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Surety - you raise a good point - and one which a very good friend of mine who has made much money in the oil business over the years has pointed out to me. Namely, that SPs tend to rise on optimism but get supported on fundamentals. And whilst we can dream about what JOG might be worth one day, what will provide ballast and support is real hard cash on the balance sheet...which it should have in the next 3-6mths (indeed as mucha s $50mm within the next 12 months as its being carried by neo now...)and then that cash making real hard $$. I have had it usggesetd more than once that JOG should spend quite a bit of its war chsets on a performing north sea asset that will enable it to say to shareholders, we are making X each month. If they did that, then they will have the added benefit of having an income alongside a pipe dream, one which we shareholders have supported thru thick n thin and one which will enable more serious minded institutions who tend not to let pipe dreams drive investment decisions but FCF and Ebitda be the main drivers....
So i can see the SP drifting between cash and hope (£1.50 and £3.50 say) until the milestone payments have been received and the company has worked out a decent way to invest said payments....
just a thought!
Dick you're not wasting your time my dear chap - however, the mkt remains completely indifferent to good news, however I can promise you any bad news will be met with a severe beating! Simon Thompson 'they're cheap' gets 20 odd trades as a few fly by nights buy...then a week later when it hasn't double bagged (I'm in the phraseology these days!) they sell, forgetting quite why they bought in the first place....rinse n repeat. I've said it so often - and will repeat again - if you have a great business model, idea etc the UK is simply the last place on the planet to try and make it work. So anti-business, taxed when you earn, taxed when you invest, taxed when you take your pension, a further 20% VAT when you buy anything. So i understand why this trades at a 75% discount to fair value. And for most of us, despite a notinal £8 FV (and £43 if you think all moons align :-)) we'd probably jump at a £4/share bid by someone with deep pockets and needful of some tax losses.
Einbert...if you peruse the Nobody's alcoholic beverage list, you will see it has the largest 'elixir of life' list of any pub in the land!
Slightly joking apart, I was talking to an oil man who has a small amount of JOG shares,,,who thought it might need JOG to buy a performing asset and start 'actually making money' to get itself a re-rating....whether it can do that at a time when I imagine all hands are on deck for the next timelines, I'm not sure...and also not sure if much appetite to raise $50m say to buy said performing asset in this current environment....but not first time I've heard it mentioned as a potential catalyst....
Loving this chat about Buckfastleigh - my parents got married there in 1953...good catholic stock my mother...told self control not birth control on the ev eof her wedding...as the youngest of 9 she patently didnt have much!
JOG doing ok I think - £2 +/-. Its cheap, as we all know, but then when you can get almost 6% return in 6mth US Tbills, its a competitive mkt out there for capital. Oil still trading well, and a move to $100 still very much my belief...which will, sadly, cause Central Bankers more sleepless nights as inflation stays depressingly high, especially as we seem hell bent on giveing the 'must WFH' elite 10% pay rises every other day...
grumble over...I'd recommend the Nobody Inn as our meeting point for the £43 party. not far from Buckfastleigh and a delightful edge of dartmoor pub!
Morning all - I first bought this share in 2017...i thought it would be valuable to remind all who are starting on their journey with this company, are still with thsi company and have hope and thent eh 3rd type - people like me - who own still way too many shares. Why the negativity when they have such high hopes for the future? Well :
June 2017 trading update : The Company has adequate cash resources to meet its foreseeable needs and the Board is increasingly confident of a successful conversion of the growing pipeline of high value enquiries received for licensing and manufactured products.
June 2018 TU : The Board of CAP-XX is pleased to announce that as it approaches the end of its financial year ending 30 June 2018, the Company has received a sharp increase in enquiry levels across all product ranges, including its recently announced 3 Volt technology. Total enquiries, if converted to orders, would amount to annualised sales in excess of US$20m per annum,
June 2019 TU : The rising level of sales enquiries, when considered together with our previously announced product development initiatives, gives the Board increasing confidence for the outlook for the next financial year and beyond.
May 2020 - Covid - TU - The current sales order book for the underlying CAP-XX product lines is greater than twice the level at the same point last year. This increase has been driven by the medical, security and telecommunication market segments.
June 2021 TU - The Directors are encouraged by the recent performance of the Company and view the outlook with increasing confidence.
July 2022 Tu - The Board is encouraged by the outlook for FY23 and beyond and expects to see continued strong growth in product sales.
Todays Tu - Although the market remains relatively volatile, with ongoing geo-political impacts coupled with economic headwinds such as inflation and the energy crisis, the Board looks forward to the 2023/24 financial year with confidence. This expectation is supported by a broadly based increase in orders across the product portfolio and a notable strengthening of the book-to-bill ratio in the past three months.
All this confidence has led to a decline in the SP from 12p to 1.4p and huge dilution for the poor shareholders who have - quite idiotically and with only themselves to blame - believed the opportunity afforded by this company and the very obvious 'enlightened future' we've been promised for the past 6 years. I'd just question any one reading todays update and thinking. well the board are optimsitic...its a not a new phenomenon!
Ho hum, roll on 2024 when they will no doubt be really optimistic!
