Member Info for PeterS23

Scooby, it’s possible that another fund could buy out Invesco’s stake but CF stated in a presentation recently that he’d approached Invesco about another II or II’s buying the stock but they wanted to sell direct into the market. It appears Invesco still have belief in ORPH, just that they’re set on a policy of selling down the Woodford investments (e.g IP Group also recently for £60m +) as new fund managers have been appointed there who want to stamp their authority and direction on investments. Therefore in order to maximise their investment in ORPH they’re selling incrementally into a rising market. Each to their own..

On the point of 4-6 weeks notice, my experience (albeit very limited) is that “expected” news with a fixed time date leads to a gradual increase in the share price right up to the news being revealed. “Buy on the rumour, sell on the news” is often quoted in this respect. I think CF has maybe given this “4-6 weeks” news deliberately in order to support the share price through this period.

Obviously not many will be “selling on the news” given the conveyor belt of more good news that is due to follow afterwards. IMO. GLA

Spot on Citizen - I thought I’d done well (lucky really) in building the majority of my shareholding in ORPH last year against a background of Link/Acacia persistently selling and suppressing the share price. I remember commenting on here that the Link selling action served new buyers well. Ergo I could by more ORPH shares for the money I had available at that time.

Similar opportunity now exists for any new investors, except the Company stability, forward looking projections and opportunities for ORPH are now more concrete and exciting than ever. Therefore, at circa 28p a share ORPH is better placed now to multi bag (3 x plus) than it was last year when I built my stake.IMO. GLA

Heff, I respectfully suggest you read Trader 3’s post of yesterday at 18:27, as this is completely at odds with your first post here which opens “I’ve been thinking...” GLA

Just caught the end. CF summarised near the end;

“Buckle up hold on tight we’re going to have a fun year ahead, I’ve never been as motivated or excited in my life”

Say no more.

GLA

Great summary Trader 3. Promised myself I wouldn’t invest any more funds here as I’m top heavy already, but after reading that post I’m tempted again. GLA

Hi Extrader - had a read of your comments re SYME and also contacted a friend of mine who subscribes to Shsre Prophets. It appears the TW allegation is also that term sheets has been wrongly booked in the accounts as revenue (not to be done under IFRS rules ) and TW has written to the authorities to inform them of this, hence the accounts will have to be re-written showing no revenue. Like you, I think I’ll not be investing there atm and investing more here in ORPH. ATB

I agree, and have no doubt the new appointee will be of the right calibre. CF wasted little time when he took over in culling the dead wood who were previously just content with taking big salaries and “funnies” (to quote CF). The staff that were kept will have been the most productive and he’s empowered them too in order to produce more. Ditto any new staff. I hope, but am not sure, that all staff are included in a decent share option scheme so that we shareholders can know that every employee, not just CF and the top brass, will be working their socks off every day to enhance ORPH’s prospects. GLA

Hi Extrader- just been browsing Morningstar and read a story re SYME, which I considered investing in some months ago, and might take a very small speculative investment there again. Popped over to their board for a browse of the chat to get updated and noticed you were posting there too. Also, have you read the Share Prophet allegations?

PS ORPH is my major shareholding so apologies in advance to all for posting this here but I figured Extrader could reply here without having to suffer any detrimental comments from SYME posters if he said anything negative to say regarding the investment case for SYME. GLA

Thanks Extrader and others for your replies. GLA

Extrader - I noticed in CF’s presentation on Wednesday that he spoke briefly about the possibility of purchasing more shares himself (a possibility you flagged up just before the presentation) but CF said might be excluded for some reason or another. Do you (or anybody else here) know what this means in practice exactly? TIA

Demon, I’d too would be in favour of a buy back of shares at today’s market price, but not if Invesco want a higher price now in order to get a deal done. Why should Invesco make an enhanced profit, in a buy back, which would be at other shareholders expense, when they are the cause of the share price being held back? This share price is only going one way and the Invesco sales will only slow it down temporarily, but will not stop it reaching its destination price, whatever that might be. GLA

Can’t get a singing John Barnes out of my head when I read this :-). GLA

Keep your house. Sell the car. Sell the white goods & furniture. Sell the kids’ toys. Sell your golf clubs and Xbox. Buy some more shares here. GLA

Extrader - think you’re very possibly onto something there with your speculation that CF may personally be wanting to buy more shares in ORPH.

He’s said this is heading towards being a “billion dollar Company” so why then let your brokers issue updates which suppress the good news story?

My understanding is that he still owns 9% or £33m of Amryt Pharma Plc (current market cap of £366m). However, they’re not that close to profitability as yet, though things set for big improvement in 2020 estimated sales of £180m, from £58m and £17m in 2019 and 2018 respectively. They’ve taken on new II investors in 2020 also (unlike ORPH hove had a net loss of II investors)

I think it’s probably very difficult therefore for him to sell any holding there at present to purchase more ORPH shares as it wouldn’t look good at this point in time and would undermine market confidence and the share price. Also he may be barred from selling for a period on the back of agreements with new II’s who’ve recently bought in there? Maybe the time bar is set to expire in the very near future allowing him to sell some shares there?

All speculation of course, but it’s the only explanation that makes sense to me for CF constantly keeping a lid on the share price.

GLA

Finncap report issued on 6-1-21, less than a month ago said ;

“Open Orphan is in negotiations to secure a new quarantine facility in 2021”

“Forecasts exclude potential revenue from a new quarantine facility”

Very strange today’s update hasn’t increased the target price based upon increased revenue. Incompetence or intentional?

GLA

I agree. CF’s often spoken about not letting the share price get ahead of itself. I can’t see a scenario where the broker would go rogue and produce its own findings which contravene what the ORPH management would like to be portrayed to the market. GLA

Thanks VanVan for the clarification

Invested a relatively small amount of my SIPP here because of the promise of it being a dividend (and growth stock), and good management too. Does anyone know if a divi is still likely? If so, any idea when? TIA

CF’s moving to London don’t forget. Could be the new family abode ; - )

Metaltiger - Don’t think you must have you’ve seen my 3 posts on Thursday this week about Ergomed (ERGO) but the general thrust is that declared profitability (RNS’s) is what has drove their share price up. Oh, and ORPH is way undervalued by way of comparison, based on ORPH’s forward earnings multiple. GLA