Member Info for PC01

Hi Jim - like Dick I’ve thoroughly enjoyed your common sense approach to investing in Jog and your rather less than hysterical comments. In answer to your question re shareholder return, I think you’ll be very unlikely to see any of that ‘carry’ returned to shareholders just yet. I think the more likely use for said cash Will be to buy a performing asset to ensure constant cash flow to enable Jog to explore the other areas around Buchan. It’s worth remembering that Jog’s first spike in Sp was caused by the hope that Verbier might hold 75mm barrels of oil of which Jog (from memory) owned 17.5%. No one talks about Verbier or any of the other fields in which Jog holds an interest. So I think that’ll be their use for said cash.
Battery Metals - you are truly an ungrateful sod.

Hahahahahaha - 'I am behind him all the way.' Do you need reminding JS of some of your more poisonous quotes last thursday as the SP drifted down to £1.50? You are, sir, a complete - and here for once words fail me - but if there is a little village somewhere in rural England who's lost their idiot, can I politely suggest they call you?

Well JC, I think when the CEO stands up and says deal done maybe by end of 22 but defo by end of Q1, he did create a reason for optimism. I think Friday's statement, that had to be made, to me implied he missed by a matter of days to get over the line. It was an impossible job dealing with our numpty's in govt and forever changing rules - how do you model that! At the end of the day, we have a mkt cap of just £85m even after the rise of the past 2 days. Or c 60p/brl. With plenty of exploration potential all around to grow the resources. I do think it'd be a shame if the deal, when announced, was a full scale takeover. There is much to look forward to over the coming years (that said most of this board - yes I'm looking at you, JS have the patience of a gnat.)

Did I miss anything? The stock market remains the greatest way of transferring money from the impatient to the patient!! Wonder what JS we’ll have today? The 30p rise this morning James on your gazillion shares will have made you what the long suffering Mr Benitz earns in a year. No doubt you’ll find another stick to beat him with.
So we have another month of excitement…it’s quite fun this roller coaster. It’s only just beginning….

FJ - got any friends or relatives in Aberdeen? I gather the doorman at a certain office has been very busy these last 2 days?
Einbert - there are many ways of getting to £43. The easiest is :
33mm shares. £43/share creates a company worth £1.4bn.
100mm barrels of oil. Cost $30 to get out the ground. Duck gets cross when I say it might be closer to $40.
Oil at $80 (yes I know it’s $75 today but there’s much leverage being unwound as banks fall apart).
$50/barrel profit. 100 barrels x $50 = $5bn. Jog keeps 1/3 company …job done.
Variables: more oil (or less). Higher oil px(or lower). Jog sells more of the company (or pulls a blinder and sells less).
I personally think there’s more oil and a higher oil px and Jog sells 90% of the upside.
All of which makes a £65mm market cap rather irrelevant.

Whilst not posting here as much as I used to, nursing considerable losses despite flogging alot of stock after that last profit warning, I must take issue witht heidea that the px is being manipulated lower. What is happening is a small company isnt making any money. It needs to pay the bills and has for years relied on R&D tax credits to rpovide the requisite cash as well as plentiful dips into shareholders' pockets.
its a great company - which is why I once owned over 2% of it. But the management time after time have simply failed to get the company into a position where it can stand on its own 2 feet. EG, to quote the old chap OS, real +ve cashflow to pay the bills and provide a floor underneath long suffering shareholders' feet. God, i even mentioned to the company they should take out some cheap debt, when rates were near zero, as the FCF forecasts were looking quite positive.
They will have to do another equity raise. So its no surprise the mkt is drifting. Its not manipulation, its people like me losing faith and understanding that I will be able to buy more stock at 1p at some stage in the not too distant future. Its all v sad and quite depressing!

