Member Info for PC01

If we are to believe that JOG has 130mm barrels of recoverable oil in its portfolio (patently the market doesn't otherwise we wouldnt be trading at 80p) then JOG's assets are worth $1.1bn more than they were on the 1st November given OIL's recovery from $36 to $45. Good to see the market cap has improved from £17.5m to £19m over the same time. I still think OIL trades north of $80 next year driven by a surge in demand for flights and the inability of US shale to produce anything like the numbers they were before the crisis. Then the true value for long term holders of this little minnow will be revealed.

It may well be Stockholm syndrome rather than enthusiasm, but yes, I do believe the future is half decent and 30+ yrs of working in the city does give me a - albeit miniscule - insight into how companies that are growing exponentially can fund future operations. I use the word exponentially wisely, given the sales lift off that we can - reasonably - expect given the last RNS and supported by the analyst's research report. And as per all my previous missives both on here and to the ever-optimistic Kencarv who emails me from time to time, the lawsuits if won are just gravy that would provide a handsome dividend to the shareholders...unless of course it was used to fund plant #2....:-)

OK PC01 a few questions - and a few answers.
a) what would be the cost of a new production line (have read £30-£40m) - Yes, which makes the purchase of Murata's for c £2mm such a good deal, something you have been relatively unenthusiastic about?
b) what is the current value of the company - well we can do that - £19mm.
c) how much would any full placing/loan devalue the SP in percentage terms - ah, you are jumping the gun here somewhat. If, in a years time the company is operating at full capacity and is making what is says it can, eg c £6mm on a net profit basis, then i would suggest the market would have re-rated CPX - considerably! I would argue going from an R&D firm to a producer with said R&D with cashflow to support all operations would likely see the company valued - what - 20p? so £100mm by then?
d) What would be the payback time in terms of profit be in years - well that's a good question which should be asked of an accountant. However, if the gross margin is at least 52% and they are the #1 player, then you would argue they would only build the #2 facility via debt (as per my first msg) with interest payments covered by FCF as per any normal company. Maybe a 5yr drawdown facility? Am sure Aussie banks would love to support a global winner. So, with debt costing 5% +/- then I think the profit remains a pretty handsome one.
e) knowing a-d would you support any placing in theory as well as cash - why not? The company is telling me its all systems go - but as per my first missive, debt would be my strongest suggestion to fund future growth. Once you have a model that proves itself and throws off the free cash to support interest payments, why do you need to dilute shareholders?
IMHO as things stand I would consider the company would be overstretching itself a tad - again, I don't know why u think that? The whole argument is based on :
Demand growing exponentially
Margin being held north of 50%
Best in class.
Strong IP.
In the event of the above, then the only stretching to be done is by AK, when he wakes up in the morning and sees how wealthy he has become!

Even by your standards Open that is a silly comment. Simple economics lesson :
If you are a company who is making $10/year selling widgets at a margin of 53% and orders double do you :
Not fill those orders and let competition in?
Build a new facility by going to shareholders and saying we've got this great widget that everyone seems to want and our orders are doubling and we are making 52% on making to selling
Build a new facility by going to a bank and saying the above? Why does Capex have to come out fo shareholders pockets once you have +ve FCF, which this particular company of ours will have next year? Money is free at the moment. I reckon CPX could borrow next year at c 4-5% if (and agreed thats a big if) it fulfils all what it thinks it can.
Growth is good. growth in demand, leads to growth in production, leads to a growing company. And you want the prize taken from you at - what - 6-7p? Having held through all the dark times of the past 3-4 years?? Madness.

Just responding to your comment Abatt1. And this is no criticism at all. Investing is all about nerve. I'm not very good at it tbh, tending to turn my screens off when the mkt falls, stop looking at portfolio valuations and place head firmly under pillow. When the market rallies back, frequently I then sell a stock for a small profit despite the fact that i was many ££ down. What investing skill is that? Be prepared to ride out the losses but take a small profit when it recovers.
So I vowed with JOG that I would not scare myself out. If its a zero, its a zero. But if (and I earnestly hope like all of us do) it goes onto great things, then this is a stock I'm going to sit with til it reaches my minimum target (£8), where I will sell a small amount of my holding to be in 'for free'. I still think this is a 5yr option (first oil being in 2025). I still think JOG will not be producing the oil for itself. And I think one day the market will value 130mm barrels of recoverable oil at more than 10p/barrel. So, as usual, good luck all and here's to the sunlit uplands!

Again says nothing that we don't know already - but just to sense check my number :
At full capacity, the four lines will be able to produce c. 4.8m DMF or DMT units and more than 2.4m DMH units per annum all at a much lower cost per unit than CAP-XX’s current manufacturing facility in Malaysia given a much higher levels of automation. Using an indicative selling price of A$3.40 per unit, this capacity equates to more than A$24m of
potential revenue on the basis of three shift operation. With a target gross margin of 60%, this suggests a potential gross profit of A$14.5m per annum. To put this into context, Murata’s supercapacitor sales were c. 4m units per annum (c. A$13m revenue) prior to acquisition.
I'm not an engineer, so wouldn't mind someone explaining what 3-shift operation is (is that simply 3 hour shifts, so full capacity usage?)...but otherwise the analyst and I pretty much agree on the numbers! So, if anyone can tell me there's another state of the art I-o-T company trading on a forward PE of - what - 4x with potential for one off IP gains of c $6mm and lord only knows what if we win the Maxwell case then I'm all ears.

