Member Info for PEAKDREAD

I saw some half-wit post "It’s 1-0 to GE-Hitachi." with regards to RR losing out to GE Hitachi in Canada.... Not being a half-with myself I immediately thought about the Czech deal RR has already won (where they beat GE Hitachi). I'm afraid at this point I turned to my trusted friend Google to see if RR had won any other contracts - Nothing else I can see however they're still in contention for the Netherlands, Poland and the UK (obviously....). By my reckoning it's 1-1 with all to play for - and if RR doesn't get awarded the UK SMR deal next month.... As I've said before the only real "unknown" is what price RR have gone in at - I'd be surprised if they aren't in the ballpark of the other bids. Their technology is tip, top. Their pedigree is second to none...without wanting to get carried away with jingoism (and recognising this won't be a tick box within the selection process) they're BRITISH... It was politically expedient for the Canadians to award the contract to GE Hitachi - I can't see Starmer feeling compelled to throw the yanks a bone with our deal - and I doubt he has the ability to sway the process without it leaking out he has done so - which would led to a cocophony of court cases.

Https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/07/trump-poised-to-announce-trade-agreement-with-uk-00335094

Apparently so.

The orange one posted on his "truth" social last night that he is going to announce a trade deal at 10am today with a "major" country. Speculation is the country is the UK... I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.

Trello,

I know what you mean, however this is hardly their first rodeo and I believe it is now a well known fact that they are looking to enter into a JV on the narrow body (I spoke to an RR guy the other day who pretty much confirmed this and I believe it's been in the news...). RR (and Tufan in particular) doesn't strike me as the sort that will overpromise and under deliver - They will be well aware of the supply chain issues with regards to re-entering the narrow body market - I'm assuming entering into a JV will lessen the burden to some extent - a RR guy was talking me through the design process for a new engine - we're still a few years off actually producing a narrow body - however announcing an expected production date along with an explainer as to what aircraft the engine will be for will undoubtedly bump the SP significantly - production and supply chain issues may negatively affect the SP in a couple of years - but in the short term it will be seen as a big win / opportunity by investors.

There was a time, not so long ago, when RR went up day after day, week after week, month after month. There were no 1% drops.... It simply gained and gained... Now that it's reached somewhere near "fair value" it is more liable to fluctuate (both ways) - Obviously the Orange one hasn't helped and tensions in India and Pakistan probably arent helping. If we assume (with no further "good" news) that £8 is fair value we have too wait for SMR to bump it up to £9.50 and then narrow body announcement to bump it up another 1 or 2 £'s to £11 ish. Icing on the cake would be an announcement saying we've cracked the time on the wing issue and Emirates ordering a shed load of sparkly new engines..... Further SMR deals in Europe could bump it up another 1 or 2 £'s... So while it may be volatile at the moment there's plenty of good times ahead.

I've always thought positive smr news in June will add £1 minimum to the SP. As already mentioned the UK deal is the tip of the iceberg, there's plenty more deals in Europe RR are bidding for. RR's problem might end up being they have too much work and not enough capacity to fulfill the orders... a nice problem to have. Add narrow body engines to the equation and the SP could be 14 / 15 by the end of the year. Add fantastic results in Feb and we're breaking into the £16 - £18 range... obviously, all this fantastic growth could be tempered by the orange one although RR has proved it is pretty resilient in the long term when faced with questionable economic decisions emanating from the states. Thankfully RRs incredibly strong position (almost having a monopoly in its markets and being protected by very high barriers to entry) means even the most batsh t crazy economic policies from trump will only cause short term harm as the share follows the herd in the dips. Ultimately, RR, under Tufans leadership has transformed into a money making machine - only ww3, covid2 or a massive e engine fault can stop its progress. Ww3 - very unlikely, Covid 2 (probably won't be handled as badly as covid 1) and I very much doubt a massive engine fault is going to be discovered in engines that have performed extremely well for over a decade... the future is bright.

Hi Svend... Great positive post as ever.. Did you mean hundreds of billions?? At present RR has a market cap of 64B. With SMR (The UK deal will be a nice shot in the arm but the reality is the UK deal is but a drop in the ocean...) and a spanky new ultrafan engine for narrow body are we saying RR could double / treble / quadruple in value????? Mrs Peak will be very happy with me if this is the case....