I've urged patience for days / weeks / months indeed even years delete as applicable as I expected at some stage the market will understand the value and we will re-rate. Depsite the odd golden day or week, there is still too much loose stock floating about...and with no real institutional support as yet, there is no one to sit on the bid to mop up the free float. So we are where we are. To reiterate :
£60m (current market cap) buys you :
§ $2 million cash payment on completion of the transaction - now received
§ a full carry for JOG's 50% share of the estimated $25 million cost to take the Buchan field through to Field Development Plan ("FDP") approval
§ $9.4 million cash payment upon finalisation of the GBA development solution
§ $12.5 million cash payment on approval of the Buchan FDP by the North Sea Transition Authority ("NSTA")
§ a 12.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs included in the FDP approved by the NSTA; equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio
§ $5 million cash payment on each FDP approval by the NSTA in respect of the J2 and Verbier oil discoveries
so c $46mm in cash plus the $10m or so in the bank plus 10-20% carry of the entire field so c 15-30mm barrels of oil.
One day someone will wake up and steal this company from under our noses and we'll all say, with the SP at £4 well we did ok. But it will be tragic (if /) when that happens, as I so strongly believe it will. Ho hum.
Leaked last week I reckon - up to 3p on the automotive announcement then smashed down.
Ola TechTom been a while! We just need KenCarv and the band is back! Not sure AK laughing. He’s a large shareholder and has many options that won’t be vesting! But he’s had a good run at it. A great technician but a vnpoor CEO. Twas always thus!
….half a brain could see the company needed money to keep going. The last update could not have been clearer. Monies raised (I think - I haven’t read fully underwritten yet?). Will allow the company to limp through another year. What’s this, the 4th or 5th such raising over the past 5 years? At ever lower prices it seems. A wobble you can rant as much as you like but the bare facts are pretty simple. You are (and I have been) aggressively diluted and we own less of a company that’s worth less. By any investment analysis that’s not great!
To the future? Well it was option money in my view yday and is even more so today. A dusty back draw. And who knows but it’ll be an unbelievable recovery to see 5p again.
That was me sir. I still own way too much of CPX given its current share price and operating performance and as said at the time, do expect the company in all likelihood to have to have another cap raise having failed to heed my thoughts of taking on some debt when money was being given away (no longer the case!). I sold about 1/3rd my holding c 3p after that latest trading announcement but have done nothing since and watch, hoping that they get a break against Maxwell and the global economic slowdown doesnt become too aggressive. I thought last week's announcement was pretty positive but until the next cap raise is done (who's going to underwrite it until they know about the Maxwell case?) I'm not sure there is much to be done here. Thus my lack of postings.
One I've got very wrong - but things can change and a $25mm win would undenia,bly help things out somewhat! GLA.
James - please. if you did indeed own close to 1mm shares and therefore had between £2 nd 33mm of your hard earned, inherited or stolen wedge in this stock, surely you have better things to do than to watch the ticker and announce with much glee every time 10k goes through. It is extraordinarily dull. From what I can gather, you hated it at £2.50, you piled in large between £3 and £3.50, you bailed out down at £2, bought back in again at £3 and then all the way up from £1.50....and are bailing out again at £2.50. The only one to have made money out of all this trading is the lucky market-maker! Maybe give it a rest, there's a good lad.
Nobby not sure why they have any need whatsoever? Look at the financials int he RNS :
Transaction Summary
In exchange for entering into definitive agreements to divest a 50% working interest and operatorship in the GBA licences to NEO, the Company will receive:
§ 12.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs included in the FDP approved by the North Sea Transition Authority ("NSTA"); equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio
§ Carry for JOG's 50% share of the estimated $25 million cost to take the Buchan field through to FDP approval
§ $2 million cash payment on completion of the transaction
§ $9.4 million cash payment upon finalisation of the GBA development solution
§ $12.5 million cash payment on approval of the Buchan FDP by the NSTA
§ $5 million cash payment on each FDP approval by the NSTA in respect of the J2 and Verbier oil discoveries
I think what you are seeing is private investors thinking they could make a quick buck on the announcement, loading up on the RNS just before the end of March, seeing the rNS just before easter and thent eh great ant-climactic...oh, is that it? You mean I have to wait til 2026 for first oil? Bu55er that, I'm off....much derisked - for sure. Much to excite over the coming few days n weeks, nothing. So a slow drift down til the last low hanging fuit falls, then we'll bounce. I'm hoping it wont go below £2, but wouldnt be surprised. I've written many times before - AIM stocks are v rarely for those of a long term disposition.
Briggs and Battery can say they were right, look at the SP, it doesn't lie. We LTHs can say 'its a silly market, shareholders have been offered the chance to buy the same company with the same risks at a 20% discount to what it cost yesterday just afetr the company has said all the risks have been removed!' I think we have to understand that a lot of punters (for thats what they are) were hoping a quick bounce to £5, double their money and move on to the enxt low hanging fruit. First oil in 2026 is a 1000 trading days - beyond the patience of many.
Let the fly-by-nights move on, let new money come in. This will settle somwehere around here and as work is done will gently move higher. But the crucial point is - for the long term believers, we've just been derisked at one fell swoop, for which many thanks should be given, despite a rather derisory share price performance today.
Had to check …October 2018 first purchase. Been a fun ride with more than a few downs. But always believed. £43 just sounds so right. But £10 will do. Think we r not far from knowing. GlA - ps what we done with Battery n Simon? Scared them off?