Member Info for PEAKDREAD

Just heard her on the local radio banging on about home grown energy.... let's hope it's produced by home grown companies. The more I think about the possibility the orange one insisted on a piece of the action in return for lowering tariffs and agreeing a trade deal the more I think Starmer would have 1) been expecting it and 2) been well drilled in how to fob him off.... here's hoping.

I think HE1 put me off mining stocks.... although I did have a flutter on empire metals which has done very well. I'm afraid I just don't know enough about them to make an informed judgement. I suppose with a mining company it's a bit of a punt - when they hit oil / helium / gold you win the lottery but until they do you just feel like a mushroom - in the dark being fed 5h!t..... I personally prefer a stock which has a defined product / market turnover etc, etc....

Ntc, why are the.mining stocks at such a suppressed price and what will allow them to fly??

Fordm - you've hit the nail well and truly on the head - again - I'm going to attempt to stay away from politics - however I think it's important to see things for what they are - As I've stated - I was genuinely questioning why a reasonably small country would want to purchase 160 planes - etank suggests they like their planes to be modern - fair do's. On this occasion you might just give the orange one the benefit of the doubt - however when he flagrantly lines his own pockets from his job one learns to question actions that seem "odd". I prefer Cev when he talks about his travel and holidays (not RR related) - he actually seems nice when he's off topic himself.

Thanks etank. Not sure if Boeing will be able to keep their average plane age down with their lead times though :-)

I was merely pointing out I thought it was odd. No conspiracy - just facts. If you're telling me a $200 billion aerospace deal has "nothing to do with RR" you need your head examining. I'm still waiting for someone with way more knowledge than me to explain that buying 160 planes when you only have a fleet of 230 is perfectly normal - Unless you know the answer to this Cev I suggest you return to your pina colada and pick on some other unsuspecting numpty. Again - I stress this isn't a conspiracy theory - just an observation about a $200 billion aerospace deal.

Cev,

I was simply stating it's a bit weird for such a small country to be buying such an enormous number of planes - which makes you wonder whether the quatari's are throwing money at the trump administration on "spurious" deals for nefarious means. I attempt to stay away from politics on here - sometimes I just can't help myself - however commenting on what appears to be a rather strange order and stating it as such - is, in my mind, simply questioning a large aerospace deal on an aerospace related forum- I'm happy for someone to put me right and explain that ordering 160 planes when your entire fleet numbers 230 is perfectly normal.... I'll wait to be put right so I can cast my scepticism aside.

160 Boeing planes for a country with a population of 2.6m...... Call me a sceptic but it does smell a bit of a steroid induced "cash for access" type of deal. Quatar airways currently has 230 planes with a further 15 on order..... Seems like they're replacing virtually the whole fleet :-)

I'm going for 4) 10-15%. But I think the price could rise 20% (if we get 100% of the award) - however an extra 5% rise will be creep from the leaks preceeding the announcement...

Thanks Svend - I was waiting to be shot down in flames so for you to verify / rattify my thoughts is a result :-). I get the feeling news will leak in the days prior to the announcement so the actual "bump" on the day may not be quite so dramatic. Here's hoping the RR tender boys have ticked all the boxes and win the lot.... The "leak" I heard the other day about narrow body has now largely been supported by various statements / announcements - although I think we're still waiting to hear details on whether it will be a JV, who the partner will be and what dates RR is expecting to launch its first engine - someone in RR I was talking to the other day seemed to think the whole narrow body thing was a waste of time as pretty much everyone had now chosen their airframe / engine and there would be but scraps to fight over - However I'm asuming the narrow body will be ultrafan and will be targetting the next generation of narrow body - mid 20230's. Another person I spoke to suggested electric planes will be taking much of the narrow body market in the years to come.... Food for thought.

What's the bump going to be on the back of SMR?? Assuming we're at £8 the day before the announcement I see it as the following....

100% RR - Jump in SP to 9.60 (20%)

75% RR - Jump in SP to 9.20 (15%)

50% RR - Jump in SP to 8.80 (10%)

Is this realistic? It's not so much what the deal is worth in monetary terms (a quick google search suggests RR are bidding approx 1.8bn per SMR - 8 SMR's = £14.4bn in total) - it's also (IMHO) what the deal does with regards to giving RR a slap on the back and proclaiming they have the best technology.

The threat RR was worried about when I worked there (15 odd years ago) was someone muscling in to compete with the aftermarket. This was seen as a real threat - and was explained to us in the yearly whiteboard presentations - Don't know if the regulations have changed preventing this threat or maybe RR has tightened up its contracts making it a massive gamble for airlines to even consider using other companies for aftermarket?? It never seems to be mentioned anymore.