I've been in this since 2016 - had some good days and bad ones, this is undeniably the worst. I always believed their technology worked and find it hard to eblieve - per se - that AWS and Msoft who use Wand would not have the same view. So where does that leave the company?
Well - I reckon Mr Richards will be maiking alot of apolgetic calls to his major shareholders - he's not been short of charm and has found raising cash frequently ata premium to the list price that hard to pull off. I think, provided the company sint completely insolvent (not impossible\) there will be a fully underwritten share placing at something like £1 or 2/share along with a complete reshuffle of the baord and I imagine DR's job gone...its happened on his watch.
Wand will need to speak to all its partners and clients and assure them this was fraud but that the company and its ability to move large quantities of data is alive. It will take many years for forgiveness. So I think we should expect a 90% decline when it reopens. Then you decide whether you want to hold on or not.
My view - it eventually gets bought out by IBM or Msoft for pennies.

How about neither?? How about the fall to £1.60 was because a few small investors were impatient and bailed. And the bounce back to where we are now is other investors optimistic of a sensible outcome? Why does there have to be a leak?? Quite like the other nonsenses written on here over the past few days. Defo think oil at $150-200 is a very reasonable view given massive under investment from the west.
Sitting tight here - prefer the SP up above £3 plse on announcement date!

Hahaha - very good line! The price action is horrible, caused by lots of small PIs running scared - and wth some reason givem timescale and governmental interference. Dont blame anyone for leaving.
Personally think all will be fine - have decided to stop watching the SP, makes it easier!

Good luck all - and James S, stop worrying and stop denigrating AB - he has more than most a reason to succeed.

Could you be persuaded to run for the highest office FJ? A breath of fresh air...you probably need to meet my brother (who lives north of Perth just off what was the rgeatest driving road in the UK, the A9 before it became speed camera hell)...unless you are my brother? Views not dissimilar :-)

Did you try the Aberdeen office?

not sure James they can tell you anything that would make you feel warm n cuddly. If they did, they'd have to tell everyone.

I think you are spot on Einbert - and alot of fellow holders I have spoken to have the same view. Until we see the nuts n bolts of the deal, in whatever shape or form, we cannot attribute 'value' to JOG. Lots of moving parts - will we see deals with other producers as originally discussed for the central off take platform etc? Is there an infrastructure deal to be done etc...the only thing I do know is, in this day and age CEOs cannot say there's a deal that WILL be done most certainly by X date unless the ink is dry and the NOMAD can iign it off. And secondly, if there was no deal, the same is true. The CEO would have to let the mkt know as it would be undeniably market sensitive info which needs to be released immediately. With the absence of the latter and with confidence in the former, we must assume a deal remains the most likely conclusion, a small bounce on that news then we can let the intelligent people tell us how we are long an asset that is worth £43/share. Tho for those of a more elderly disposition in the meaning of life, the universe and everything, in our hearts we know the answer is £42!

Not that you are counting Abatt! Those Shell results interesting - great headline but interesting oil and gas output -10% y-y. Capex this year expected unch'd. This is what makes me think the oil price can go much higher. Investment is falling in the sector (see BNP cutting lending by 90% to OIl expo)...

...your thoughts on population etc Dick - I do think there is an unbelievable arrogance in the Woke generation that the earth is burning...and their desire to inflict energy poverty on the rest of the planet. No one ever votes for poverty and if, the west, were allowed our industrial revolution in the 1800s, who are we to deny the same to the Chinese, Indians and Africa? Without energy security, we have nothing and this idea we can solve 'it' without the use of fossil fuels is quite simply the stuff of childish dreams. Like most, I think a deal is a heartbeat away - but in what size or shape, god only knows. I have every sympathy for the negotiators tho, when the goal posts move daily / weekly etc. To console myself, I bought more yday.

Well James I think you bought my shares! I’ve sold 1/3 of my holding (c1mm shares) - been here probably longer than all of you (apart from OS who I still owe £10 and to whom I wished I’d listened!).
TD - I think questions to the board need to be how can the chairman’s statement of last year and today’s update be so far apart. Brokers will have to d’grade and I worry that there is not enough cash despite what the co says.
Have kept 2+mm shares in case of the rainy day Tesla victory but deeply wounded by the misleading comments that made me think ‘23 was going to be the year.
Wobble I fear your 24p is missing a well placed decimal point!

