Member Info for PeterS23

Just read an interesting article which speculated that the Basel III regulations could actually be contributing to the fall in gold prices. The theory being that if banks now only have to hold 50% of their current gold stocks to have the same balance sheet value, then they may be selling some gold and be no worse off with respect to their balance sheet. The article, however, went on to give some reasons as to why this sell off should only be temporary, and was generally bullish about gold prices going forward. GLA

GG - I’m pretty sure CF is appearing not just to promote ORPH but mainly to put right the wrongs in Mello’s last presentation in January. In the BASH feature, ORPH’s analyst introduced his presentation by stating that “ORPH will not need an introduction as its Chairman Cathal Friel seems to spend half his time going around promoting the Company”. It was said in a semi mocking tone and the subsequent negative and poorly researched presentation proved it.

Moreover, had CF spent “half his time promoting ORPH”, then CF would have not been able to drive ORPH and achieving all the other stellar progress that has been made in the last year on numerous fronts (numerous contracts including UK Govt one, achieving profitability, increasing revenue with two more testing facility locations, cash in the bank, progress on forthcoming monetisation of non core assets including wearables which wasn’t even on the radar 12 months ago). A more accurate presentational introduction should have said “ORPH will not need an introduction as its Chairman has worked tirelessly in the last year successfully transforming the Company”

Of course, if the analyst had based his presentation on any of the numerous ORPH presentations in the last four months he would have been aware of ORPH’s progress under CF’s guidance. Instead the analysis was based on Stockopedia’s assessment, and an ORPH presentation from January 2020 (13 months ago) which was also mis-interpreted.

This BASH analysis was also completely at odds with at least 8 other properly researched published pieces from various sources, all within the last two months (which I’ve posted about previously on here)

As you can guess, I was pretty cheesed off to have paid £12 for the last Mello presentation only to stumble upon such a lazy analysis of ORPH. I’m looking forward to CF’s riposte tomorrow. Might be a bit sparky. GLA

Ignore my previous post - not long woken up, and just read other subsequent posts . GLA

If we have to wait until June for a deal to be completed, then will we need to do a fundraise sometime between now and then, as as cash looks tight? GLA

Ding - I agree with you that CF meant 100m to 200m and that ORPH will be valued at 1 billion within 6 months, probably $1B dollars though.

CF has in the past deliberately managed share price expectations (under promise but overdeliver) but we’re fast approaching the period whereby the investment fundamentals of ORPH cannot be held back and the share price will rise to reflect this.

Invesco will soon be out, thus taking off the anchor holding back the share price rise.

Non core assets will be monetised in some way within the next 3 or 4 months or so turbo boosting ORPH’s value.

ORPH should then be issuing an RNS in June 2021 with financial results for the year to 31-12-20 and this normally includes future guidance for trading for the rest of 2021 (last year the RNS was posted 24/6/20 and included ‘post year highlights’). The main highlight should obviously be guidance on profits. The market will value a profit making Company much more favourably than a loss making one. Big institutional investors will also then want to buy and hold stock (most cannot invest in loss making Companies)

Will investors care that CF’s assertion of “doubling the share price every six months” is blown out of the water? Answers on a postcard please to....

GLA

More proof of why Invesco are still selling down. They’re trying desperately to re-invent themselves as a safe bet and are obviously prepared to throw the baby out with the bathwater in order to do so. GLA

https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/invesco-tops-dog-funds-hall-of-shame-ahead-of-jupiter-and-sjp/a1468491

Shandypants - I agree that the accounts to 31/12/20 are likely to show a loss, notwithstanding CF mentioned a “pleasant surprise” regarding them, so that keeps us guessing.

What CF has been careful not to do in all his presentations is give any guidance on current and forward profits. The brokers have, but even those are outdated, not taking account of 3rd facility income. I personally think this is in tune with CF’s comments about not letting“the share price not getting ahead of itself”. i.e I think the broker notes have been issued with ORPH’s blessing (just my opinion as we were all puzzled as to why the Arden broker notes they were so underwhelming). CF made light of this in his recent presentation stating it wasn’t Ardens fault and ORPH should have updated them etc.

