Member Info for PEAKDREAD

I've got some explaining to do to my wife if it holds it's current trajectory..... I had one job......

Very good Badland. I think datacentres need "micro" SMR's ??? You would have thought Royce's are going to be pretty good at that (with the subs and moon nuke experience??)

Who's going to sell in the hope of buying back when it goes back down to 540... I know if I do there'll be an announcement tomorrow which boosts it 20 or 30p higher. I've managed to sell and buy back a few times but never been wildly succesfull at it - I just don't have the cahones.

Hi Cev,

If you mean David Perry - he's the one who naysayed Royce's for ages before eventually backing them. His "results" aren't too pretty - "According to TipRanks, Perry has an average return of 1.9% and a 54.70% success rate on recommended stocks."

I know nothing about Buffet apart from the fact he spotted Apple early and went all in. There was the odd rumour flying around not that long ago that he was predicting a bit of a crash (and hence sold shed loads of Apple stock) - The crash doesn't appear to have materialised - and as I say it was a rumour based on him selling a lot of assetts and becoming very cash rich - people assumed he was cashing in and waiting to mop up when the market came crashing down...He's obviously quite bright and sticks to some very tried and tested rules - When I tried branching out from the one trick pony called RR I had very mixed results - However despite my tunnel vision approach to share dealing it's working out quite well so far :-)

I really don't see the point of the Berenberg chap - He's made his hill and he's going to sit on it even as RR cruises towards £7....

And there were many of us thinking £7 by Feb 2025 was a bit of a stretch when some crazy guy who thinks he's a cat starting proclaiming it 2 years ago.... TBF £10 / £11 / £12 isn't that bonkers when you consider RR has effectively added a brand new product too its portfolio which has a world wide appeal and similar barriers to entry as their current product. What's not to like...

My wife gave me some of her hard earned cash to invest on Monday... I've dillied and I've dallied. I know if I put it into anything but RR I'll get FOMO and end up selling it and investing in the beast that is RR (at a higher price). Looks like I've dilly dallied a bit too long now..... Where's the pull back :-)

Some of the Analyst targets are looking a bit out of date at the moment. IG's accumulated average suggests an average target price of 548.47. Phil Buller at Berengerg is still sticking to his guns with a sell rating and a target of 240..... The only other "non-believer" is George Zhao at Bernstein who has a "hold" rating (at a much more respectable target price of 550).... Jeffereies and UBS are very much on board with target prices of 640. Hopefully some re-rates in the coming days / weeks.... Although from what I've seen the market doesn't tend to react much to them.

Svend strikes again :-) Would be nice if it can retain the 550 / 555 level.

Whilst I wouldn't put it past a politician to buy a few RR shares prior to announcing RR have won the SMR contract I don't think they'd award it to another company to make a few thousand. Yes, Pelosi has famously done well on the stock market... if you actually analyse the stocks she has bought (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Tesla) it's not as if she's doing much other than bettng on pretty large tech companies to do well (which many other people have done). Not convinced there is much nefarious activity in her dealings - however I can't say I'm an expert. As far as Biden is concerned - Hunter's 5 year spell on the board of Burisma (which ended in 2019) is the only Ukrainian "involvement" the Bidens have with Ukraine - although again I must confess I am no expert on this matter.

Awarding the vast majority of the contrat to RR (and keeping taxes / wages in the UK) seems an absolute no brainer. As far as the cost of SMR - once you take into account it's a 10 year project whilst obviously expensive it's not mind bogglingly expensive - plus isn't one of the advantages of SMR the relative lack of slippage / overrun of costs?? You'd also be kick starting a whole industry which could prove to be HUGE in the next 10 years. Unless I'm missing something SMR is set to take up a very large proportion of energy creation in the future - we need to be at the very forefront of that industry - kicking the project down the road or gifting it to a US based company makes ZERO sense.

i spoke to a rr engineer a few months ago who suggested a fix had been identified and had increased time on the wing to the levels emirates were looking for - however it still needed to go through the testing phase. i've been hoping "the emirates deal" would come back - i remember it was talked of as a done deal last year until emirates pulled out and (rather rudely) ****ged off rr's durability issues... i'm sure tufan is all over it, however i haven't seen any official update.

