Member Info for PeterS23

Re earlier post; by “results are good” I’m referring chiefly to the forward looking statement for 2021 sales and profits. GLA

MilkM, ditto- I was typing whilst you posted! GLA

Kilgeever - presume you mean 7am and 4.30pm? An alternative scenario to that you’ve offered is that results are good and therefore there will be a clammer for stock thus raising the share price on that day. Given, however, there’s only one day to buy, the share price increase will be less than it perhaps would be if buying took place over a few days or a week. Therefore if CF is planning to buy substantial shares the following day, he’ll be able to buy at a ‘better’ price under this scenario. All good conjecture. Time will tell which it is. GLA

Nice 1 again Wally

Ditto

Here’s a link that Barwickman first posted here about a week ago or so.

https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2021/05/10/open-orphan-spinning-off-non-core-assets-challenge-studies-ascend/

The article appears to be based upon a conversation with CF, and I’ve cut and pasted below a paragraph I found interesting as it may provide some further guidance as to the annual sales figure for 2021, which should be revealed in the forward guidance section of the forthcoming RNS for 2020 Annual accounts.

“Friel said the day for challenge studies has arrived as demand spiked in the wake of the pandemic. In previous years, hVIVO usually completed 2-3 challenge studies per year. However, that has increased to potentially 10 this year, with as many as 20 studies planned for next year”

From the above, that’s 10 for 2021, and 20 for 2022. I’d therefore hazard a guess that the 2021 sales are likely to be in the range of £35m to £45m but happy to be corrected. Anyone else got an opinion on this? TIA. GLA

Not only a potential great income earner for LIT but this should be well publicised in the national press too. GLA

Trek, thanks for your detailed input on this and the points you’ve highlighted. Much appreciated. GLA

Invested here back in February when price was close to its 3 year peak so currently down about 20% (doh) but very chilled about it. Just know this is a great space and Company to be invested in, with outstanding prospects from here. Definitely one for my SIPP.

On the asphalt front, the UK trial was completed last year I think in June. From my experience in the industry these trials don’t move quickly though so don’t expect news soon. After laying the material on site, there is always an extended period of site inspection and lab testing of the materials laid before the material is added to the product range of any of the major suppliers (eg Tarmac). Assuming the Kent trial material is currently performing as anticipated, it may still be a couple more years at least before we see graphene enhanced asphalt on the market in the UK. The effect of rainwater (silting up the asphalt) and ice on its performance will have to be observed too.

Other countries in Europe, and states in the USA, however, may well move more quickly before adopting the technology, particularly those with less inclement weather than the UK. Let’s hope so, as I feel a massive market opportunity is now primed to break out here.

Trek, on a separate point, I note from your post below that you subscribe to Research Tree. I do too, and would much appreciate it if you could have a look at the ‘Proactive’ report of 12th Nov 20 on Litigation Capital Management (LIT). Any comments you may have can be posted on the LIT board though as obvs don’t belong here. TIA. GLA

I think Cathal positivity, and work ethic so far has been good for us all and I wouldn’t want him to reign it in. He’s always been careful in my opinion to reign in the positivity where he felt the share price “was getting ahead of itself” as he said “institutions don’t like big swings”. So far, up to now, he’s “managed” to avoid such a swing. (NB The share dip back in the Autumn was due to extraneous events (Covid Vaccination news from Pfizer et al) which caught the world a little by surprise in its timing. All stocks operating in the “Covid” space (even on a minor level) were affected so we can’t lay that dip at CF’s door)

This dip, however, is a mixture of a normal retrace in the share price from a relatively sudden high but also, IMO, from the action of sanctioning the broker note from Investec and letting it into the market. This has caused a “run” on the share price and exacerbated normal market movement here.

Maybe, at circa 45p, CF thought the share price was getting a little ahead of itself and the share price needed cooling a little to stop it accelerating away. If this is the case, and this is highly speculative, then the forthcoming profit and loss guidance for 2021 (due out soon with the 2020 Annual results) could be a lot more muted than the speculative guesses recently posted on here by myself and others. If this is the case then maybe CF feared the share price was in danger of running up to say 60p before annual results, only to the fall back to 40p/45p on results publication, which wouldn’t be a good outcome for all shareholders but particularly all newbies.

