Member Info for PC01

AFternoon all - I am led to believe after a meeting with a good and knowledgable friend in the industry that the removal of the capex allowance alongside the raising of the tax rate to 79% means for some - probably not all - that the effective tax rate might well be as high as 120%. This might may well be the reason why - to read your post Dick - the market values JOG assets as indeed worthless. tragic really. A few things that amuse / interest me -

Harbour energy seem to make in excess of $1bn at the top line and managed to scrape £35mm bottom line profit...discuss why they should think its worth their while continuing these oeprations?

The UK oil industry has paid £600bn in taxes to the exchequer over the years - thats a few nurses and unemployment benefits...its a brave man who has decided we dont need that income anymore.

My oil charts go back 21 years...during which Oil has been as low at $20 and high as $147...i think it doesnt take a v bright chap to work out that its lagged inflation quite considerably.

Still, at least we are energy secure so that when Russia bu55ers up the oil n gas mkts again (anyone see Russia blaming the UK for the massacre last week?)...oh wait...

I hold these shares in great despair at our political idiots...oh one last point. I gather Sunak, to great applause, got off the stage this week saying we will never import another drop of oil or gas rom Russia...as he signed a lovely deal with a French LNG firm...who guess what...

Well - as per below - without one the company runs out of money in about 3 weeks...

As someone who is 95% down on Renalytix I can honestly say that it’s all my own fault. This company accompanied by great fan fare promised the moon and hit £10+ …but look at those results. No money of more being made to make a dent into the huge administrative costs of running the business. So why ban short selling? Seems absolutely the right thing for those with 1/2 a brain to do. It’s the mugs like me who believed the arrant nonsense uttered who should be banned from investing.

Shame really. It’s a great idea. But one for the employees not the poor shareholders who will lose 100% of their investment.

Ps. Why didn’t the company instruct their brokers to issues 100mm shares at 50c when it hit $2.50 the other day??? Would have given them 6 months breathing space!

Has just announced it’s raising the ‘windfall tax levy’ from 75 to 78%. No idea if there is a minimum level for the oil px to be for levy to be introduced. With Gas at multi year lows I’m not sure what profits there will be if oil falls in a similar fashion. Think I’ve also read they r closing ‘the loophole’ re investment- which I think might be v v bad news for tge industry.

Why bother to invest if you’re going to get taxed at 75 or 78%? Wonder why I bother to invest in anything sometimes?!

Indeed - £3m/yr running costs (which hopefully will do something to mitigate the naysayers that the company is being leeched dry by the executive committee)...£10m cash at '23 YE...a furtehr £21mm to be receieved so cash is 50% of mkt cap. DTAs of - I think but need to check - of a further $25-50m...eg, JOG's oil is valued at pretty much zero.

Maybe that's right - maybe that is the the right way to value the prospects of an oil company in the UK today given the economic illiteracy of our political masters? But I'm not sure I would want to be short the stock in the event that there is any positive newsflow. I can't help thinking we are a sitting duck here tbh. Shareholders bored with waiting - most given short sightedness would take £3.5-£4 today than wait to earn 20% of the 35k Barels of oil/day that Buchan is expected to produce...that with oil at $80 would make JOG between $280k and $350k/day.

I come in peace! Been a v long time since I last posted in here, as sold all my shares (luckily at 30-35p) - or thought I had. Came across a bundle in a chid's ISA yday...have not been follwoing the story but is there any prospect of the equity being relisted / readmitted? Funds patently not arriving form the US (I read about that saga and international banking checks do not take 3months) and the worrying 'other financing options being evaluated' comment which on AIM usually means you're up the creek sans any paddling equipment. Any non-aggressive thoughts?

I think I’ve said this a 100x so far - the share price in any given day is driven by supply and demand of day / week / monthly and even LTHs! It has never represented the innate value of X amount of barrels of oil with zero capex and a margin (I believe) of something like $65/barrel in year one! Assuming $75 brent.