However, going forward, ORPH can issue trading updates via an RNS, and I expect CF will do this, maybe April, when the first (profitable) quarter of 2021 is completed. ORPH can also issue forward guidance in these with projections of profit moving forward through 2021. Then the market will react and are value ORPH as a profit making Company and the price multiple of circa 30 will start to kick in.

Then again, if we get other news from ORPH relating to the non core assets in next 6 weeks, then maybe CF will choose to hold back profit ‘news’ till later. Purely to ‘manage’ the share price rise, so there are no big spikes and troughs. CF is on record as stating the II’s don’t like big spikes and troughs. GLA

A Company which is non profit making is most often valued based on a multiple of annual turnover (e.g. typically 3-5 times). However when a Company becomes profitable the valuation changes to a multiple of its annual profits. ORPH is now profitable, but the ‘market’ has not been informed of this by way of an official RNS. CF said recently in a presentation that this would be getting done.

Different sectors have different profit multiples, but Stockopedia puts ORPH into the ‘Healthcare/Biotech and Medical Research’ category. This sector according to Stockopedia’s current analysis has a median P/E multiple of 31.5 for the 80 Companies listed there.

Hence if ORPH is currently destined to make a profit of £15 million in 2021, then the core business will be valued by the market at £472 million.

However this valuation ignores non core assets, which CF has previously guided in presentations, could be worth another £300 million plus.

That’ll get ORPH to a billion dollar valuation.

GLA

Pm444, yes you’re correct that deceleration areas approaching a roundabout, or a junction, have the highest PSV (usually 68+) to assist braking traffic. GLA

Itsyou - thanks for that report. I’ll have a good look at it and let you know my first impressions. GLA

Pm444. The friction of an asphalt surface course is determined by the type of aggregate (stone) used in the asphalt mix. The skid resistance factor of each type of stone is determined by its PSV (Polished Stone Value). Thus asphalt areas which are designed to take high speed traffic (eg Motorways will be specified with a high PSV aggregate (65+) whereas low speed areas like car parks will have a low PSV aggregate (45 or lower). Under a microscope the high PSV aggregate will look very jagged, whereas the low PSV will look smooth, with the former better suited to gripping a braking tyre on a vehicle. GLA

Hi Itsyou

Thanks for the feedback and those links. I’m a bit old school with regard to tech so I’ll await my partners return from work to see if she can manage the translations!

Regarding the reduced Co2 emissions, there is the obvious one mentioned in the article relating to not having to incinerate 1 tonne of recycled plastic, but instead this must have formed part of the asphalt mix laid on site. (Macrebur.com a UK based Company leading the way in recycling plastic into asphalt - I know they export their specially formulated pellet worldwide and wouldn’t surprise me if these plastic (pellets) were mixed with the Gipave and laid in the Italian case study)

The other Co2 reductions will relate to the 150% (or more) longer life of the asphalt, and thus the reduction will stem from having to do the surfacing works once, and not twice, in a 30 year period. Thus the saved 70% Co2 emissions reductions relate to all the plant and machinery travelling to site for the 2nd job (now avoided) in the 30 year period, as well as associated mixing of the asphalt, as well as the quarrying and transport of all the materials to the mixing plant, which form part of the asphalt.

The noise reduction quality is a claim also made by UK manufacturers for some of their products. The main innovation in this respect has been with regard to Stone Mastic Asphalt Thin Surfacing Courses (SMATSC). These are a gap graded surfacing courses and are now specified on all Highways England Motorways and A Roads. They have replaced the older and thicker specification of ‘Hot Rolled Asphalt Surface Course with Chippings’ which although recognised to be more durable, it was also more expensive and noisier. (If you drive along some sections of motorway you’ll notice the difference in noise levels where a new section of SMATSC has been laid in between the old sections of HRASC with chippings)

In the example you gave of 2000m2, at an overall thickness of 100mm (typical for a service station in the UK too) the total tonnage planed out and taken to a designated tip (or asphalt mixing plant) will have been circa 500 tonne. Then 500 tonne of new asphalt will have been laid at 100mm thick,
(In two layers) and of course the 1 tonne of recycled plastic will form part of this 500 tonne. GLA

