Member Info for PC01

I can answer that one - it was simply too small a business for them...as you can see CPX will make c $14mm frmo the Murata manufacturing equipment this year and Murata basically said its way too small for a 7bn market cap company to worry about such a small business line..so having spent c $50mm in building a new machine they decided to sell it...and CPX was the only buyer..but dealing with CPX they ensured continuity of production for their clients...so a good deal for CPX, actually no a great deal, and no loss of face for Murata ...

I think I'm a a lifer here as well! but have averaged down quite a few times! Nice to see a little life in them old dog...i think ost of us would like £5 before we can consider ourselves out the woods!

Morning T-man - I havent been filled...havent seen a 10p offer yet? That said I dont tend to watch this by the minute - but if you do see a 10p offer, then holler...nice to have a retracement. It is all very predictable - fly by nights come on, get all excited, ramp it to the moon, get disappointed when news doesnt come out, sell and leave the LT holders to trade the stock. So 500k bid at 10p and 1mm at 8p. That will replace all i have sold between 10 and 14p. And then probably watch it drift to 5p as the world collapses around me, buried in Covid s***!!
Good luck all and happy friday.

You are spot on Duster. It will only be possible once the deal is done! You poays your money,,,i do know that, should there be a sniff of a deal : 'The directors are pleased to announce they have had several offers to partnership into the development of the Buchan oilfield' or that sort of announcement and you won't see £1, £2, £3 or even £4 for dust....equally, no deal, run out f cash, end up with a firesale and its the poorhouse for me at worst and guaranteed doghouse with she who is sometimes obeyed!!
You pays your money....

Well i dipped another toe and will buy more at £1.30...might as well go down all guns blazing...

or as my sister once said, 'faint heart never f%%%ed a fairy' :-)

Agreed with all that. Where are those 4 legged pointy ears white things that one can pull out of a hat when neede!

I know I bang on...but as the Saudis continue to cut and with cold weather forecast in Europe and US over the coming month, surely somebody at some stage will see that JOG's market cap of £30mm is rather failing to keep pace with the $5bn in 'increased value' to giver it a better word that the bounce in Brent from the lows of April 2020 has garnered.
Simple maths. 130mm barrels. $37/barrel increase in Brent. Whilst JOG has bounced from 50p to the heady heights of £1.37, its not really kept pace with the gearing effect.
When the SP starts to move - which it will, I will scream if I read on here someone asking why the bounce from £1 to £2. I'm not sure I can find a company with as much operational gearing as this chap. One day, as del boy once said, we'll all be millionaires Rodney... we can but live in hope!

You are spot on Pi.

i think what is the key and has oft been discussed on here - mostly by Dick : JOG has an extremely attractive asset in the CNS. The OGA were persuaded by the company to award them the Buchan license because they felt JOG were most likely to be able to develop the field in the ‘greenest’ possible fashion. If they can produce the oil out of the ground in a carbon neutral fashion i think that’ll be a major feather in their chapeau.
Let’s not begin to think Greta et al will turn the world into an anti-oil universe anytime soon. As i have written many times - yes even this old fart got something right - the oil price will continue to rise because A) the saudis want it so but rather more pertinently B) US shale business is fooked. Ah a higher oil price will bring them back on stream i hear you say - almost true but i believe the industry has severe doubts that the Screaming Eagle oil field (#1 I believe) can produce anything like what it used to.
The problem with oil is - as we have seen here at JOG- it takes a bloody long time to get the stuff from discovery into the barrel. Talking to AB a while back he reckoned 5 years was ‘par’.
Where am i going with all this? Namely that JOG has an asset that oil majors and or those dastardly hedge funds that Dick is not a fan of will increasingly think is extremely attractive as the oil price continues on its merry way. EG funding the extraction of said oil at the cost of $1.3bn wil not be a problem - and i’m v comfortable with my view it ain’t being funded by more Jog shares at £1!

what are u talking about? It’ll cost at least $1bn - no news there! But a simple run thru of the maths for the cynics sceptics and those who want to be short should tell you that an investment of that size here is pretty well covered by Brent at this price!
Somewhere between 130 and 350mm barrels. Let’s go for 100mm for simple maths.
Cost of production $30 / barrel but i gather this number might be in process of being slightly lowered.
Current spot $56 and when (if?) normality returns air fuel demand alone will push oil north of $60. Read Goldman’s recent report on the return of the super cycle.
So let’s for ****s n giggles sake use $55 creating a 2.5bn return for our $1bn investment. If there is 200mm barrels then we have a $5bn return.
Who will invest here? With the cost of capital round the world c 0-3% i can think of a huge array of Oil Majors or Private Equity houses for whom these numbers are quite compelling. Weirdly BP might be one such company given their current investment needs.
So be ever so slightly careful by throwing idiotic comments like ‘who’d invest $1bn in a project like this?’ - my numbers above are the most simple of the simple but serve to let people understand the cash flows involved here. It’s a huge project - potentially one of the top 3 in the CNS - and just because JOG has a mkt cap of £25mm currently doesn’t mean they can’t partner up to make it work.

on here. Own plenty and think the research that appears on here is 1) comfortably the best of any board i read and 2) much better than any written by investment banks. Keep it going please ( Yes Trek those complements are mostly pointed in your direction) and fingers crossed!

