Member Info for PC01

A grown up comment at last T - man. SXX was one of the great ideas and much more by luck than good judgement i never bought it but it was the greatest ‘next thing ‘...until it became subsumed in debt.
You talk about people selling CPX shares here and dumping them on unsuspecting investors. Hands on the table i’ve now sold 1.5mm shares from 6p to 13.35p today. 1/3rd roughly of my holding. When i was buying them at 1.9p I can promise you 10p+ seemed an impossible dream given i was 75% down at the time. Meeting with AK a couple of times definitely made me feel that he had ‘skin in the game’ and the fact that the boards remuneration has almost entirely been in stock n options made me feel this was not one of those ponzi-type schemes that undeniably exist on Aim. When you get scarred by a company like SXX it’s easy to think every other opportunity is the same. But I assure you you’ll get much more sympathy and understanding from what - i personally think - is a pretty decent commentary board if you understood or asked yourself why CPX at 13p might remain a decent long term investment rather than trying hard (from 4p onwards) to scare everyone away from the investment.
If you can show me another company in this hotel sector that has no debt, is growing sales aggressively and will make c £7mm Ebitda next year with a mkt cap of just £70mm I’m all ears. Oh with the added kicker of a potential Tesla settlement?

i think he wants those ones he sold me at 4.1p back Ken!!

it’s been a fun board and a fun stock but as per a message i posted a while back, when we start to get infested by fly by nights then it’s probably time to take a step back. There’s probably 10 of us who’ve had a laugh and a cry over the past 3 years but i think time to move on from posting until the village idiots have moved on. Too much noise, too much volatility. Speak in the NY when we’ve settled down.

TD I love your enthusiasm! I have no idea as to the size of your holding but I do know you've been passionate about this company and done a lot of research which I have found very informative. I may not share your investment 'holding forever' view but definitely think we can have a good peak at the sunlit uplands!

how about looking at it like this : since the SP bottomed at 1.8p it quintupled you 9p. It’s now come back - aka profit taking / pullback etc to 7.7p. All good in the tent. If it over pulls back to 6p then i’m sure we’ll all buy more...which means it probably won’t...No new news ...just simple sensible market moves...

I think Ken 1.9p to 9p represents a 300%+ up move! I’m a great fan of OS (every share needs an Eeyore type character to do a little restraining of the over optimistic idiotic fly by nights who come in having been triggered by a volume spike or break of chart technicals and try to ramp the living daylights out of the equity before leaving behind a trail of destruction when - shock horror there is no news next week or a Tesla takeover!!) - but even he does need to understand that the majority of the board have been paid in stock n options - aka have major skin in the game - for many years now as there has not been the FCF to support humongous salaries. Cue 2021 when we shud see a positive FCF then i would expect a rebalancing and less equity issuance - cum - dilution and more salaried based compensation. And it will be truly well deserved.

Dick - the problem I think with Mr Market is he is assigning Zero possibility to JOG doing any sort of deal. Until that changes we will trade with this ridiculous valuation. If(when?) a deal comes there’ll be a happy camper in Skeggy and a few of us might meet and raise a glass. The £42 club has a nice ring to it!

i do like these gloom-sters who come on here all woe and fear and - is it just me - but they always seem v concerned that we LTH aren’t robbed blind? It’s truly v kind of them to worry about us and if we can rally 10% at the same time brings a smile to my face.
Still worried about the £5 buy out. Dick promised me £42 and i think it’s worth £70. It sure as hell ain’t worth £1.25!!

Nor his overweight waistline! Many thanks for very kind posts - this has been a long old journey for all of us ...and when the SP reached 1.9p it was getting to the betty swallocks stage! I have more than enough left that a move to 20p (my long term target) will make a meaningful change to my life. So no hidden meaning JH to my previous post - i think i’ve been pretty honest all the way thru this journey but a little risk management in this most dangerous of times seemed sensible! That said if Tesla can be valued at 1200x (yes no typo!) earnings then little ole CPX might one day be valued at a little more than 5x next years forecast ...

Good to see c7mm shares trade today. it’s been quite a rally from the lows. One that has comfortably surpassed my expectations for 2020 - i think we were talking about 6-7p this year post Murata ...I have sold quite a few shares over the past 2 trading sessions ...about 15% of my holding but then i own (as often said!) way too many and felt often i was the only buyer sometimes! Anyway gives me some Ammo for when the dip comes - as it probably will - when news flow slows and all the fly by nights get bored. But I remain hugely optimistic for 2021 and still think 15-20p once Murata fully operational is easily achievable purely on valuation grounds. Bon chance!

With respect VK I think you should invest elsewhere if you want immediate satisfaction.
The oil had been there for 10,000 years and is going anywhere.
First oil is not expected until 2025.
The board will do what it wants when it wants likely doing what it thinks is best for the company. Do you want a rubbish deal or do you want the company to take its time and deliver the best possible result ?
Can i suggest you Go trade Tesla on a PE of 1200x if you want ‘action’.

Reading all the recent posts - it does seem to this investor there is palpable optimism in the air despite ole eeyore winding a few of you up! And for once that optimism seems well founded. Remember the new facility improved CPX gross margin to 53%. The SP even after our recent Santa Claus rally - really doesn’t reflect what making £7mm or so net profit next year should do it. We r trading at a future 2021 PE of 5-6 when most companies in the new world of I-o-T and funky technology trades is 30-40x. It’s easy to see why 40-50p in 2-3yrs is easily within reach with or without Tesla.
I’m just thankful to that poster (anyone remember his name?) who sold me his stock at 4.1p and suggested he’d buy em back at 3p or lower. Increasingly optimistic and i still owe Eeyore a£10er...

it’s a very interesting investing philosophy- to hold a share for so long...i imagine you must have been down at least 50% at the lows...never thought you’d see your money back ...then things improve and finally you could sell for no loss. Just when the moons align ...it may be a brilliant sale and there is no judgement here at all. But I think most seasoned investors would probably say you’ve done the hard work? Might have been better to have now put a stop at 4p say...below where the SP would imply us optimistic types have been smoking some rather good stuff but give yourself a fair chance of playing some improvement in the company’s prospects...as i said no intention to judge but surprised anyone would be bailing at flat having been able to weather a 50% loss for a few years after THAT update yesterday.