Value in our rather sad eyes (I want £5 now) will only happen as oft discussed if JOG has cash flow. So I do expect a purchase of producing oil wells in the new year with the cash in the bank that will enable a value to be attributed of present not future maybe cash flows!

Hold strong - ps fwiw I think AB has had an unbelievable year - he’s done everything he said he would. It’s not his fault Jog is valued at a huge discount to our perceived fair value.

There is plenty of independent research - 4 brokers and Simon Thompson only 2 of whom are on the payroll. All of whom think stock is worth 3-4x where it trades today. We have many PIs who think its cheap and - like this idiot (me!) - think its cheap. What we dont have is large institutional ownership and until we do, then this is the plaything of liquidity. Cash in bank 65p/share , capex carried free and 20% oil the profits from end of 2026...and therein lies the rub. Nothing to hang your hat on until 2026. Most Pis have the attention span of my labrador, what do u mean its not got to £6 today?

Just tuck it away at the back of your pension fund. And look at it again in Dec 2024 when we should have all the good news and we'll be trading at £2.50 (sigh) and then again in December 2025 whenw e will have had a year of the new labour government who won't have changed anything and then December 2026 when we will be making something like £300k/day and we should have reached the heady heights of....

GLA been fun watching. FWIW I still own as many as I have done.

James - there is as u say nothing wrong with asking for a shareholder meeting - its called the AGM and IF you are on the shareholder registrar then you will get an invite. Assuming you do actually owna few shares (but not > 3% you understand despite buying 10s of thousands daily / weekly / monthly) I'd love to know what you might say :

I mean, he has done every single thing he has promised, in the time scale he set out, has money in the bank and more coming that will represent 60% of the current market capitalisation and when added to DTAs will mean his 20% (carried free) share of the oil is valued at pretty much zero. Most doubted he could hold on to 20% of Buchan, so he's shown himself a pretty decent poker player and he's joined up with 2 companies who completely get the CNS and oil extraction, whilst surrounding himself with folk who know more than any of us idiots on here on ho to make money from OIL. So what exactly will you say to him? I'm all ears.

James you know what everyone thinks about you. You spend 90% years f the time telling how many shares you own / are buying / will buy / how great the company is and 10% of the time wanting the executives hauled in ver the coals.

Most people have blanked you but I for one enjoy the comedy. Keep going old chap. Soon you’ll own all the company and we poor sad investors can stop worrying.

Nurse…..!

Some of us think OIL is more likely $150 than $50. We have had a huge surge in inflation over the past few years, driven by idiotic central banks who all thought 0% was a sensible rate of interest (or in the case of Japan and Europe -0.5%!) and subsequently thought inflation was 'transitory'. Since 2014 , US inflation has averaged 2.7%. Since 2014 the price of OIL is unchanged. To keep in touch with inflation it should be de minimis 30% higher, especially when global demand has never been more robust.

A long time ago, I suggested JOG was one of the most highly geared plays to the px of oil. Now that the dream is within reach, it really is. Every $1 will make a substantial difference directly to its bottom line. Just a shame Greta and co want to ban its very use!!

Oh lord. Another what if merchant. For the love of all that is holy where do these idiots come from? Another pandemic is coming ‘they’ tell us? Is ‘they’ those strange noises you hear in your head that tell you to post such nonsense on a Sunday afternoon?

Think I need one of Dicks nurses. Or more red wine.

For once James (Tee Hee) you write something sensible! I put very roughly and with no little assumptions what might be a fair value for JOG. Back in the day, we got very excited by JOG having potentially skin in the game in Verbier...and the SP reached £3+ on hope they had - if memory serves me right - 18% of Verbier which might have held some oil in it. We've come along way since then, and seem to be valued at 2/3 of those lofty days, despite powning 20% of Buchan for free. Weird game.

The company is defo cheap and given the half witted nature of 90% of the shareholders who view a 50p profit as casue for celebration, there must be a v real chance of some predator saying how about £4? Sadly I think the bid would get accepted and we'd lose our crown jewels and there will be some on here who'll say...I'd love £4...but the optimistic amongst us think it shud be worth closer to £10 at least and see the prize stolen from under our eyes.

