Member Info for PEAKDREAD

Every article seems to follow the same formulaic approach - heap praise on the company, explain how the company SP is doing amazingly well and then explain the author won't be investing (due to debt / covid 2 / recession / etc, etc) and instead will be watching the share intently.....(as it continues to rise like a phoenix :-) :-) ) - Obviously followed by an advert procliming the next article will give you an insight into the best shares of 2023 - It's just embarrassing.

Can find anything with regarss to Teeside going with Westinghouse SMR on the group chat..

Have Westinghouse already won a uk smr contract ??

The mayor of teeside (yes, you read that right - MAYOR) thinks he's getting into a deal with Westinghouse and some "private investors" to build the first SMR's in the uk. This has got nothing to do with the Government contract to build SMR's and has very, very little chance of bearing fruit - The project would cost Billions - IMHO it's just way, way too expensive to get off the ground - Can you imagine the chaos when the build figures double - Can you imagine the "great" deal the mayor will negotiate for electricity... It just aint gonna happen.....

Can anyone explain what Perry is trying to say here? Specifically what was Perry trying to get at with "Perry said that LTSA advances represent cash that will not fully accrue" - Was he basically saying that a hefty proportion of the long term service agreement was being paid up front and put into the books as "cash" whereas in reality this money was being paid (in advance) for a service that hadn't been given yet???

"(Sharecast News) - JP Morgan has upgraded its rating for aerospace engineer Rolls-Royce from 'neutral' to 'overweight' and hiked its target price for the stock from 235p to 400p.

"In April 2018, just after RR published the impact of IFRS 15 on its balance sheet, we argued that RR had far higher LTSA (long-term service agreements) customer advances on its balance sheet than it had previously disclosed," said analyst David Perry.

Perry said that LTSA advances represent cash that will not fully accrue, which has been the primary reason JP Morgan has rated the shares either 'underweight' or 'neutral' since April 2018.

"We now update our thinking on this topic. Whilst we have not changed our view that LTSA advances should be treated as a debt-like item, we now believe that a much higher percentage of RR's LTSA advances will convert into profit (ie. unencumbered cash that RR can retain and use as its wishes)," Perry said.

He said this was because of "radical moves" made by Rolls-Royce's chief executive Tufan Erginbilgiç, who joined in January 2023, like raising the price the company charges for its LTSAs and a £400-500m cost reduction programme announced last month.

The stock was up 3.4% at 286.2p by 0837 GMT."

"In my post last week I said £3 by the end of this week. I also think that come February/March 24 we will be at £6"

I'm all for a bit of optimism and am struggling to get used to RR moving in the right direction on a consistant basis..... However £6 by Feb/March seems a bit out there?? Would love that to happen but I'm struggling to visualise it.

So a private consortium is in league with a (checks notes...) "mayor" and aims to build 4 SMR's. I have a gut feeling RR (or whoever wins the Government contract to build the government funded SMR's) will complete their builds before this project even starts.

According to the article below (which is quite recent) the general public own 23% of RR shares - still a small percentage. 275 + will be a very healthy close - especially considering the tendancy for RR to have a bit of a wobble on a Friday (pointed out by someone on here a few weeks ago - I had a quick look and the dips were there...). Extremely positive week :-)

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/lse-rr./rolls-royce-holdings-shares/news/rolls-royce-holdings-plcs-lonrr-institutional-investors-lost-1

Thanks Sullysworld.

Assuming I fill my head with Weinsteins stage analysis (which i intend to do...) what's the new product that everybody's using?

"Had a brief look at the stock chart of 'trainline', this chart made me sad and I never wish to look at it again."

For the uninnitiated chart luddites on the forum (I firmly class myself in this category..) - What excatly made you sad about Trainline?

Just the idea of shorting scares the bejesus out of me - I know you have a good track record in these matters and I wish you all the best but I prefer to sleep at night rather than worry about how many 1000's I may be losing if the SP goes the wrong way.

I've burnt too many fingers chasing big gains with companies I've never heard of.... RBG turned out nicely (thanks NTC) - but other than that I've not had much luck..... Talking of RBG - I see it's back at 17 - would those in the know consider it to be a buy again?

Take a chill pill Mararab.

Reports from the time suggested "Tim" wasn't happy with the length of time the engines were on the wing for between services. They need more frequent servicing because of the dusty / sandy conditions in that part of the world which give the engines a bit of a battering - I don't think it's anything to do with "reliability" - more to do with more frequent servicing requirements which adds cost to the totalcare package and creates more downtime.

"Mararab, strange that 1 day after that statement, Emirates announced a further purchase of 15 A350's which as you know are powered by Rolls-Royce engines.How do account for that?"

I'm no expert Cev but I think they ordered the 15 A350 "900"'s - I think Tim has issues with the A350 1000 which uses a slightly different engine.

The Trent XWB-84 is for A350-900 and the Trent XWB-97 is for A350-1000.

Why are you ..."praying for another bull…t pandemic."??? How's that going to help anyone? Unless you've shorted it??

"Peakdread > Not to forget Turkey is dealing with 40% interest rates and an Inflation Rate averaging 34.90 per cent from 1965 until 2023, not an easy ride for the country's Largest airway company to navigate given all the commercial headwinds."

I'm afraid I was blissfully unaware of the present economic situation in Turkey - they're mind boggling stats - note to self - be more aware.....

"Peak, I was actually thinking yesterday if we had the smr news early and it was good, it may have over shadowed all the good news so far, I would rather it was spread out."

Agreed - spreading out good news has got to be good for RR - fine balancing act though to stop leaks making you look a bit daft...

Onwards and upwards.....

There must be quite a large sticking point on the deal - otherwise it would have surely been announced on Captial Markets Day?? Unless they're trying to spread the good news out (is that a thing?).

I think I get it now. Sell 51% of rr smr but rr still make all the goods for rr smr...cash in and share the profits of the final product whilst making a ton of money supplying the product to rr smr.... its a no brainer.

Please ignore my figures - Warsaw appears to be in the know - my points - however simplistic - still hold.

NTC... Forgive me for being thick.... So Tufan has suggested he wants to be a minority shareholder in RR's SMR venture. So if RR currently own 85% of RR SMR he could sell 36% to retain 49%? I understand selling the stake in RR SMR may be lucrative in the short term - however in the long term rather than retaining 85% of the profits RR will only be retaining 49% of the profits. So whilst on the one hand he will generate some useful cash (I have no idea what 36% of RR SMR could be worth??) he will also be kissing goodbye to 36% of the future profits of RR SMR?? Why is selling an assett which has the capability of generating Billions such a good thing - Is it the "spreading the risk aspect?", paying off debts with the innitial sale aspect? Bringing in partners who will strengthen the brand aspect? bringing in partners who have deep pockets as the projects are eye wateringly expensive aspect? All of the above?

I've never worked in big business but am hopeful my response isn't too wide of the mark? I suppose what I'm also asking is why you find this so noteworthy? It's not as if RR hasn't done partnerships with other companies in the past - Would this be a partnership on a much grander scale than has ever been seen before. Would attempting to go it alone and turning your back on investors be folly?

I'm afraid I missed the webinar. Has anyone got any idea what his problem with Royce's is? For an "expert" in aerospace to be so out of sink with his peers he's either got personal beef, knowledge of impending doom that everyone else is unaware of or.... he's just not very good at his job. The whole situation is bizarre...

Makes you wonder what David Perry has been smoking....