Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Absolutely right - once observers see the potential of this and accept that fossil fuels are probably with us, perhaps indefinitely, then this will be through the roof long before 1st oil.
In case anyone doubts that, there's the small matter of the ICSID award, which I'm sure will be paid eventually. On that one, don't forget the tax liability on the 'loss of profits' bit, possible enforcement costs and the possibility that RKH may sell part of the award at a discount - it's still one hell of a big sum, even after all that, to be added directly to the sp.
Cheers SH!
First the presentation - what he says looks unbelievably good, and that's with oil at a mere $75.
It's certainly worth looking at this again as it summarises the situation at the gloomiest of times, with virtually all the problems/issues raised in the presentation now history, plus a significantly larger ICSID award than RT's top estimate.
Regarding 1st oil in 2026, I'm not saying it's impossible, but for those about to bet their shirts on this project, anticipating £5/share in 2026, just think about:
- when's FID scheduled to be announced? - we don't know.
- when's project sanction going to be announced? - we don't know.
- if 1st oil in 2026 is really Navitas' plan, that leaves absolutely nothing to chance. Everything is going to have to go 100% to plan (which will have to be a VERY tight plan). e.g. not only will the 2nd-hand FPSO have to be acquired, but the contracting yard will have to finish the modification work without any slippage, etc., etc..
- has any of us (except M-D, who we don't even know) heard Gideon Tadmor state publicly that this is what he, IR and his team are going to deliver? No we haven't.
For those who've never managed a project of this size, don't be seduced by the smooth words of someone on a bulletin board, who you don't even know, just because it's what you want to hear.
Time to revisit this presentation, where the PoO is taken as $75/barrel:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9VY9Yh-qfRE
Many people here complained (and continue to do so) about the time taken by the tribunal over this claim.
One reason is probably because the tribunal doesn't sit all the time, but could only meet occasionally, but the main reason is probably because they had to follow and be seen to follow the correct procedure to the letter, so that they could never be accused of having failed to take account of all the annulment criteria.
I would agree on the principal - any corruption on the part of any tribunal member is highly undesirable and would taint the reputation of the Tribunal, but as has been said many times, if you dig deep enough for long enough, you'll eventually unearth something, even about your saintly granny!
"To be honest why wouldn't it be true?"
I'm in very little doubt that RKH and the FI are going places - everyone involved stands to gain and no one is standing in the way.
However, what's the problem about challenging posts that are not entirely truthful and varnishing the facts?
Why do some here so relaxed about posts/reports that are at best inaccurate and at worst, downright misleading, or even worse?
I agree we should try and be polite, although sometimes that's difficult, but at least stick to the truth.
We now have confirmation about the visit to the FI (which we knew about anyway), but:
- there was no public meeting, as reported by M-D and all his extra chairs;
- I cannot see how 1st oil can happen in 2026, if the dates for FID and Sanction aren't known - that really is putting the cart before the horse.
When asked to explain, M-D can't, but whinges instead. It won't do and he knows it.
I come here for discussion and facts, not fantasy and fiction and some trying to make themselves appear important.
"He also confirmed he has just returned from the FI along with a large Navitas contingent including Gideon."
In that case kr2009, I'd have expected M-D to have known and remembered who was addressing him at that meeting last week.
M-D, as you insist on continuing here, why not make yourself useful.
I assume your FI contact hasn't just evapourated, so why not ask him/her for more detail, so we can benefit:
- who was the strong Israeli guy, who made such a confident speech?
- I can't imagine he stated 1st oil in 2026 without some reference to FID and Project Sanction, as these dates would be very important to FI residents - just think of the job opportunities. So, when did he say he expected FID and Sanction?
- I expect he would have given some ideas about job opportunities and local recruitment, to be able to produce oil in 2026. So, what did he say about that?
- What did he say about FI revenue expectations, as the Islanders have been debating what to do about increasing revenues, including industrial salmon farming, which almost everyone has rejected. So, did this Strong Israeli guy have anything to say about what oil production would do for the island finances - surely he didn't forget to mention such an important point, when trying to win everyone's support for the SL project?
Thanks Mam - something went a bit wrong with the text formatting, so apologies for the errors, but something needed to be posted quickly about those who are trying to mislead us and then getting stroppy because they've been found out.
Please provide the quote where I called anyone a liar.
Many of us knew that a combined RKH/Navitas team were visiting the FI at the end of Feb / beginning March - we knew that, so that's never been in dispute.
The team was to be headed by Sam for RKH and Ian Ramsay representing Navitas, there was never any mention of an 'main man - Israeli Guy' going - perhaps GT himself.
What is in dispute is that there was a senior Israeli attending, who said that the project would be starting in the FI NEXT YEAR and that 1st oil would be in 2026.
We don't know a lot about GT, except that he's not prone to making exaggerated announcements, unlike Tony Durrant used to do (and look where that got him).
So I'd abused for asking reasonable questions about a "main man - Israeli Guy was strong & powerful in his speeches", who allegedly travelled 16,000 miles return, to tell the F Islanders to expect 1st oil in 2026, without even mentioning when FID and project sanction might happen.
There's no mention in any news bulleting about this momentous announcement, Penguin News don't know any more than we already knew about RKH/Navitas the visit.
When I ask for elaboration, I'm abused for being a bully.