The only things that could stop my "prediction" are the UK Government draggings its heals, RR announcing an unforseen issue with an engine or a massive world economic event (china invading Taiwan / Huge terrorist attack on airlines / Covid part 2 etc, etc). Touching every available wooden surface within my vicinity.... RR really is as safe a bet as you're going to get - Obviously there are other shares which could outperform RR over the next 6 months - however there are very few blue chip companies with the levels of potential SP growth that RR has - most have been riding the bull wave for the last 3 years and have done well - but RR has not ony come out of Covid leaner and fitter - it's also come out carrying a new product under its arm - a product which could double the size of the company in the next 10 years - and I've not even mentioned narrow body.... :-)

Imagine if we can consolidate around 550 / 560 this month.... get SMR go ahead from the UK in November (that's got to be worth 5 or 6 %???), pick up an order from Sweden / Poland or the Netherlands in December / January (another 5 or 6%?) and have results which show massive profits / increased margins / no debt and a firmed up dividend in February....(8 or 9% increase??). That gets us to 680 ish - and then you've got general bullish market which is adding 1 or 2 % per month without even announcing anything..... £7+ after results day... (Not forgetting Novembers interims - undoubtedly will be impressive and kick the SP another 3 or 4%???)

re: "i wouldn't vote for any of them, i am just saying instead of the dude who doesn't know what day it is, and the looney woman."

i presume you mean president biden as the "dude who doesn't know what day it is" - he's not running for president - although he has overseen something of an economicc miracle - take a look at the us stock market, unemployment rate, inflation as some evidence.

as for the "looney woman" - i presuume you are referring to kamala harris - who has sensible economic policy which will help the us economy grow steadily over the next 4 years - not sure exactly where you get loony from?? coherrent (yes), not a narcissistic sociopath (yes), sensible policy on womens rights (abortion) - yes, able to speak for 20 minutes without talking about sharks / electric boats / wind turbines casuing cancer and how the previous election was rigged and stolen (yes).

i'm hoping the msm is trying to make the election look a lot closer than it is in order to improve its ratings.... in any sensible universe trump wouldn't get 10% of the vote - unfortunately he has a hardcore following of maga which accounts for 35% and some hangers on which bump him into the 40's.

if you took the names off the ticket and presented the policies of both candidates kamala would win 80% of the vote. 20% of the us population are hardcore ******s so will vote for the candidate vowing to deport 10million "illegals" - interesting to note how many times trumps businesses have been fined for employing "illegals".... also interesting to ponder who exactly is going to do the 10 million jobs which will be left open when you take 10 million people out of the workforce??? "illegals" don't sit around and claim benefits - they work - damned hard.

just as an aside have you heard the rhetoric trump spews - "foreigners are poisoning the blood" - "foreigners are poising the gene pool" - this isn't just "hitleresque" it's direct hitler quotes.

also interesting when pressed about immigration a few years ago trumps said he's be happy for norweigans to come over (blond haired white people....).

anyways - this is a rr thread - i just can't resist when people start suggesting the orange muppet would somehow be a good choice.

RE: "Like I have always said, get a Businessman in charge."

He's a 6 times bankrupt "businessman" who wants to increase tarriffs to 100% to "help" the economy. His understanding of economics is abysmal. He wants to decrease the taxes for the super rich (and business) and increase the tax on the middle class. He's a grade A idiot. Quite how the election is close is beyond me. Americans have the choice of voting for someone who will enrich himself and his fellow millionaires / billionaires whilst crapping on the middle / lower class or voting for someone who wants to decrease tax for honest working Americans and increase tax on those that can afford it (those earning over $400k / year) more.

