Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
No doubt I've got my sums wrong, but assuming all the warrants are taken up, won't that provide just under an additional £5.5M for RKH, at best?
I wouldn't mind being given £5.5M, but with OM interest being added at about £1.25 - £1.5M per month, that far exceeds any income from the warrants and with no dilution.
I realise the interest depends on there being no annulment and that the award remains largely intact, but I think that's an assumption I'm prepared to make.
In any case, RKH will only need a significant additional funding if things are progressing to FID, then Sanction, etc., in which case, there'd be absolutely no problem in raising what by then will be a relatively trivial sum.
I find it rather confusing, but it only refers to what happens if the day of the announcement is a 'Saturday, a Sunday, a public holiday', not the Saturdays, Sundays or public holidays in between.
I think I'm going to wait and see, just like with everything else associated with RKH, OM and SL's progress.
Is that the best you can do?
On 9/3/23 you posted: "Ovets … for once I can’t disagree with anything you have said"
So, what you come here to do is disagree rather than discuss and in the process, you continue to make an ass of yourself, by making false assumptions.
Why not try to be constructive, at least occasionally.
Mr Market doesn't what?
Anyway, who is Mr Market? The herd?
Your Mr Market gets it wrong a lot of the time.
Just because the herd runs off in a particular direction doesn't make it right.
One of the most famous contrarians of all time is Warren Buffett, and he's hardly an idiot, is he?
"Low volumes, the big holders will want warrants to expire worthless so that there is no further dilution. They will keep the prices low".
Not at all sure about this statement - there's a lot of misunderstanding and misinformation about companies raising cash and share dilution. Sometimes it's good news and sometimes it's not.
Companies issue new shares for many reasons, including:
- to raise cash to prevent insolvency;
- to acquire a business, as part of corporate expansion;
- to buy a new factory, site, building, as part of corporate expansion;
- to buy tools and equipment, for increased production and/or improved quality;
In most of the above cases, the market views the 'dilution' as a benefit and, for a well-managed company with a bright future, the share price will rise, as existing shareholders scramble to get as many new shares as possible.
Even the example to prevent insolvency could be viewed as a benefit, if the company is well-managed and, apart from running out of cash, everything else looks positive.
The one that shareholders hate is parting with even more money to keep what is probably a lost cause afloat - the classic 'throwing good money after bad', with shareholders unwilling to accept that this one's going to the wall, so cut your losses and spend that money on something better.
At the end of 2021, beginning 2022, that's how RKH was looking, with COP26 telling everyone that fossil fuels (especially coal) are finished. RKH had a pile of problems about to swallow what little cash was left (e.g. TDF decommissioning costs, Italy decommissioning costs, etc.). If that wasn't bad enough, Harbour/PMO walking away, no sign of that OM award, with most shareholders stating that an award of, say, £50M would be pretty good. To finish things off, SL licences were to expire soon and the RKH coffers more-or-less empty.
A year later and things couldn't look much more different. I really don't know what people were expecting from Navitas, but as they used to say: "What more do you want, jam on it?".
and don't forget, the OM ICSID award almost certainly paid-out + accrued interest - any tax due on the lost profits component.
I also don't agree with the time-scale. Navitas are showing every sign of great urgency about this, which is more than just a bit of impatience.
Agreed Kong.
What were people expecting? Gideon to stand up and say: "to save wasting time, this announcement is the FID. I've asked my dad and he's going to pay for everything. So now, I'm off to the pub - see you there and the drinks are one me"
It would be interesting to see the details from these 19 cases, to be able to compare the strength of the arguments, which resulted in annulment / partial-annulment, with the strength of the arguments that the Italian State has submitted on this occasion.
It's a good thing Rogue Trader didn't repeat himself, otherwise we'd have been listening to him all day!!!
Agree with SH - it's only one guys opinion, even if quite a worthwhile opinion, and there seem to be quite a few holes in his knowledge / understanding of the actual situation.
I wouldn't want SL to be dependent on other income, as that dependency could bugger the project's progress. If it is Navitas' intention to fund SL independently of everything else, then if there are any problems with, say, Shenandoah, then SL can continue unaffected.
Ralph - a proper ray of sunshine aren't you:
- Navitas' got no money and they'll pull out
- The World banking sector is collapsing
- Navitas are junk just like PMO, 3 piles of $hite together now !
- NAVITAS: wouldn't surprise me if they pulled out
- Navitas - Another partner with no money !
For anyone to fund SL (and beyond), they're going to want to see not only the scale and quality of SL, but that experienced and competent people are managing and delivering the project.
Of course funding is absolutely fundamental - I think we all get that, but there's much to do before getting that funding.
Navitas started recruiting before signing their SL agreement with RKH last year. Ian Ramsay was already working on the project before the deal was signed. That took some commitment on the part of Navitas, also showing how urgently they wanted to get on with it.
Then those, like Ian Ramsay giving up secure jobs for this "junk" (as you called it). That also showed great commitment from those who really know what they're doing.
But on the Ralph-Scale, that counts for nothing - only having the funding counts for anything.
As I've already said, no one was / is going to provide that much funding to a project that looked as though it was going to be a repeat of PMO, with its team of 60, burning away £Millions without actually delivering anything.
Ralph, I suggest you swap your horse and cart around, with the horse at the front. As some are saying here, the funding is probably already more-or-less guaranteed, as long as a strong project team is demonstrating it knows what it's doing and is engaging with FIG to ensure everything is organised there too.
Ralph says: Navitas "have not put any meaningful funds into this yet as they do not have it".
So, all these guys have left their well-paid jobs and GT & Co. flying all over the place to do all this for nothing?
FIG diverting their already minimal resources to having meetings with these ne'er do wells?
I thought we already know that a refitted/modified used FPSO is what's going to be used.
The modification spec will need to be drawn-up with a contractor, who will need to get on with it immediately, if 2026/27 has any credibility.
So it's not just a matter of popping out to Wickes to buy the FPSO. And you're right about yards being booked-up for years, as well as the cost being too great, at least for getting SL started.
Folks, just ignore M-D, he's like a wasp at a picnic, or as Daikihaku so beautifully put it, like herpes.
There's no RNS today, as some had hoped/expected, and no one is confirming M-D's fantasy about 1st oil in 2026, because as explained below, that's almost impossible to achieve, especially with no announcement about FID, Sanction, etc.
GT is the sort of guy who will announce something when he's good and ready and worth saying and NOT before.
Assuming he even knows about M-D referring to him as "The main man - Israeli Guy was strong & powerful in his speeches" and the 1st oil in 2026 announcement, he must be laughing at the stupidity of it and that we could have been so gullible.
Let's wait for the real RNS telling us what is actually happening.