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HappyInvester, that's why, in a recent post, I was suggesting we need to arrive at a realistic sp figure to try and ensure that weak-willed, uninformed and/or impatient PIs don't give-in to the first offer that comes along, messing it up for the rest of us.
At the time (24/4/23, 15:49), no one here seemed very interested.
I wouldn't sell for less than £2
First, just over a year ago, who'd have thought we'd be filling this BB discussing the procedures and costs for the recovery of about £200M?
While interesting, I'm happy to leave it to K&S, who stand to gain a considerable amount by getting it right - and don't forget, they're supposed to be the best in this field.
As for costs, while it's no doubt a lot of money for you and me, for those involved, it's peanuts and the RKH IIs won't let this award to slip through their fingers. Also, once SL FID is announced, there'll be little problem in raising funds, if any are needed.
As for the annulment, after all the considerable waffle on this BB since the award was announced last year, not a single person has suggested which of the very few criteria for successful annulment might apply in this case.
So I say, annulment isn't going to happen, nor a reduction in the award. In their announcement on 24/4/23, the Ad Hoc committee included reference to "..........the arbitration panel unanimously held that Italy had breached its obligations under the Energy Charter Treaty", so that's the baseline from which they are deliberating the annulment application.
I say, get on with some gardening (assuming you have a garden), leave things to K&S and enjoy watching the interest accrue.
This ICSID process isn’t necessarily like normal legal procedure (which can differ from one jurisdiction to another), but i sense the ad hoc committee is sympathetic with RKH, but mustn’t be seen to be taking sides.
It was definitely Glenrothes and he harvested a lot of PI details in his attempt to take control, when many PIs were desperate.
I think it was DEM who saw through his possible plan, but others may correct me.
Whatever the exact facts, there are undoubtedly those out there who would try and pick up RKH on the cheap and then, having got rid of us, seriously cash-in as SL moves to production.
Those like Glenrothes would offer what some smaller PIs might consider a 'good price' for their shares, but would actually be daylight robbery.
One way of helping to defend ourselves from Glenrothes and his aliases / successors is to try and arrive at a realistic valuation for RKH shares, so that the weaker, or more impatient shareholders don't sell us out, to a bunch of thieves, for peanuts.
No Latics, Mogger is the one who regularly researches and produces excellent factual material.
As for your ignorance, please don't forget that you were the one who asked: if Navitas are going to use an FPSO, then what would they want a rig for?
It's OK to ask questions, when you don't understand what's going on, but don't then call others 'ignorant'.
I'm expecting it this week, but I'm also used to having to wait and wait and wait--------etc., so resigned to doing just that.
Lifting the stay would be highly desirable. I would see that as indicative of the the ad hoc committee's attitude towards their eventual ruling on the annulment.
They've got a long way to go before that's announced, but I suspect they've already formed some initial opinions, after all, there's a shed-load of arbitration tribunal material on file for them to get a pretty good idea, and as we've already said, their unanimous decision isn't without merit.
Suppose we've just got to let them get on with it.
Good point - my understanding is that if Italy fails to pay the ICSID award, that will materially afford the RoI's ability to borrow. The usual outcome of that is they'll have to pay higher interest on loans, so it's really VERY important.
From the Italian PoV, to try and annul this annoying award to a tin-pot nothing of a company based in Salisbury, well known to Russian tourists for its spire.
From a RKH PoV, as long as we can keep holing on (and the II shareholders will help to ensure they do) we've more-or-less got the macaronis by the borrox, because the unanimous award decision virtually rules out an annulment and probably any award reduction too. So we just harvest the monthly interest and if the stay is listed, K&S can move-in on Italian assets.
Thanks for that.
Regarding the other comments, while it would be great if the stay is lifted, it doesn't really matter too much, at least for the moment. Far more important is the progress being made by Navitas, who are clearly very focused and with the right people to do it. And I agree about Navitas getting on with the job, rather than making empty promises
I think we've gone off-piste, I don't think there's a snowflake in Hell's chance of FIG pulling out, so the ECT thing is a total distraction.
I'm sure the FIG is completely aware of the parlous state of their finances, despite some speaking publicly about the magnitude of their reserves.
If FIG pull the plug on SL, so it doesn't go ahead:
- Navitas will have wasted quite a bit of time and money, they'll probably get Shenandoah going before too long, but they'll never find another opportunity like this;
- RKH will have to rely on its OM award + interest and that'll be all;
- The FI will start its inevitable decline to oblivion and it's very likely that one day the Argies will move-in, rename it 'Las Malvinas' and then grab all the abundant oil & gas, which we know is there.
None of the participants can afford to let that happen.
Absolutely, MDP, and that's exactly what eventually could happen if SL isn't developed by RKH/Navitas, more islanders begin to drift away as the economy falters and the islands become a remote and undefended outpost, inviting the Argies to have another go.
Apparently, FIG are in the process of burning through about half their reserves on their new port facility (already running late and over-budget), which the FI optimists believed would be their economic salvation. Then along came COVID and reminded them that they can't just rely on cruise liners and tourists as an economic model.
Fish and squid revenue is OK, but not guaranteed, especially as some species are starting to move to more agreeable waters.
The FI standard of living is OK for those (mainly older islanders) who prefer to live in a nostalgic time warp, but most of those will be gone before long. In the mean time, they complain about their frozen state pensions, because the FIG can't afford to pay them any more. Many younger islanders leave for a variety of reasons, not to return.
But even for those who enjoy FI life, the exisiting infrastructure still needs to be maintained and there just isn't enough money for that, let alone for 21st century improvements, especially once the new port has been paid for.
Most Islanders know that without a serious injection of cash, they're going the same way as some of the more remote Scottish islands. They refuse to borrow and HM Treasury won't help. If SL doesn't happen, even more will leave, as the only reason they've been hanging on will have been switched-off, so they'd better try and make a more secure life somewhere else, with a future.
To put it bluntly, Jeremy Cresswell's comments are un-informed rubbish.