Well this is all veyr exciting. RNS's dropping like leaves off the trees in my garden. Good ones too. Re-reading it today, I just wanted to focus on one thing - if we assume (dangerous I know in this world of ever changing politics and tax) but if we assume JOG gets all the approvements and its go-ahead to first oil in late 2026. Having been in receipt of $38m (so c 35% of today's market cap) and carried fully so nothing to spend its money on...then on day one when the oil starts running it gets :

20% of 35000 barrels/day. assuming cost of getting out the ground vs projected oil px, I think we can asume (again - more assumptions!) that JOG will be getting something like $350k/day. Therefore, in c 285 days after production starts, assuming the $50/barrel profit, it will receive in $$ its current market cap.

Its assumed (agan more assumptions) that Buchan has $70m barrels of - mostly- oil and Dick has long talked abotu said OIL being of very high quality...but 70mm barrels of oil pumping 35k/day gives a lifetime for the project of c 2000 days, with the potential for further discoveries (more assumptions).

But for JOG, c 2000 days of earning $350k/day gives a total value to JOG (carried free remember) of c $700mm.

many more intelligent people than me will tell you hot to value that cash flow in 3yrs time, buit with no financial risk to JOG and only a Labour govt to circumnavigate, I think we can reasonably expect a slightly higher valuation for out company than the current c$100m.

Enjoy, and if you can take all the assumptions above with a sizeable dose of salt, sounds like the finishing party of c £10/share in Buckfastleigh might yet be appropriate.

Morning all. Another milestone. 10% of market cap received in milestone payment and we are rewarded with a 10% rise in SP.

Cash rich - never thought we’d say that. Given preponderance of Ithaca boys on board, I wonder if some of that cash will be spent buying production? Then real cash flow and indeed analysts can then start to make real forecasts. Just a thought!

James, it would appear that there's another huge trade of 8 shares gone thur this am...wondering if you find a spare £5 down the back of the sofa?

PS - Chav : a young person who wears fashionable sportswear or flashy jewelry but is regarded as badly behaved or as having lower-class taste.

Honestly mate - I am neither young, nor fashionable, I don't wear jewellery and I can promise you my wine cellar will attest to a slightly above average class of taste.

i've been desperately looking for the village that is short of its idiot so we can hand you back...every one of your posts of the past 6 weeks james has been rude / gnarly / aggresive about the bod, how you are selling your mountain of shares, how wonderful pantheon and orca are and generally how **** jog is...and the day we have a wee bounce, up you pop, its all me chaps, i'm back in again. you must keep a very poor diary of what you say, i'm amazed you'd be anywhere near this share given your heartfelt thoughts.

Chessman, I'm intrigued....are you suggesting some of us know how much time we have left? :-) EInbert still like the £43 option! JB, we've had our differences in the past, but fwiw, whilst I have every sympathy with your (and quite a few other's desire) to be permanently updated, if there is nothing new to say (as Jum suggests) then why say anything.

God, we've used the word patience so many times over the past umpteen years, but I guess we'll need it for some time yet... One last thought...I do wonder what % of the equity traded over the past few weeks has been short term buying on ST's ongoing positivism, then selling when global stocks / oil drift etc...all of which rather gets my goat! GLA and cummon Scotland :-)

Dear JS, just a short note to thank you for letting us have some cheap stock last week. Sorry to se Pantheon down 10% today and your other top tip Orca drifting as well, having ramped itself up to 18.5p. Let me know when you want your JOG stock back.

Love the rest of us shareholders.

Doing v well ? Discuss.

PANR @ 36p is down 75% over the past year but +18% today

Orca is down 74% over past year but +30% today

Jog is down 20% over the past year and poor thing has not moved today.

Lies damn lies and statistics…or more pertinently don’t let the facts get in tge way of a good story James!