Further to my post yesterday. The four major suppliers of asphalt in the UK are Tarmac, Aggregate Industries, Cemex and Hanson. They are owned by huge multinationals; CRH, Heidelberg Cement, Cemex Intl and Holcim all of whom operate worldwide. Their market caps range from £10 billion up to £31 billion. Given the quantum leap in durability that graphene asphalt promises, it must be the case that these majors are watching Directa Plus very carefully, and maybe even circling for a takeover bid.GLA

Acker, further to your post of last Wednesday at 22:47. The article is confusing as it gives the impression, upon first reading, that solid state batteries do not use lithium. The giveaway is in the third last paragraph, which states “Because solid state batteries use lithium....”. GLA

aandi, the 45mm new top surface course layer is mixed that day at a local asphalt plant/quarry and delivered to site to be laid that day. The old 45mm layer will have been planed off the previous day(s) and the road planings taken to a designated tip (for recycling) or even taken direct to the asphalt manufactures local asphalt plant for recycling directly into new mixes. Up to 40% of a manufactures new mix can now be made up of RAP (recycled asphalt planings).

The two lower layers below the 45mm surface course top layer, are the base course and binder course layers. These are typically circa 150mm and 60mm respectively but can be thicker. These layers are most often not planed out unless the road has been in place for many years and is showing signs of reflective cracking whereby the base and binder may need planing out and replacing too. However because of their thickness, it is avoided, where possible, on a cost basis. These base and binder layers are of course also protected by the surface course layer from traffic abrasion and oxidisation during the period of their lives, so therefore last longer.

The mixing of the asphalt can be undertaken on site, using a mobile mixing plant, and the road planings put into the mixing plant on site also, but this is rare and only occurs on very big sections of A roads or motorways where the tonnage planed and laid is large, and therefore its cost effective to do so.

Of course when a new road is first laid, its very often the developer who pays for the 3 layers to be laid (e.g. the housebuilder or industrial park developer) and they have to build to Local Authority specifications. Given it won’t cost the Local Authority any money to specific that graphene type asphalts have to be laid, then it should be obvious that they’ll therefore specific these products in the future. Hope that helps. GLA

Hi All, I was only drawn to this stock fairly recently after reading an article regarding the use of graphene in asphalt. Having spent over 30 years in the asphalt industry I was very impressed by the claims made by the Company relating to the additional lifespan/cost ratio of graphene enhanced asphalt vis a vis the traditional asphalts currently on the market. In fact I was so impressed I bought into the Company! (A nod to Victor Kiam - for anybody here old enough to remember)

An asphalt product that promises to enhance the life span by 150% (minimum projection from what I’ve read) with just a 30% increase in cost is revolutionary and represents a true quantum leap in the industry. Currently, a new Local Authority road (e.g. on a main arterial route) would be expected to last circa 12-15 years before the surface course layer (i.e. the top layer of the three bituminous layers) would need to be planed off (circa 45mm) and then a new 45mm layer of asphalt applied. Obviously the life cycle of the asphalt with a graphene component would only need to be re-laid every 30-38 years (based on the 150% enhancement).

I’ve witnessed all the big asphalt suppliers (Tarmac, Aggregate Industries, Cemex etc) launch new products for over 30 years and never have any come close to such an improvement. In fact common asphalts durability has remained fairly constant in that time with perhaps only a very minor improvement in durability. And that’s debatable. The main innovation has come in the form of recycling waste products into the asphalt mix (e.g. road planings, tyre rubber, waste plastics, and even glass)

The UK alone represents a multi billion pound annual spend on asphalt works, and if the reported figures for the enhanced durability are reflected in the results of the Kent trial, then I would expect a big shift over time from conventional products to follow, across all public and private sectors in the UK.

Great news for Directa Plus. Just hope it’s not taken over cheaply before it fulfils its potential with all its fantastic products. GLA

Thanks Bazza

I’d get bin bagged for that not five bagged :-)

Bronx- in CF’s presentation of 3/2/21 he said “Investco want to sell out as the market nudges up” GLA

Bronx, I think it was the first presentation he did this year (anyone else here remember?) although it appears you’re saying CF’s said more recently that he’s working on a deal to get them out. Trouble is, Invesco might be playing hardball on what price they’ll sell out at, particularly as they’re not a distressed seller. GLA