Member Info for Okehurst1

Captain, mentioned yesterday you have fair points.

Without doing a deep dive into science the article below is interesting - look at the date ?
We have had SAR’s in one form or another causing serious issues since the early 2000’s , each cycle the outcome gets worse in terms of affects on humans.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-vaccines-can-drive-pathogens-to-evolve-20180510/

If we look at the expected size of the rapid test market , posted this week $20B p/a rising to $27B p/a over next few years, Omega are in a good space.

For balance of the debate if we take the view IF Colin can’t sell then someone will take out the business who can - private equity(PE) or trade

The business is ideal for PE, load with offshore debt ,low IP , low R&D , specific engineering skills , with sales highly cash generative, one of the largest manufacturers / diagnostic engineers in Europe , everything is in place.

I am giving Colin the benefit of the doubt and believe he will come through but of course until those sales materialise I can’t argue against your point we haven’t sold anything of note the last 18 months.

Nb speculative thoughts … I think we could hear this week in Northern Ireland, if the Data is as good as Mologic say then the share price will start its rerate, just in time for the AGM

‘Restraint: Strigent Regulatory policies

Despite the high demand for POC devices, manufacturers face several regulatory barriers due to multi-layered regulations set by the FDA and laboratory regulations under CLIA which is required for the for the premarket approval of POC testing kits. For the approval of any new POC device in the US, manufacturers must submit performance data to the FDA. This should demonstrate that healthcare professionals and patients can use these devices and obtain results similar to clinical laboratory tests. POC tests intended for point-of-laboratory (POL) testing also require special recognition from the FDA with additional onsite performance data. Such implantation of stringent regulations can become a major factor hindering the market growth’

Contd

Omega was small but is still developing

https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/point-of-care-diagnostic-market-106829185.html

Captain, you make some fair points but I think in terms of longevity Omega as a specialist diagnostics engineer

Omega was a small business in terms of capacity but is now arguably one of Europe’s biggest with its current capacity and is well placed in a market valued at $29B last year & rising to $50B a year by 2025

We don’t need to spend £££ on R&D of biotech just be a very good / trusted diagnostics engineer, its a big and growing market.

Omega was a

Mars, agree

Also interesting how China is decoupling its Tech from the West

https://www.economist.com/business/2021/07/10/china-seems-intent-on-decoupling-its-companies-from-western-markets

Then overnight

https://www.reuters.com/technology/beijing-city-looking-take-didi-under-state-control-bloomberg-news-2021-09-03/

U.K. Government putting £17M into Omega and paying Toyota to install the same shows the desire to support the U.K. Diagnostic industry and decouple from reliance on China - they had to buy Chinese LFT’s as we just didn’t have the infrastructure to produce 000’s Millions a month ( test kits)

Even the most ardent Omega shareholder would agree it’s been a long wait but we have the infrastructure/ political support in place to be one of the biggest diagnostic engineers in Europe

https://twitter.com/tom_the_bomb__/status/1434051183543472129?s=10

Interesting comments / research from Tom

Am guessing here but I wonder if they have the stock, the timing is right in terms of question marks regarding the vaccine effectiveness wearing off after 6 months and it’s just a case of getting as many stockists as possible ?

https://twitter.com/abingdon_health/status/1433750031450902531?s=10

Agree Captain but we have the £374M manufacturing contract to fall back on
It would be amazing if we did though - become the sovereign test , makes so much sense for the DHSC after pumping £17M of kit into Omega

Hence the clinical trial results from NI are so important

Problem no of us know when ?
USA /EU/£374M contract commences
Or
The big one we bag the U.K. Sovereign test as part of the £374M

Any time of the above RNS 7am Monday and we get the rerate

Not too sure Captain

‘CE marking for self-test usage
• We're making real progress in the data submission process (but we can't say too much quite yet!)

#ODX

Personal opinion

Northern Ireland trial results first RNS?
DHSC waiting for same?

Last weeks tweet

https://twitter.com/omegadiagnostic/status/1430540991728062465?s=10

Via Tom , explains it his way

https://twitter.com/tom_the_bomb__/status/1433697673186529355?s=10

I may be missing something on the Biosure web site but can’t see the Home Antibody test on there ?

It’s relevant because there was some debate this test as TWatcher took the view they had secured MHRA approval to be the only Home Use Covid 19 test in the U.K.
This of course reflected on Omega.

Feels like Colin is going on the correct road path ?

Fingers crossed the NI clinical trial results match Mologic / Omega messages of it being the best in the world
They must have an idea of the result by now ?

Also telling that Abingdon have been marketing their spare capacity this week in contrast to Omega.

If the test is 100% accurate up to Ct25 then Omega could get the gig for the complete sovereign test, it makes sense as less hassle for DHSC and if GAD out of the way maybe more business from their £900M contract

The IP is U.K. based and the Government enjoy some Corporation tax, looks good politically as well after all the bad press over Chinese tests?

The cash flow could then fund expansion of manufacturing to maybe 200M tests a year including the £cash required to fund tests through international distributors as we need decent cash flow to fund to that level

Northern Ireland trials are the catalyst to the above

Kahuna,
Wonder if it’s emergency home use authorisation expires end of this month?
Unless it’s on that list with an MHRA number it doesn’t look like it has authority going forward ?
Unless it’s under another name but just distributed by
Flowflex?

But standalone it’s not on the updated list by the looks of things?

Daily testing of contacts not included

U.K. Sovereign Test for that ?

Looking that way

Emergency use update, Innova / Orient Gene only via track and test - until January 2022

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/medical-devices-given-exceptional-use-authorisations-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/list-of-medical-devices-given-exceptional-use-authorisations

Tricky
Thinking Northern Ireland clinical trial, possibly this week RNS on the Data ?

It’s the catalyst in many ways to Visitect antigen becoming a sovereign test, plus no TT of note required.

If the results are good the market may well take a positive view on the above ?

Can’t disagree with your point Scardey..

Technically it’s optional, let’s hope the Government do consider the Tax element of all things equal