Retec - I put my hands up - There is some speculation within the facts - the only thing we (in the public domain) don't really know is the price - I just can't see RR getting that wrong - It's not their first rodeo with regards to 1)bidding on large orders and 2) bidding for SMR work. Let's "hope" the SMR deal isn't baked in... :-)

Toffers - I just can't see how Starmer can influence the outcome without it leaking out - and if it did leak there would be an enormous (and well justified) legal challenge from RR - Just can't see this happening personally - I'm pretty sure Starmer would have been prepared for trump's greedy "we want all the SMR work" and would have been briefed on exactly how to turn him down. If you actually analyse the trade deal between the US and the UK - 1)it's not actually that big and 2) both countries were desperate to announce something (trump had promised 90 deals in 90 days..... 30 odd days in he does his first deal with the UK which to all intents and purposes was a bit s5!t) - I seriously don't think trump has the negotiating power to dictate terms - he's in desperate need of "deals" and would't be holding out for the SMR - despite his greed.

I love your optimism Svend - My guess would be the 818 you allude to will be breached with the SMR news - and.... assuming the news is as good as we all hope we'll be kissing goodbye to the high sevens and low eights and welcoming the mid nines or even tens.....

So a couple of deals have gone to GE / Hitachi and now everyone's convinced Starmer has done a deal with the devil (the orange one) to help secure a broader trade agreement. I don't buy into this. Starmer is from a legal background and will be well aware of two things - 1) influencing the outcome of the bid process is fraught with legal issues and 2) everything leaks.

If we look at the facts.

1) RR was way ahead in the design approval process - although it seems they're now being caught up

2) RR has considerable experience of working within thhe nuclear sector

3) You'd hope the RR price is in the ballpark of the other bids (they're not stupid and will know what price is competitive)

4) RR is BRITISH (probably won't register on the score sheet but worth considering)

5) Tallied with 4 - RR winning will create huge jobs growth / revenue from taxes for the Govt (again possibly won't register on the score sheet)

6) RR has a background of reliability and quality

In my mind there's absolutely no way RR miss out completely - the only thing we're really waiting to see is how much (if atall) the Government has hedged it's bets by giving some of the work to AN Other company.

If it's a 50-50 split does the SP go down as RR getting 75% - 100% of the contract is baked into the SP? How much has the market baked into the SP? I'm guessing 75% and above and the SP will fly, 50 - 75% and the SP will bump up but not go mental and anything below 50% will see an adverse reaction to the SP.

Thoughts anyone?

In a company like RR Directors don't sell shares because they've got wind of some bad news. They sell shares to buy a house / re-invest in something else / pay a tax bill etc, etc. Directors earning £1m+, + Share options aren't going to risk their credibility by selling at "opportune" moments.

I'm guessing if I'd bothered to look at the mcad on IAG I could have e waited and bought in a bit lower but I just assumed the 1.2% morning drop was the usual rubbish start to the day RR seems prone to and a recovery was around the corner... is there any indication as to what's prompted the drop???

I had some IAG which I'd bought just before the drop..... Decided to sell on Friday at a 10% loss and bought RR this morning (before the drop got underway)..... Timing the market is a skill which is beyond me :-)

Is there something that has triggered these large institutional buys?? Is it the ratification of the divi at the AGM?.

Sparky, I hear what you're saying but have a few points.

Design - Other companies were always going to catch RR up at some point. The Govt's inability to make a decision - coupled with a rather poorly timed election has exacerbated this catch up

Make - Let's not forget RR has been making nuclear reactors for about 60 years - smaller scale admittedly but I think they can claim to have an edge on knowledge regarding the intricacies of dealing with Nuclear power?

Funding - I'm afraid I know nothing about this - however surely the bid was about the technology as opposed to a whole funding strategy regarding site ownership etc??

As for the Czechs having a re-think - they were impressed enough with RR to aquire a stake in RR SMR - Not sure they'll walk away if the UK Government do the unthinkable and don't award RR the majority stake.

I genuinely think we're overthinking this - The Govt has taken it's time - however the project was a Tory project which was passed onto them when they won the election - it makes sense that they make sure the ducks are in line before ploughing ahead - At least we are now just a few weeks away from finding out who the winner (s) will be. The Canadian decision was undoubtedly heavily politically influenced - We cant win them all - however I would like to think we have a damned good chance of winning a large chunk of the European work which is up for grabs. Pedigree, quality, reliability - all things RR is renowned for - and all things you want when you're building nuclear kit....