Member Info for PC01

What's extraorinary is how no one is looking at this Enquest deal and read-thru to co's like JOG....This is the most obvious 'turn the lights on' moment I can think of int eh life of this company! Finncap, the broker say today 'This transaction follows the takeover of Premier oil by Chrysaor and HiTech is in exclusives to buy Exxons Uk North Sea assets. It is unlikely to be the last. They go on to talk about the North sea and finish with 'this disconnect is most evident for companies with material underdeveloped resources like JOG which offers material oil development projects at cents on the $'...you see, its not just me n Dick....

Its abundantly clear I know nothing - otherwise the SP would be much higher! Re eh listing of buys n sells, I wouldn't go too much on whether they are actual buys or sells...I have frequently bought and its shown as a sell and vice versa. If they are all sales, then someone likes the story and is adding here. I tend not to worry about the minutiae tbh. If I am right on this, then we will be a lot higher - meaningfully higher - multiples of here higher in the coming months and years. If I am wrong, then I'm going to lose a shedful. As frequently said, you pays your money....

It might be worthwhile for some to look at Enqest's announcement today - they have just bought 18mm barrels of oil just up the road from Buchan for $329mm.
How much reserves do we have? Oh about 180mm....
JOG shares unch'ed...weird times.

...or in JOGs case another $170mm. Yep OIL at $59 today. I do hope Mr Benitz et al are saying - oh, sorry, just cost another $100mm....what did Freddiie Mercury once sing 'don't stop me now, I'm having such a good time''...cummon monsieur market, wake up!

Its all for ****s n giggles isnt it...we stand bravely behind our keyboards fighting our cause...the last point I would make is the one that seems to escape notice...I invested originally in JOG because of Verbier....wow, they held c 20% of an interest that might have held 25mm - 125mm barrels of oil. No one talks about Verbier now, or any of the other exploration 'possibilities'...as the board have managed after much work to get themselves a 100% interest in an oilfield with ratehr more oil in it...what might be the cream on top is if we start bumping into more oil as the company thinks we have 100-150m of prospects....
Anyway happy hunting. We all know that valuing JOG at 0.2$/barrel makes little sense to us believers...but for the unbelievers its a real case of 'show us'...their problem is that they might need to be paying north of £10 to buya few shares if the board do bring out that long eared white chap out of a chapeau.

i think $1.5bn is the expected Capex of the project to get Buchan oil out of the ground. Pretty sure i have read that number either within Jog or on an analyst piece.
Which is peanuts really if you do more maths.
170mm x $30 = $5.1bn of ‘profitable cash flow’.
$30 being the per barrel profit as discussed below.
We could get all fancy and divide that by 22million (number of shares outstanding) and get a SP ‘value’ of £232 assuming Jog could raise the capex number at zero cost and with no dilution...90% of the equity given away still gives a SP of £24. Then we need to add time value of money etc and we get into accountancy maths which isn’t my strong point (tho i can add n divide ok)...but you get my gist!
Now to reiterate for the umpteenth time...what if Oil goes to $100/ barrel?

Back to mathematics parts 1 AHJH...i'm surprised you have any numbers after your name given your economic illiteracy.
If you read what I wrote :
Cost of oil extraction somewhere between $25 and $30/barrel. For ****s n giggles lets call if $29...nice round number. Oil price today is $58.
Do I need to go on? If I have lost you...what is 2x29?...amazingly 58...if you double your money you've made - again amazingly - 100%.
There are plenty of villages out there that have lost their idiot, I'm sure you will find a nice home somewhere.

Young Gun - simples. If no farm out then JOG will die a sad death. With the POO touching $58 and I believe a sporting chance that cost of getting oil out the ground likely to < $30/barrel then we are now on the sharp end of $30/barrel profit. Or in more simple easy to understand language 100% gross profit. I've been banging on about the POO for sometime now...this is by no means the high that we will see this year, we are on the verge of a major supply shortage in OIL. I would not be surprised to see $80 this year and north of $100 next.
As I have also said a few times on here, the operational gearing of just $1 upward tick in the POO for JOG is c $180mm. the maths here is startlingly simple. So back to your comment Young Guns. No farm out, no fun. Simple. The project will costs c $1.5bn minimum - there is no dilution in the world possible for JOG to raise that sum. Not when its valued at 0.02$/barrel.
Thus why i own as many as I possibly can and why I remain so completely exasperated by the refusal of Mr Market to get my point! But one day he might.... and why my wife will likely be quite cross if I am wrong and the doubters right. But I guess that's my problem!