Trump is greedy and obsessed with money - he's been given the keys to the worlds financial markets which he can boost and deflate at the drop of a hat / tweet. Anyone who thinks he somehow didn't profit from the shenanigans over the last few weeks needs their head examining. If you do believe trump is totally innocent please get in touch....I've got a bridge to sell you....

I'm sitting on my hands and praying the orange one hasn't done enough to throw the world into a depression / recession......

I hope Mr Starmer waits a few weeks before announcing the SMR results (assuming he's going to bring the decision forward to boost the economy). It would be a terrible shame for the SMR uplift to be lost in the clawback to £8. I'm assuming it's worth 50 - 100p so would be nice if it was announced when we hit £8 again....

A good day for a poll.... but I'm afraid I haven't got either the time nor inclination to start and man one.... I think a solid 8% rise - although is does nark me that pretty much everything has returned to normal (ish) and we're going to have to wait 2 or 3 weeks for it to hit 8 again....

I seriously don't get the nasty comments on here... It's almost as if people are jealous that NTC predicted £7 2 years out??? Why would you be jealous??? and surely if you had continually slated his prediction the first thing youd do when it came good would be say sorry or slide back under a rock???

It's now just down to how long the posturing with China will go on for. I suspect China will offer him an olive branch which will allow him to tell his "base" that he got one over the Chinese... In reality, after all this upset I doubt much will change - Just how much do you think him and his close associates made shorting the market? I'm guessing Billions.

I see trump is now boasting that countries are "kissing his ass" to make trade deals.... He's such a loser he has to crash the worlds economy to make friends...

I've stopped trying to make sense of it. Unfortunately we have a man with a huge amount of power and very limited capacity for strategic thought in charge.... What could possibly go wrong..... I'm leaving everythig alone until it sorts itself out. I increased my holding by selling high and buying low - more by accident than any skill... I'm just gonna sit on my hands and let those with the big cahones try and trade their way to millionaire status...

I think it will continue to be messy for weeks but I keep going back to the fundamentals - Nothing has changed with regards to the fundamentals. Out of all the crazy that is happening the one thing that could damage RR is a worldwide recession - which the Orange one seems hell bent of activating.... RR was not over priced at £8 - which in my mind means once trump has stopped throwing his toys out of his pram and declared a hollow victory against Chiiiiiina things should start to ease - I have a funny feeling the states aren't going to come out well from this - Whilst trump is "making deals" at the top he is pi55ing off people worldwide - people have long memorys...

The whole USA / China thing is just handbags. trump will be desperately looking for a way to back down without losing face - it all depends on whether China decides to make it easier for him to do so (by offering some sort of concession) or trump just has to lie his way out. trump taking on the whole world was always going to end badly (for the orange one) - he thinks he's a lot tougher than he is and has some halcyon image of the good old USA ruling the free world (it doesn't). I'm convinced he (or those close to him) have been betting on the market and made ungodly fortunes during this mess - Alongside being incredibly stupid and inept he is incredibly greedy. Give it a few weeks and it will have all settled down - the next question is has he done enough to tip the world into a recession???

I had this horrible thought that Mr Starmer may offer some of it to the Orange One in return for some trade concessions.... but I honestly don't think Starmer is that sort of person - He's a very straight laced individual. RR should get all of it (if you're looking at the bare facts). They are further along the approvals process than any of their rivals, they're British, they're financially sound, they have eons of experience working in Nuclear... The one thing none of us know is what they put in their bid (£ wise). Even if they turn out to be more expensive I doubt this will be a deciding factor - However having said all this I wouldn't be surprised if they only get 70 or 80% of the contract and the Government award the rrest to AN Other in order to hedge their bets... I hope Starmer doesn't bring the announcement forward - We could do with this news when RR is back to £8 / £8.50.... The rise will be lost in the general malaise otherwise.

"@ peakdread - I'm confused by your math - you say 10% below current and then you mention that was from £8.

How do you get £7.80 as a stop of 10% from £8.!!"

Because I didn't listen to my better half..... Which I am still being reminded about.....