I get laughed at when i say my greatest fear is a £4-£5 takeout. But it’s true - it would be awful for a company with this quality of asset to get taken out on the cheap because investors were so myopic.

That’s the £££ question. We haven’t sued them for damages per se, just got infringements of our IP. Frequently judges can award damages on ability to pay. So Ioxus which had assets of 2 bits of F all were told to pay $5.9mm i think. it is inconceivable to me that a judge would award same damages against a company which is now nearing $1tn in value. Watch this space methinks!
Enjoyed today’s update - hopefully that should put the 2-4p chapter of our lives behind us once and for all. To answer the q where will the SP be if CPX is making AUD$22m in FY22... well on margin of 55% that c £7mm net profit ? For and R n D firm to be making that i think conservative 10x valuation? So £70mm mkt cap or - what - 20p/ share?

As i see crude back at $45 (remember target next year $60-80)...each $1 above $30 is ‘worth’ a minimum of $130mm to to Jog or c 8x it’s current market cap. One day the market will remember...

Hahaha - glad I am seen as the voice of sanity! In fairness, whilst very optimistic about the future for this little company and admitting to owning way too much of it, the future is quite rosy, even tho JamesH would like the news TODAY and Ken thinks the company might be worth $1bn...why stop there amigo? :-)...was talking yesterday to the chap who first pointed me in the direction of CPX (when they had that informal 20p-25p bid, what 3 years ago now?) and he (A large holder) is much more optimistic about Maxwell/Tesla court case than I have been. I may have posted a while back - if not apologies - but the gist of his comment is that Tesla wilfully have been breaching CPX patents. As such, the courts likely to be quite aggressive in settlement, assuming the patent IT holds, which it should. Anyway, enough waffle - I have always said court winnings are jam on top of the improving quality of cake...and if we were to win substantial damages (think entire mkt cap type size?) then I would still expect an extraordinary dividend, given all the executives continue to get paid in CPX stock. How to value a stock that growing with a one-off dividend of, what, 50% of mkt cap? That's a nice conundrum.
Plenty to look forward to, but James H it aint today...or even tomorrow!

There are some great names for posters but Buffets Love Child is right up there! I hope you are as successful and as patient! I tried to give an indication yesterday of value and timing but in case you missed it :
The data room is open now.
JOG needs cash - it currently has c 1/2 its mkt cap in cash and so will have to do some sort out of farm out agreement to be able to deliver its targets. First oil is not expected until late 2024 to give you an idea of the patience you might need, tho most on here speculate that JOG will not be independent by then.
Its assets are well known - as I suspect you already know as I doubt you will have been buying shares just on a wing and a prayer - but the key points are
cost of oil production c $30/barrel.
130mm barrels of oil recoverable from Buchan, Verbier and environs.
Potential for a further 200mm+ barrels in the GBA.
A centralised hub to do the offtake that will ensure JOG is - strangely for an OIl Co - CarbonNeutral to keep Greta and her friends happy.
22mm shares outstanding.
Whatever the price of oil subtract the cost of getting it out the ground, multiply by the number of barrels, divide by current FX rate, divide by the % share JOG keeps after its Farm-out agreement, divide by 22mm will give you a fair assessment of the 'value' inherent.
Risks - lots. No gtee of farm out, run out of money as the board trouser the lot, oil price sinks below $30 again as the world embraces green technologies.
Upside - there is more oil there. The oil price will rise (my own view), potentially sharply, as the destruction to US shale becomes increasingly apparent and global demand bounces back sharply in 2021 driven by a sharp rebound in global growth and inflation as all those people who've been locked down decide its time for a trip.
If you want to put a smile on your face, how about 250mm barrels of oil, a $80 price / barrel and a weak ££ due to Brexit chaos?
All surmising, all risk. BUt the best 'option' I can currently find.

Very kind. It is the ramblings of someone who - absolutely openly - has a very large vested interest in this performing. I got laughed at the other day for talking about my fear of a £5 takeover, with everyone saying madness (with the SP at £1). But i truly believe that a 40-1 bet (which is what this is, with an outside chance of 200-1 should all those prospective reserves turn into something meaningful) is as good a bet as I can find in these markets. But we absolutely do need OIL to continue to perform - I think it does. But with the CPR suggesting cost of getting the stuff out the ground is $30/barrel, you can sense how incredibly geared this company is to an oil price recovery. If we use Woodmac (who i think the markets assumes are one of the better industry specialists out there) they have a $60-$80 target over the next 5 years. Again just doing the sums:
$30/barrel profit x 130mm barrels divided by the % JOG holds on to divided by 22mm (shares outstanding) divided by FX rate of $1.30 = £68 of 'value' / share if JOG hand over 50%. You can play with any of these numbers but they all end up with a huge number way in excess of £1...if JOG can do a farmout and avoid running out of money! Thus the 40-1 odds. As ever best of luck.

No I believe it is open now. I did suggest in my post early this am that the SP was a little on the misguided side....I think Dick was only slightly joking when he said the other day that he might sell some at £43...it an easy number to contemplate and makes as much sense as 80p this morning. £1, whilst 20% better does not move the dial one iota.