Furthermore although things have moved on in the last few months with regard to the non core assets monetisation, there hasn’t been anything official with regard to the actual monetary value or guidance that any of them will potentially realise. A bit more hype than substance so to speak, and therefore we’re also now seeing that play out in the share price ATM.

The annual results, with forward guidance on 2021 profits, are now key to putting some stability into the share price and removing speculation and investor anxiety. These should be issued without any further delay (it’s been five and a half months since the year end) and I’m hopeful they will be, given the events of the last few days. I believe they will also provide a decent lift to today’s share price even if the 2021 guidance is at the lower end of expectations. GLA

Ok, I’ve first got to fess up and admit I’ve sold a portion on my ORPH shares over the last week or so, finishing today. The reason is to rebalance my investment portfolio. I’ve posted in the past that I, like a lot of others here, was extremely top heavy in the percentage that ORPH represented in my portfolio. The very recent surge in the stock price only exacerbated that and only increased my unease as ORPH represented nearly 70% of my portfolio. I’ve rebalanced it so it now only represents some 45% of my portfolio and I have also bought another researched stock which I think/hope will now go on the same upward trajectory as ORPH has achieved.

According to most experts, this 45% is still way beyond the recommended % that an investor should hold in one stock, but I can’t bring myself to sell any more knowing what ORPH will be delivering in the coming 6 months or so.

The reason I’m fessing up is purely to demonstrate that there may be quite a few investors who like me are taking some profits and/or rebalancing their portfolio too, given ORPH has surged some 785% from its low point in 2020 to its recent high. I’m very hopeful this should go no lower than 35p and recover quickly from there. A retrace and consolidation which is quite the norm. The 2020 P&L will be filed soon enough and the forward guidance for 2021 will show it as being profitable. That should bring more investors on board, and particularly more II investment, as a lot of II’s simply cannot or will not invest in unprofitable companies. Then further flesh on the bones from CF re the non core assets and £1.00 by early 2022 is my expectation.. GLA

Over on ADV-FN , Bwilder2 has posted that this has been recently incorporated with CF at the helm.

GLA

Glad to be of assistance JayneC. There are quite a number of posters on this board who’s contribution I’ve found invaluable in helping me make this my largest holding too. GLA

Further to yesterdays post, Arden issued an updated broker research note on 13th of April, and had estimated ORPH profits for 2022 of £16.5m (on sales of £75.7m). Thus the core ORPH business, on a PE ratio of 30, would have a market cap of £495m (or 74.1p per share)

Yesterday I posted figures from Stockopedia which gave an estimated profit of £7.11m for 2021 and this was on estimated sales of £44m. The consensus of opinion of this chat board and also over on a-d-v-f-n, however, is that the sales figures for 2021 were/are considerably understated by all the brokers (and therefore Stockopedia)

The evidence for this is twofold;

Firstly, by a crude addition of RNS published information regarding signed contract values in the bag for 2021, the opinion on the chat boards was that 2021 sales would be circa £70m. On this basis, the projected 2022 profits and sales forecast from these brokers are actually set to be closer to the 2021 profits and sales.

Secondly, and more pertinently, the broker reports noted that their projections for 2021 were based on sales from ORPH’s 24 bed facility. Thus sales from the new facility, now up and running from February 2021, are not included in the brokers forecasts. On this point CF was asked in a online presentation about these inaccurate broker notes, and he stated, words to the effect that “it’s not the brokers fault, they just need updating by us, we’ve been very busy on other things but it’s something we need to do”.

For these reasons, I am hopeful that when CF publishes the 2020 P&L figures next month or in June, his notes on forward guidance on sales for 2021 will show sales figures of circa £70m for 2021, and thus projected net profits of circa £15m. Whatever they are, the figures are set to be considerably better than the broker notes.

In fact, it’s also been speculated on here that 2020 figures may even show a small profit, given CF has stated recently that the figures may be “pleasantly surprising”.