Haven’t posted for a while but still a decent sized holder...like the price action and like the volume increase. Am sure a few of 70p placing shares coming into the market - not often this Share has given its holders a profit!!
Question - a capital increase was discussed quite a lot last year on here ...why did the company raise the equity at the bottom of the range rather than wait for news that might have come and then raised into a rally? Or was the company beginning to get a little sweaty that - even in the advent of good news the market was so concerned about their finances that good news might have been ignored ? Whereby with money raised good news can now be enjoyed? All a bit chicken n egg but i must admit i was v surprised they raised at 70p. Took my rights gulped closed my eyes and crossed fingers! Seems to have been a good strategy so far!!!

Yes the operational gearing is huge here! I said last year oil to $60-80 this year ...looks on target...if cost of oil for JOG is as they say $30/barrel then - with a minimum of 130mm barrels - at $56 they are potentially making $3.4bn profit. At this stage even if they did a farm out whereby they gave away 90% of the company and just got the ride with no further costs they are worth 10x what they are capitalised at now. If there are a few more barrels lying about then it’s all gravy and we know the research analysts are currently valuing all the prospects at zero% probability...
F*** it i’m gonna have to buy some more on Monday!

I've left an order at 10p for 300k. I'll buy the rest of what I sold at 8p, tho I would be deeply surprised if I got those. Like Ken, v relaxed by the pullback - which gotta be honest is no surprise given the move and the fact that whoever involved themselves in the 2 capital raises now has a chance to take profit.

Nice post Dick - share your frustrations with analysts or 'teenage scribblers' as once described....get off the bleedin' fence and have a view....I keep banging on about oil...we are - as Goldman said today - going into a new Commodity super-cycle...remains my core view that Brent will trade to $80 this year and wouldnt be surprised to see it overshoot...US share production under huge pressures, and offshore Uk a mess...saudis know where they want the oil price...you can't have years of central bank printing presses on full max and not see incipient price price pressures...and JOG has a **** load of assets, even if one analyst thinks there's a high chance there is no oil there...

PR - please do not make investment decisions based on anything I do...its been a long journey on this board and we have all been thru a lot together...I retain a holding that will make a substantial difference to my and my family's life if all goes well here. But I have sold shares, as reported, as 8p, 11p and 13.5p. About 1/3rd of a very oversized position purely because I could not afford to be holding what I did hold, if for some horrible reason, something didn't go to plan. I could not be more positive about the future for this company - PP1 I think your numbers are spot on. Not sure they can make any more given that would be their factory working at 100% capacity!

Sorry to bang on - the Newlands bought shares when they thought they were cheap and have sold some having made at least 50% return. Good for them. We - or at least some of us - have done similar. It may not mean anything except that having bought a stack of shares at 3p and 8p it was time to take a profit. It happens. The newsflow remains very supportative and new buyers will appear if / when they think value is there. As I was whinging before xmas, this board had become full of flybynights who we hadnt seen before and who will soon be calling for AKs head when we dont get any news for a few months!

Frac - 40p in 2009 to 4p in 2020 = a 90% decline...since when we've bounced a wee bit....or we could look at 1.9p (yes, I know I bang on about the shares I managed to get there) to 14p...all these things are just numbers...what matters is simply this :
CPX has a mkt cap of £60mm. This year it will make - I would argue - as much as £7-10mm. Then you can apply whatever growth multiple you like...Tesla seems to be valued at 1200x....most dull UK Utilities trade on a Pe of 15x...I think a multiple of less than 10x would appear to value CPX shares quite sensibly given the markets in which it operates...and the world of I-o-T which seems to be v much in vogue. So sure, we might get a pull back from a very sharp re-rate, but I for one would use any PB to c 10p as a good opportunity to buy more - again! Nice share this - good story, good trading range, good momentum...don't get too hung up on the day to day moves methinks!

I have always thought that a meaningful judgement (think $25mm or more) would enable the directors who own plenty of shares to announce a ‘special dividend’ of - say - $15mm or c £12mm. With a mkt cap of £70mm that would give a dividend yield of 15%+. That would enrich everyone. And the great thing is the dividend would be paid not out of cash reserves but from a one-off situation so would be hugely SP enhancing! So without getting ahead of ourselves that would be a ‘happy ending indeed’...

2020 was undeniably the year when the stars started to align for CPX and its long-suffering shareholders...this time a year ago the SP. was struggling at 4p and catalysts to be fair seemed a distance off. Amazing what a year can do / in the midst of a global pandemic this little company has dusted itself off, did a wonderful transformational deal and now finds itself about to make money for the first time in its life! What is great is the relatively high volume that has accompanied this rally since late October....I remain deeply optimistic for the future here and wish you all a very prosperous and healthy NY!