As u say Hayashi, a lot depending on delivery this year. Its a big thing for an R&D business to go to a Manufacturing one. Will change the whole DNA of the firm. How to value the future vs how to value real cashflows. So kinda agree with your comments, you can put your hat on £5mm post tax profit and recurring revenue streams etc....
And in the meantime we slowly drift higher.

not so sure Scraggs - 500k at the close today? Equally i’m. not sure it matters if we take the long view ...the SP will look after itself if the company delivers what we think it might?
Think buying anywhere from here down to 7 / 8p will be rewarded handsomely later this year. And for those with some patience i can’t really see why we won’t be on a multi year re-rate as the I - o - T seems to be in its infancy and we seem to be quite a decent player!

i have 2 thoughts re options - the company is running low on cash ...options which are dilutive - yes - to the shareholder do however bring in cash on exercise...
secondly JOG isn’t just 4 men in a room having a laugh on Zoom. It’s a serious business which is likely to be the 2nd largest oil platform in the CNS. It has a lot of staff - it will shortly open a data room full of numbers that you and i simply do not understand...how on earth do you hire the best in class to produce the result that you the shareholders want without some carrots??? For god sake stop thinking about you are your - likely insignificant- stake in JOG and wake up to the big picture!! The 2nd largest oil producing platform in the CNS. and you begrudge a few options to the hard working staff who - might - make it possible?
Shame on you.

With many apologies BusyB...this board has been going for a few years now...and from time to time we are subject to interest from investors I tend to call 'fly-by-nights'...who come in, buy a few shares then try and ramp the SP up...leaving as is always the case, a trail of debris behind when they move on because the expected Tesla takeover doesnt emerge TOMORROW or the court win or whatever it is that gets them all excited.
There are a few of us, and I am sure you are one, who see this as a company with pretty solid fundamentals, an improving balance sheet, a decent market in which to operate and tend to get rather bored with said fly-by-nights. Thus why I am pretty clear about my dealings...and will happily sell those Shares I have bought today at 8.2p, yesterday at 9p and last week at 10p back at 14p whilst keeping my main holding for the rainy day when hopefully we arrive at my 25p target.
Apologies for being rude, not my intention.

What we need to is go onto Reddit - tell them we're being horribly shorted and ask for the band of keyboard warriors to come bail us out...simples!

Didnt think I'd see stock at 8.2p....must admit to being surprised that we've retraced quite so far...still will be good to have some to offer the clowns when they come back at 14p saying this is going to the moon...:-).

...just bought 300k at 9p.

oh ok - well its not much of a rise tbh...there remains the question of achieving a farm out...some of us think its inconceivable they wont achieve one given quality of oil, asset, location, ease of abstraction and potential profitability...the market cap of just £32mm is telling us the market is patently ascribing an almost zero % chance of success. I guess we will find out soon enough. I have bought quite a few more shares today.

Haha - not enough 0000 on my keyboard....what makes me laugh...is when the SP hit £4.50 on the hope that Verbier might have 125mm barrels of oil...of which we - at the time - had what 25% working interest .. there's a 170mm barrels now of which we have 100% and the SP languishes at £1.50....maybe the £4.50 print was optimistic...but today's 25% bounce doesn't really start to capture the magnitude of the news...worth remembering as well that it would not be unfair to suggest cost of getting oil out the ground might be lower than $30/ barrel 'cos we have a load more of it....so good news all round - £42/share still has a nice ring to it!.

For the believers, a good day...for the non-believers, its still cheap...for the doubters, this is good news. For the downright dishonourable who feed on fear, I hope you cannot find the offer to cover your shorts for love nor money.

Hi CJ i have bought a few - left an order for 250k at 9.4p but no stock down there. This is a nice little tree shake. If it dislodges a few rotten apples then great! I see nothing - despite OS worries - to change how the company is performing...so for complete honesty bought back 300k at 10p in various shapes - have left an order for 250k at 9.4 and then a long term much larger one at 8p. Will be v surprised if i get those.
To reiterate there are 2 indicators that have proven reliable of late - when the clowns arrive it’s usually time to move off and when James H starts to whinge then we’ve probably found the bottom!!

Why thank you Kencarv - tho back patting can be reserved for selling them at 15p...!