At this point, the wider market, and II’s in particular, will have tangible hard figures to digest, which will facilitate greater investment from them also. DYOR. GLA

Further to yesterdays post, Arden issued an updated broker research note on 13th of April, and had estimated ORPH profits for 2022 of £16.5m (on sales of £75.7m). Thus the core ORPH business, on a PE ratio of 30, would have a market cap of £495m (or 74.1p per share)

Yesterday I posted figures from Stockopedia which gave an estimated profit of £7.11m for 2021 and this was on estimated sales of £44m. The consensus of opinion of this chat board and also over on a-d-v-f-n, however, is that the sales figures for 2021 were/are considerably understated by all the brokers (and therefore Stockopedia) . The evidence for this is twofold;

Firstly, by a crude addition of RNS published information regarding signed contract values for 2021, the opinion on the chat boards was that 2021 sales would be circa £70m. On this basis, the projected 2022 profits and sales forecast from these brokers are actually set to be closer to the 2021 profits and sales.

Secondly, and more pertinently, the broker reports noted that their projections for 2021 were based on sales from ORPH’s 24 bed facility. Thus sales from the new facility, now up and running from February 2021, are not included in the brokers forecasts. On this point CF was asked in a online presentation about these inaccurate broker notes, and he stated, words to the effect that “it’s not the brokers fault, they just need updating by us, we’ve been very busy on other things but it’s something we need to do”.

For these reasons, I am hopeful that when CF publishes the 2020 P&L figures next month or in June, his notes on forward guidance on sales for 2021 will show sales figures of circa £70m for 2021, and thus projected net profits of circa £15m. Whatever they are, the figures are set to be considerably better than the broker notes.

In fact, it’s also been speculated on here also that 2020 figures may even show a small profit, given CF has stated recently that the figures may be “pleasantly surprising”.

At this point, the wider market, and II’s in particular, will have tangible hard figures to digest, which will drive a market re-rating of ORPH.
GLA

Interestingly this median number is today listed as 46.4 on Stockopedia. Thus on this PE ratio, ORPH should be valued at £329 million (49p per share) but this ratio of course ignores the value of ALL non core assets. (Online investor comments from CF indicates another circa £350m minimum of value for these)

Moreover this £329 million is reached using Stockopedia’s net profit projection of £7.11 million for 2021. This £7.11m will be what one of the brokers has previously guided, and only takes into account income from one 24 bed quarantine unit, not the three currently being used. Thus it’s reasonable to expect this net profit figure to perhaps double (or more) when CF updates the market, and us, probably in May 21 or June 21 by way of an RNS when 2020 figures are published.

If it did double to £15m, then on a PE of just 30 (not 41.6) this would give ORPH’s core business a valuation of £450m, which equates to 67.3p per share.

NB I’ve not used the median PE ratio 41.6 as some of the Companies included in the 58 are much more speculative (drug development)in nature than ORPH, hence I think 30 is much more prudent and realistic for ORPH’s core services business.

Add in £350m for non core assets (another 52p per share) and we reach a sum of all parts total of £800m, or £1.19p per share.

CF has said many times in the past he believes ORPH will hit a valuation of “a billion dollars” and the above calculation fits in with that. DYOR

GLA

Furthermore re Stockopedia, a further post that day read

“ORPH is in the ‘Bio & Medical Research’ sector which has a price earning ratio of 31.9”

Stockopedia lists 58 Companies in this sector, and 31.9 was the median number of those 58 Companies.

PS - Stockopedia puts ORPH in the ‘Bio & Medical research’ sector which has an P/E ratio of 31.9

GLA

Published today and has a neat summary of 4 non core assets.

Also shows ORPH’s current Price Earnings ratio is 32, falling to 20 in 2022. (Obviously excludes all non core assets).

Hence it demonstrates that ORPH’s core business is currently correctly valued, but also undervalued on a foreword looking basis.

But it is significantly undervalued when you add the potential value of 4. non core assets.

https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/non-core-opportunities-for-open-orphan/

Hence it demonstrates that ORPH’s core business is currently correctly valued, but also undervalued on a foreword looking basis for its core business.

But also that it is significantly undervalued when you add the potential value of 4 non core assets.

Safest investment on AIM. IMO.

GLA

11 year old car. Love this demonstration of CF’s parsimony. No expensive and unnecessary “funnies” with shareholders money. Would hate to go the pub with him though. Probably only ever puts his hand in his pocket to scratch his balls ;-) GLA