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Arden have also provided new sales figure and profit projections for 2021 and 2022. They are sales of £53m and £76m for 2021 and 2022, with net profits before tax of £9m and £16.5m for 2021 and 2022.
Stockopedia today given the whole sector a p/e average of 30.5, meaning ORPH’s market cap should be £275m for 2021 and £503m for 2022 based on these updated figures.
Above figures exclude non core assets.
GLA
LI - no doubt you’re correct in stating that Invesco will continue dumping but given the share price has kept steadily rising during the period of their relentless selling, then you have omitted to state that tomorrow should also normally see more buying by other parties, relatively speaking. “The price of a commodity is determined by the interaction of supply and demand in a market” - Britainnica.com. More buying than selling and the price goes up. More selling than buying and the price goes down. GLA
Earache - metaltiger was only hypothesising on the question in the header. GLA
Thanks DDB for the clarification. GLA
NST1 - from memory I don’t think CF rubbished claims but rather downplayed them. Probably couldn’t say anything definitive one way or the other as it would be deemed market sensitive IMO. Personally I believe MOGP will be a SPAC vehicle for an OO spin off. GLA
Thanks Trader - Superb research as usual. GLA
NST1 - Agree with Demon- CF definitely intimated one spin off alone has the potential to be a 1 billion dollar business. GLA
Below is from today’s Share-prophets and TW writes:
“However I note a couple of interesting names have appeared on the shareholder register who are not your normal common or garden sewer dwelling Peterhouse client. One is my pal Chris Potts who owns just under 5%. That he is not flipping is interesting. But more interesting is, at 4.52% Raglan Capital which is the vehicle of Cathal Friel the man behind Open Orphan (ORPH) which has been a bit of star since its IPO two years ago.
I put it to Cathal that he was up to something and he said: “I can’t say much on Mountfield, it does not necessarily have anything to do with Open Orphan. Let’s see, as we have already guided by the market as we are planning on spinning out 1, 2 or possibly 3 non-core assets. “
So it could be that Peterhouse goes away and makes this another blockchain cum cannabis cum green energy bag of ****e to ramp or maybe Cathal is is going to use this to create a proper company. I am not sure I’d chase it at 0.3p but on a bad day at closer to 0.25p I might be tempted to have a small flutter hoping that Cathal does get involved”
Thanks Magoo - So he’s not connected. Back to Auf Weidersehen Pet. GLA
Who’s Pat Roche and what, if any, is the connection to ORPH? TIA
If CF gets clearance quickly to be able to purchase more shares then it’ll probably be CF who clears out Invesco on the open market. If Invesco still now have circa 3%, then that equates to about £6 million to clear them out. CF still holds shares in Amryt Pharma Plc worth circa £33 million. Sell a few there, purchase here. GLA
Extrader posted on 3rd Feb this year that CF had possibly managed the share price in them last 6 months because he may have wanted to buy more shares at a good price. Looks like it was a great call. GLA
Skywalker - I just caught the end of the presentation but in answer to the the question of whether a billion dollar valuation included non core assets, CF did say, after going around the houses “a Nasdaq listings is part of that”. GLA
Just read an interesting article which speculated that the Basel III regulations could actually be contributing to the fall in gold prices. The theory being that if banks now only have to hold 50% of their current gold stocks to have the same balance sheet value, then they may be selling some gold and be no worse off with respect to their balance sheet. The article, however, went on to give some reasons as to why this sell off should only be temporary, and was generally bullish about gold prices going forward. GLA
GG - I’m pretty sure CF is appearing not just to promote ORPH but mainly to put right the wrongs in Mello’s last presentation in January. In the BASH feature, ORPH’s analyst introduced his presentation by stating that “ORPH will not need an introduction as its Chairman Cathal Friel seems to spend half his time going around promoting the Company”. It was said in a semi mocking tone and the subsequent negative and poorly researched presentation proved it.
Moreover, had CF spent “half his time promoting ORPH”, then CF would have not been able to drive ORPH and achieving all the other stellar progress that has been made in the last year on numerous fronts (numerous contracts including UK Govt one, achieving profitability, increasing revenue with two more testing facility locations, cash in the bank, progress on forthcoming monetisation of non core assets including wearables which wasn’t even on the radar 12 months ago). A more accurate presentational introduction should have said “ORPH will not need an introduction as its Chairman has worked tirelessly in the last year successfully transforming the Company”
Of course, if the analyst had based his presentation on any of the numerous ORPH presentations in the last four months he would have been aware of ORPH’s progress under CF’s guidance. Instead the analysis was based on Stockopedia’s assessment, and an ORPH presentation from January 2020 (13 months ago) which was also mis-interpreted.
This BASH analysis was also completely at odds with at least 8 other properly researched published pieces from various sources, all within the last two months (which I’ve posted about previously on here)
As you can guess, I was pretty cheesed off to have paid £12 for the last Mello presentation only to stumble upon such a lazy analysis of ORPH. I’m looking forward to CF’s riposte tomorrow. Might be a bit sparky. GLA
Ignore my previous post - not long woken up, and just read other subsequent posts . GLA
If we have to wait until June for a deal to be completed, then will we need to do a fundraise sometime between now and then, as as cash looks tight? GLA
Ding - I agree with you that CF meant 100m to 200m and that ORPH will be valued at 1 billion within 6 months, probably $1B dollars though.
CF has in the past deliberately managed share price expectations (under promise but overdeliver) but we’re fast approaching the period whereby the investment fundamentals of ORPH cannot be held back and the share price will rise to reflect this.
Invesco will soon be out, thus taking off the anchor holding back the share price rise.
Non core assets will be monetised in some way within the next 3 or 4 months or so turbo boosting ORPH’s value.
ORPH should then be issuing an RNS in June 2021 with financial results for the year to 31-12-20 and this normally includes future guidance for trading for the rest of 2021 (last year the RNS was posted 24/6/20 and included ‘post year highlights’). The main highlight should obviously be guidance on profits. The market will value a profit making Company much more favourably than a loss making one. Big institutional investors will also then want to buy and hold stock (most cannot invest in loss making Companies)
Will investors care that CF’s assertion of “doubling the share price every six months” is blown out of the water? Answers on a postcard please to....
GLA