Member Info for PC01

Well Abatt - fair is a moot point! If there is 170mm barrels of oil in the ground and it costs $30/barl to get it out covering Capex n Opex...then you can do the Maths. £10 / share, given 33mm shares outstanding would value the company at - if my abacus is right - £330mm. Lets go back to 170mm barrels of oil. $115 gives a $85/brl 'rpofit'...and I appreciate there is all sorts of time value of money etc etc but $85x170mm makes $14.5bn. If JOG traded at £330m lets call it $500mm, that would mean you are happy for the company to be sold at c 3.5% of its potential NAV. and we havent even started talking about potential other pockets of oil in the GBA that might be recoverable / explorable etc.
So would I be happy with £10. Of course I would, it would be a life changing event for me. However, lets be in no doubt - going back to my top line here - if there is 170mm barrels of oil in Buchan and JOG holds the keys, then £10 despite it being 5x where we are today is miles from where I think we might politely call fair value.

I'm glad you didnt know Dick - but my (very) amateur lessons always led me to believe where this is Oil there is Gas. Its all rather irrelevant. As oil reaches my target of $120 about 9 months earlier than expected, we have the growing risk that JOG is taken out by unfriendly hostiles. £250m or c £10/share is peanuts for a few of the larger oil Cos who have a basic grasp of economics. The $40 rise in oil over the past month adds c $7bn to the NAV of the project which the market has deemed fit to reward with a £10m rise i mkt cap.

Dick - question for you. Of the assets in the GBA, do we know how much GAS there might be?? With Gas prices where they are, this presumably has become an extremely valuable extra arrow in the quiver, given we have always discussed the 170m brls of oil....

...enlighten me as to why the outgoing CEO should receive any payment given the complete destruction of shareholder value he oversaw, I'm all ears. REMCOs should not be rewarding failure in this way - 'well done old chap, here's a few ££ for seeing a 95% decline in the SP, off you go there's a good lad'....god give me strength.

What have I missed? Results seemed ok. We're definitely a year closer to profit? Maybe patience running thin? Anyway bought more shares (really must stop doing this!) at 4.64p (250k) and have left an order to buy more at 4p should whoever selling want to give them away. Wrong price here I think.

Why nuts Robsroom? As Dick and quite a few of us (tho he rather more eloquently than the rest of us) have been saying for some time - the asset here is deeply undervalued....I understand all the posters comments on here that AB is yet to deliver, but again take great heart that he has surrounded himself with people who have delivered huge value once already. In the same area. I doubt there has ever been a better time to be discussing a farm out. All Simon Thompson has said - and not for the first time - is that if they achieve said farm out, the current metric suggest that the deal should be done multiples in excess of the current SP. We can see a large overhang of stock has cleared today. I dont see why today's SP moveis nuts, except for the fact that it shouldnt need yet another endorsement from a well known share tipster to get it moving.

...or has a large overhang of shares just been removed from the mkt?

A nuclear strike would probably make all this rather irrelevant! It was Einstein who said the 4th world war would be fought with bow and arrows....

Thats my greatest fear! £3 for 150m bls + of oil that costs c $30 to cover opex n capex. That would be larceny on a huge scale! I do laugh - when we started this project - JOG shares rose to £4 because it had a 17% stake in Verbier that might have held up to 125mm barrels of oil. We get awarded 6x that in sole control by the GBA and shares are 75% lower.

I must say - I didnt think oil would hit $100 because of a madman in the Kremlin...but more because global oil demand would continue to exceed what the world can produce. I was interested to see the IEA quietly (cos they have been underestimating oil demand for the last 5yrs) upgrade global demand by 600k bpd...there is no doubt that poil at $100 will create huge opportunity...we just need to find a company with lots of barrels of the stuff waiting to take it out the ground...oh wait!
Happy belated birthday Dick and enjoy the cruise MP0818!

I bloddy well hope they will be FCF +ve next year. Order boo of AUD$50mm, gross margin increasing to north of 50%, it would be hugely surprising if they weren't. Still can't make a profit tho (Open after his marmite and cuppa Tea will comment on that, I still owe him a £10-er!). Quite like the 'aggressively' part of the IP protection, seems to have gone up a gear and makes me feel they are much more optimistic on the outcome. So they should be. All in all pretty decent but SP might still take time to reach the sunlit uplands of 20p.

If you download the DT app, I think it costs you about £1 for the first 3 months. Its the first article in politics. Basically Richi Sunak saying what we've all been saying. Green agenda madness without investment in O&G to preserve our energy dependency.

Sadly - for every lumpy buyer there has to be a lumpy seller. No chance in god's green earth any market-maker would short large quantities of the stock given potential for news to drop any time soon. Which means someone doesn't share my optimism and is happy to let stock go despite Brent touching $93+. The SP is implying precisely zero chance I reckon of success given the implied mathematical upside should a farmout be agreed on even 1/4 decent terms.

or...$60/pb profit post opex n capex. It's ll be disappointing if OIL gets to my target of $120 and I get that spectacularly right nad JOG spectacularly wrong! Ho hum...one feels it must be getting easier for Mr Benitz et al!

The numbers looked good for JOG with OIl above $60. Above $85 they look silly. Above $100 I think the company ceases to exist as an independent. I have been rather more accurate with my oil forecasts than my JOG SP forecasts, but for the ole fashioned ****s n giggles, OIL at $100 with Opex and Capex at $30 (or lower) seems to make alot of noughts on my old abacus. Problem is, not sure I can add anymore!

It’s death by a 1000 cuts isn’t it. Each day gone another day lost, comfortable in the knowledge if i moved on the RNS the very next will greet my exit with a glaring ‘d’oh’!! Oil has recovered all its pre-Omicron losses and seems he’ll vent on reaching my $100-120 target given this year we go - for the first time ever - into a daily deficit of what is consumed vs what physically can be produced. Years of under investment in the O&G industry has led us to this point where we are causing v real damage to people’s livelihoods and living standards. A green agenda is all v well but the world can’t and won’t stop using oil just because we want to.

Haven’t posted for a while and trust all well with you all. Is it me or does 2022 look like the year of the I-o-T? CPX doing all that is right here. Can’t help feeling a decent re-rate coming once the court case ends. Even old OS must be beginning to get a little optimistic about the future! Tho no doubt his accountancy background will want to see all these contracts converted into pounds shillings and pence!
Good luck all - think the 15p broker targets are pessimistic!

Is there any chance we can return this LSE site to discuss the potential fortunes or otherwise of JOG? I’m sure the various multiple aliases that some people use are of interest to someone but to be honest it’s doin’ my head in! Long wait I’m sure you’re a lovely chap but plse all I care about is oil : how much : when : who and if I’ll make a turn! For the love of all that is holy can we revert to Dick’s occasional intelligencies and live in hope that - cos we haven’t done this for a while :
180mm barrels of oil
$50 / brl profit
Etc etc!

There’s a lot of stock trading! Not sure if its an intra fund transfers or if a new buyer taking up loose stock. But I like the way the stock has traded this past week.

Given the oil ain’t coming out the ground til 2025 at the earliest probably makes the POO over the next week or month dare I say year rather irrelevant!