These are facts from his "economic policy" NOT political talking points.

https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2024/trumps-economic-policies-could-stoke-inflation-and-hurt-us-economy

"Since 1933, the (US) economy has grown at an annual average rate of 4.6 percent under Democratic presidents and 2.4 percent under Republicans"(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_by_presidential_party#:~:text=The%20New%20York%20Times%20reported,2.4%20percent%20under%20Republicans...)

I follow US politics closely and am amazed at trumps support - it's a cult - pure and simple. When he loses in November he will attempt to cut a deal to avoid prison - and he will threaten to unleash MAGA and cause chaos if Harris does not agree. I sincerely hope Harris doesn't buckle and he stands trial for both the Jan 06th insurrestion and the documents case - He's now reported to have had 7 calls with Putin post Presidency!!!! - This is when he was in (illegal) possession of top secret documents containing the names of foreign agents - there was a "surprising" spike in the number of spies killed and detained which coincided with trump having illegal access to these documents (and now it transpires being on the phone to putin....). Fox news (yes, the MAGA Fox news reporting on this below).

https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-fbi-raid-could-some-connection-murdered-cia-assets-msnbcs-joy-reid-speculates

Sorry, as I've said I foollow US politics closely and trump is a joke - who is also showing early signs of dementia and is quite easily identified as a Narcissistic sociopath. If he wins we are all in trouble...

Hi Svend, I've always enjoyed your commentary and am impressed with your predictive powers (whenever I have hosted a "guess the price on X date" you have always been there or there abouts).

Could you explain to me where you get your predictions from? (ie the 555 mentioned in your latest post). If you could word your reply as if you are trying to explain it to the winner of the village idiot of the year award I would appreciate it. All the best, Peak.

Good stuff Svend.... Just looked up projected air travel for 2025 / 2026 and there seems to be a consensus it's going to increase by quite a bit (5 or 6% / year). Dividends will be a huge boost. I notice you didn't even mention SMR in your good news - We have the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and of course the UK who are all potentially going to place orders with RR for SMR. Then we have some large orders that have been on the back burner for eons - Emirates??. Let's not forget RR anouncing it is debt free (or pretty darned close to debt free) in February. It would also be folly to dismiss out of hand RR re-entering the narrow body market - Obviously this isn't an overnight thing - however announcing a partner and a goal would be a huge boon to the SP. I'm sure Cev or someone else also mentioned some really secret squirrel technology RR was involved in which could be game changing..... able to spill the beans yet Cev??

Just imagine if most of the above came off next year (and the world was able to avoid massive war (yes, I know RR profits (to some extent) from war - however war also equals disruption and uncertainty which the market abhors) or indeed any other huge macro economic calamity.

The sky really is the limit with good headwinds and a lack of external noise....

They fall at the first hurdle by failing to recognise rr is not near a "12 month high" but is instead near an all time high. They consolidate their ineptitude by using a non adjusted graph which doesn't take into account share dilution. Amateurs.

Good spot Berny. When Tufan talks about pricing it reminds me of a RR worker I know who told me Tufan's grand plan was to charge more and it was going to be a disaster (he said when the policy was rolled out to the workers the general consensus was he didn't know what he was talking about and he shouldn't be messing with the pricing (for those that don't know RR's strategy has (for a long time) been to almost give the engines away (at close to cost price) and make money on the servicing contracts).... turns out he knows what he's talking about... I hope he sticks with RR for as long as possible - Tufan is a breath of fresh air.

Thank NTC. I've only dabbled in Platinum once before and it ripped me a new one. I found it very volatile - even when it was going up there would be sharp downward spikes - almost planned to throw out the novice traders.... I'll have a look but my experience with IG is somewhat mixed - still up overall but certainly haven't found a winning strategy :-) I think I lack the dedication to stare at screens constantly.....