The easy answer more sellers than buyers. I have the presentation from AK that he is making to investors today. It reads well and has no info that isnt in the company results. I'll say one thing - its worth remembering that today's announcement was audited results to June 30th. There has been much progress since then. If there was another delay to the Murata project 'Project Blossom'as the company calls it, it would have been released today. The fact that they have orders in excess of what they can produce for the coming 12 months tells me 2 things - we can now ink in FCF +ve numbers (previously pencilled in) for FY22 but...I'm afraid to say...they will probably have to build more production capacity to cope with demand. this is a good thing but in the event of no substantial win from Ioxus or Maxwell, might dig into that FCF number. Remember, we r thinking $14mm on a margin of 54%, so slightly over £5mm net profit for a company valued at £19mm. Works for me. I did buy some at the open and have left an order for a chunk more at 4.2p in the event there are unbelievers out there. GLA.

...reading the entire statement. undeniably the most upbeat of any TU I have witnessed in my 4 years of owning this stock. Continue to reiterate how important their IP is and protecting it (OS please note). In my own small thought, I think they would only be going after Ioxus for the monies owed if they believed there was a good chance of success, given cost of doing so. Likewise, look forward with confidence to meeting with Maxwell.
CPX currently has a market cap of £19mm. It has - as one of our readers excitedly suggests - roughly 20% of that in cash. The order book is great, shipping is to start and margins will aggressively increase because of the Murata purchase. I will be buying more today.
One thing tho - what on earth was I doing buying shares at 8p when the story was - in hindsight - only 1/2 as good as it is now? idiot boy.

sigh - back in my box I go...

Shy 3mm shares traded in our little supercapacitor co...quite a few sales absorbed and whilst the bid has drifted down, the offer hasnt...quite a good sign I think. I'm liking this story quite a lot now...with some decent news flow to come I think.

It was an interesting day - myself and a couple of others bought close to a 100k shares (i was the little mouse!) but certainly a new buyer waded in! The last couple of trades at 94p i’m hoping were the ‘billy big balls’ who were happily shorting into a vacuum and realised that they may have miscalculated...who knows! The charts don’t offer much hope apart from being aggressively oversold which may provide temporary solace.
No, what’s needed is a proper move in oil north of $50 and a market wide mean reversion trade out of very expensive Tech and into very cheap energy. Until that happens companies like JOG will continue to trade at a fraction and i mean a fraction of their true worth. But as per my previous posts i have oodles of patience...

The truth of the matter is the SP might well fall to 65p. It might fall to 40p, as one chap on ADVFN suggests and is shorting the stock in expectation of it getting there. At 40p its worth its cash in the bank. We've all done the maths, the point is 40p, 65p or £1 are all completely irrelevant if JOG can do what it is attempting to do. The simple maths we've all done (130million barrels of oil with a cost of extraction of $30) means that - IF JOG CAN DO A DEAL AND IF THE PX OF OIL STAYS AT $40 OR ABOVE - then a valuation of £10m at 40p or £19mm at yesterday's closing price are completely irrelevant. Even if JOG gives away 90% of its known assets and keeps just 13mm barrels for itself and can only make $10/barrel then its 'worth' £100mm or 5x yesterday's closing px.
In the event that oil trades north of $50 (my view remains of something much closer to $80 over the next 2-3 years if you look at the long term 50-100yr comparisons of the cheapness of oil vs gold and how US shale production continues to collapse) and JOG only parts with 50% of its minimum assets then $50/barrel profit on 65mm barrels makes JOG worth a tad more.
And if the other 200mm barrels in its exploration do actually exist and can actually be taken out of the ground at $30/barrel cost?
So...you pays your money. The chap shorting JOG shares is hoping to make 50% as it drifts to 40p. Good for him and if it does well done him. My view remains that I am looking for a minimum of 5x the current SP and POTENTIALLY 100x if all the stars align. I have time and patience!

i bought a few this morning as did one other rather disheartened investor I know...they are financed for all of 2021 and my core view remains Oil well north of $50 by end of Q1 next year. Hard times at the mom but the oil has been there for a while and ain’t going anywhere. Sentiment will turn one day.

In fairness so ti should...the whole point about CPX's strategy is to stop living on governmental and investor handouts and start growing up into a company that actually makes profits that enable it to grow organically. Nothing worse than having to rely on R&D tax credits and endless dilutive share issues. This is why I dont understand why the market is seemingly not understanding why having bought the Murata factory and de facto its client base, its such a company changing trade. And to think they bought c $50mm of factory for change out of $1mm. Ho hum. I guess the challenge is to prove it with numbers.

Well, we could be considered 'long-suffering' :-)...which we are...I enjoyed someone's post the other day that CPX was probably 1-3years early in its tech....makes sense to me. Anyway fingers crossed, I own plenty now to thoroughly enjoy a ride back to 20p.

220k at 4.3p. I was trying to do some back of the envelope maths...given 'trading is strong' and 'the Murata production line is fully installed', I think its not inconceivable that CPX does $15mm in revenues next year on a 60% margin...so $9mm / £7mm in net profit. Market Cap £19mm. This makes this company whether it gets it Ioxus money or Maxwell money look very cheap. Adds to my thought that if the IP lawsuits actually provide cash then this is the gravy that might well be given to shareholders in the form of an extraordinary dividend.
I continue to think this is possibly the cheapest share in my universe.

it felt like someone has been absorbing a lot of smaller sales and now we have a 260k trade 96-98p. Good to see! Quite like some news to support my lightening of mood!

If u r happy to post your email, I'll lob it over. Tried to copy n paste and failed miserably!

Sadly can't help - it was sent to me by a fellow investor who got it directly from Arden.

I think it must be the last of L&Gs stock....