From the Chairman's statement late last year '"As reported in the Company's announcement on 29 September this year, the full year results for the last financial year demonstrated a very strong growth in sales, with product sales up 44% and Gross Margin up 43%.
We also indicated that the current financial year has started somewhat slower than expected due to several influences including: industry wide supply chain bottlenecks, especially in China, a global shortage of integrated circuits and increasing pessimism over the state of the global economy. However, we remain optimistic about the short term and long term growth prospects of the Company. Despite the slower than expected start to the year, there are indications that the order book is starting to bounce back and our outlook for full year revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the year ending 30 June 2023 remains in line with market expectations.'
The new year has not started slower than expected. Its fallen off the edge of a cliff. I'm afraid I have had to sell a few shares (quite a few). I also worry that cash is low. There may well be a positive resolution re Tesla, but this has been a disaster for me and I reckon a few others.

That's as poor an update as I can remember from this company. Back down we go.

I think I'd be slightly more worried if the SP was going down in heavy volume, but I'm not sure I can count 50k of shares past 3 days....there is, however, no doubt there is growing pressure on banks to stop lending to E&P co's...but you have to laugh at the idiocy of it all. We don't want to finance any more oil discoveries, so we run out of oil and gas. Then there's a war and OIL n Gas prices go thru the roof. Then all those crying out that its bad to lend to E&P cos want the govt to pay for their rising gas and electricity bills, so the govt decides in its brilliance it will tax the profits of these co's, who's ability to finance themselves is becoming under acute stress, even further. Lets build lots more windmills (that last 25 yrs and have a huge carbon footprint) and because the jet stream has moved then watch wind production drop to the lowest in a decade...nuclear? 25yrs to build. I mean its so ridiculous the whole thing.
Still, I didn't want a shiny new yacht, with a lovely young thing serving me chilled white burgundy anyway.

Sounds like a dangerous affliction to have Dick....cured only by lying on a boat off St Tropez being served chilled white burgundy served by something ...I'll leave the rest to your fevered imagination! James I remember u buying a few at £3.40 - think your more recent purchases in the low £2 will prove much more sensible! Its hard to see how Mr B could remain in his job after march 31st without a deals truck and terms known following his comments at the end of '22. So a maximum of 53 sleeps as we used to say to the children before the pitchforks and garden spades are found and brought to bear.....so lets hope the fairy dust can be found and the lives and fortunes of many on changed if the terms are 1/2 palatable.
Question - will the shareholders get a vote on any deal?

Firstly HNY to all - yes even you J Briggs even if we disagree vehemently! I have sympathy for those wanting the sugar rush of a t/o which takes the shareholders out at £4 say. Double or more and move on. However let me set out an alternative argument. Remembering current mkt cap is c £75m. Let’s use £/$ at 1.20 and Brent at $80 for simplicity’s sake.
Offer 1 - £4 and you are out of JOG and it’s ‘future’.
Offer 2 - JOG gets to farm out and left holding between 10% (normal) and 30% (rare and unlikely) of the carry. If we assume 150mm barrels and a cost of extraction of $40 (yes I know they said $30 but that was 2 years ago and we’ve had a little inflation since then) then the value of Buchan might v simply be $40/brl profit x 150mm less all sorts of accounting costs. But v simply there is $6bn of ‘value’ and this gives no credence to other potential discoveries (Verbier etc which was our first cause for excitement all those years ago!). Do you really want to sell your JOG shares at £150mm mkt cap (£4/share) when a 10% carry gives you an asset 3-4x that?
Then throw in oil at $120 and look at the potential gearing effect on the NAV. I can see the short term attraction of a £4 bid especially given the chaotic situation that abounds but I can see why AB might be forgiven for wanting a more exciting ride. These opportunities do not come very often. Thus why I think he’ll want JOG to stay the course.
GLA!