1 tonne of recycled plastic will form part of this 500 tonne. GLA
Further to my post yesterday. The four major suppliers of asphalt in the UK are Tarmac, Aggregate Industries, Cemex and Hanson. They are owned by huge multinationals; CRH, Heidelberg Cement, Cemex Intl and Holcim all of whom operate worldwide. Their market caps range from £10 billion up to £31 billion. Given the quantum leap in durability that graphene asphalt promises, it must be the case that these majors are watching Directa Plus very carefully, and maybe even circling for a takeover bid.GLA
Acker, further to your post of last Wednesday at 22:47. The article is confusing as it gives the impression, upon first reading, that solid state batteries do not use lithium. The giveaway is in the third last paragraph, which states “Because solid state batteries use lithium....”. GLA
aandi, the 45mm new top surface course layer is mixed that day at a local asphalt plant/quarry and delivered to site to be laid that day. The old 45mm layer will have been planed off the previous day(s) and the road planings taken to a designated tip (for recycling) or even taken direct to the asphalt manufactures local asphalt plant for recycling directly into new mixes. Up to 40% of a manufactures new mix can now be made up of RAP (recycled asphalt planings).
The two lower layers below the 45mm surface course top layer, are the base course and binder course layers. These are typically circa 150mm and 60mm respectively but can be thicker. These layers are most often not planed out unless the road has been in place for many years and is showing signs of reflective cracking whereby the base and binder may need planing out and replacing too. However because of their thickness, it is avoided, where possible, on a cost basis. These base and binder layers are of course also protected by the surface course layer from traffic abrasion and oxidisation during the period of their lives, so therefore last longer.
The mixing of the asphalt can be undertaken on site, using a mobile mixing plant, and the road planings put into the mixing plant on site also, but this is rare and only occurs on very big sections of A roads or motorways where the tonnage planed and laid is large, and therefore its cost effective to do so.
Of course when a new road is first laid, its very often the developer who pays for the 3 layers to be laid (e.g. the housebuilder or industrial park developer) and they have to build to Local Authority specifications. Given it won’t cost the Local Authority any money to specific that graphene type asphalts have to be laid, then it should be obvious that they’ll therefore specific these products in the future. Hope that helps. GLA
Hi All, I was only drawn to this stock fairly recently after reading an article regarding the use of graphene in asphalt. Having spent over 30 years in the asphalt industry I was very impressed by the claims made by the Company relating to the additional lifespan/cost ratio of graphene enhanced asphalt vis a vis the traditional asphalts currently on the market. In fact I was so impressed I bought into the Company! (A nod to Victor Kiam - for anybody here old enough to remember)
An asphalt product that promises to enhance the life span by 150% (minimum projection from what I’ve read) with just a 30% increase in cost is revolutionary and represents a true quantum leap in the industry. Currently, a new Local Authority road (e.g. on a main arterial route) would be expected to last circa 12-15 years before the surface course layer (i.e. the top layer of the three bituminous layers) would need to be planed off (circa 45mm) and then a new 45mm layer of asphalt applied. Obviously the life cycle of the asphalt with a graphene component would only need to be re-laid every 30-38 years (based on the 150% enhancement).
I’ve witnessed all the big asphalt suppliers (Tarmac, Aggregate Industries, Cemex etc) launch new products for over 30 years and never have any come close to such an improvement. In fact common asphalts durability has remained fairly constant in that time with perhaps only a very minor improvement in durability. And that’s debatable. The main innovation has come in the form of recycling waste products into the asphalt mix (e.g. road planings, tyre rubber, waste plastics, and even glass)
The UK alone represents a multi billion pound annual spend on asphalt works, and if the reported figures for the enhanced durability are reflected in the results of the Kent trial, then I would expect a big shift over time from conventional products to follow, across all public and private sectors in the UK.
Great news for Directa Plus. Just hope it’s not taken over cheaply before it fulfils its potential with all its fantastic products. GLA
Thanks Bazza
I’d get bin bagged for that not five bagged :-)
Bronx- in CF’s presentation of 3/2/21 he said “Investco want to sell out as the market nudges up” GLA
Bronx, I think it was the first presentation he did this year (anyone else here remember?) although it appears you’re saying CF’s said more recently that he’s working on a deal to get them out. Trouble is, Invesco might be playing hardball on what price they’ll sell out at, particularly as they’re not a distressed seller. GLA
Scooby, it’s possible that another fund could buy out Invesco’s stake but CF stated in a presentation recently that he’d approached Invesco about another II or II’s buying the stock but they wanted to sell direct into the market. It appears Invesco still have belief in ORPH, just that they’re set on a policy of selling down the Woodford investments (e.g IP Group also recently for £60m +) as new fund managers have been appointed there who want to stamp their authority and direction on investments. Therefore in order to maximise their investment in ORPH they’re selling incrementally into a rising market. Each to their own..
On the point of 4-6 weeks notice, my experience (albeit very limited) is that “expected” news with a fixed time date leads to a gradual increase in the share price right up to the news being revealed. “Buy on the rumour, sell on the news” is often quoted in this respect. I think CF has maybe given this “4-6 weeks” news deliberately in order to support the share price through this period.
Obviously not many will be “selling on the news” given the conveyor belt of more good news that is due to follow afterwards. IMO. GLA
Spot on Citizen - I thought I’d done well (lucky really) in building the majority of my shareholding in ORPH last year against a background of Link/Acacia persistently selling and suppressing the share price. I remember commenting on here that the Link selling action served new buyers well. Ergo I could by more ORPH shares for the money I had available at that time.
Similar opportunity now exists for any new investors, except the Company stability, forward looking projections and opportunities for ORPH are now more concrete and exciting than ever. Therefore, at circa 28p a share ORPH is better placed now to multi bag (3 x plus) than it was last year when I built my stake.IMO. GLA
Heff, I respectfully suggest you read Trader 3’s post of yesterday at 18:27, as this is completely at odds with your first post here which opens “I’ve been thinking...” GLA
Just caught the end. CF summarised near the end;
“Buckle up hold on tight we’re going to have a fun year ahead, I’ve never been as motivated or excited in my life”
Say no more.
GLA
Great summary Trader 3. Promised myself I wouldn’t invest any more funds here as I’m top heavy already, but after reading that post I’m tempted again. GLA