You're all grown ups, so you decide who to believe, but now that I've been accused of saying that M-D is a liar (which I didn't), I am going to say that his story is full of holes and shouldn't be believed and don't buy shares on the strength of his story.
What is in dispute is that there was a senior Israeli attending, who said that the project would be starting in the FI NEXT YEAR and that 1st oil would be in 2026.
We don't know a lot about GT, except that he's not prone to making exaggerated announcements, unlike Tony Durrant used to do (and look where that got him).
So I'd abused for asking reasonable questions about a "main man - Israeli Guy was strong & powerful in his speeches", who allegedly travelled 16,000 miles return, to tell the F Islanders to expect 1st oil in 2026, without even mentioning when FID and project sanction might happen.
There's no mention in any news bulleting about this momentous announcement, Penguin News don't know any more than we already knew about RKH/Navitas the visit.
When I ask for elaboration, I'm abused for being a bully.
You're all grown ups, so you decide who to believe, but now that I've been accused of saying that M-D is a liar (which I didn't), I am going to say that his story is full of holes and shouldn't be believed and don't buy shares on the strength of his story.
What is in dispute is that there was a senior Israeli attending, who said that the project would be starting in the FI NEXT YEAR and that 1st oil would be in 2026.
We don't know a lot about GT, except that he's not prone to making exaggerated announcements, unlike Tony Durrant used to do (and look where that got him).
So I'd abused for asking reasonable questions about a "main man - Israeli Guy was strong & powerful in his speeches", who allegedly travelled 16,000 miles return, to tell the F Islanders to expect 1st oil in 2026, without even mentioning when FID and project sanction might happen.
There's no mention in any news bulleting about this momentous announcement, Penguin News don't know any more than we already knew about RKH/Navitas the visit.
When I ask for elaboration, I'm abused for being a bully.
You're all grown ups, so you decide who to believe, but now that I've been accused of saying that M-D is a liar (which I didn't), I am going to say that his story is full of holes and shouldn't be believed and don't buy shares on the strength of his story.
"In future if someone is kind enough to share this kind of information, can I suggest we take them at their word?
If in doubt by all means email Penguin news etc but rather than openly accusing them of lying, do it behind the scenes and if you come up with evidence to show someone has sought to mislead us all, then by all means call them out.
Innocent until proven guilty would be a good way to go."
Mam, I agree in the principle of what you post, but if one is as trusting as you suggest, others may rush out and buy shares on the strength of dodgy postings.
So, doubts need to be posted ASAP, then those still wanting to buy shares can make their own minds up.
I'm just asking perfectly legitimate questions, which all-of-a-sudden you don't seem to want to answer.
First, who was 'The main man - Israeli Guy'? Surely, if you attended a meeting like this, you'd know who had been speaking, especially if it was Gideon Tadmor, the chairman of Navitas? If it was GT, that's pretty high level stuff to go all the way to the FI, and I'd expect to have seen at least one report about it in Mercopress / Penguin News by now (who have already reported the ending of the 2016 cooperation pact, announced here on Thursday).
Regarding "first oil in 2026", that's quite a challenge, especially as M-D's post says that "They said they intend to be in the Falkland to commence the project NEXT YEAR". That makes it less than 3 years from project start to 1st oil in a remote location 8,000 miles away, with no infrastructure and not much, if any, local support. In fact, since the recent announcement, Argentina has now returned to being unfriendly, so no help from there.
As I said before, there's no FPSO yet. As that's going to be a used one, it has to be identified and acquired. Then the modification specification (for SL oil production) and contract has to be agreed with a contractor and the modification work scheduled to be ready for testing before 2026, plus all the other things and more, which I listed before.
If you really think about it, confidently and suddenly announcing 1st oil in 2026 seems a bit reckless, especially from a company that has studiously avoided making many announcements so far, unless absolutely necessary.
Don't you think that might have deserved a mention in Mercopress / Penguin News?
While I really want to believe this story, I find it somewhat incredible, perhaps told by someone who wasn't there?
We know there was to be a joint RKH / Navitas visit to the FI at the end of Feb, beginning March, so that bit's probably true, but it was to be Sam from RKH and Ian Ramsay from Navitas, not GT himself, announcing when 1st Oil would be, when we don't even know when FID will be announced.
When I initially read DEM's posting from early yesterday, I thought it a bit harsh, but I now think he's probably right.
On the strength of M-D's posting, some may well rush out and buy RKH shares, thinking that as 1st oil is only 3 to 4 years away, these shares are going to be perhaps as much as a few quid by then.
I'm confident things are looking up, but not quite as fast as M-D claims.
'Bully?' - I think not. Just asking sensible questions.
If there is any bullying going on here, I suggest it's those trying to shut me up by shouting their usual stuff at me.
Totally agree PaulD, and current sentiment appears to favour investment in commodity projects like this, especially now that pretty well everyone is accepting that fossil fuels have a very long way to run.
Also agree with SpaceHoppa, so M-D, don't take the challenges personally. If we were chatting about this in the pub, you'd expect someone to ask you to elaborate, or explain something, wouldn't you?
If whoever it was really did say first oil by 2026, then could you add any detail please? Wouldn't someone have challenged that by saying: "what, 2026? Did I hear that right? If so, how do you plan to do that? You haven't even selected the FPSO yet, which'll need modifying and then there's all the land-based infrastructure to put in place. You've got to identify the best sites, acquire the land, get planning approval and then transport all the stuff (much of it very bulky) as much as 8,000 miles".