Member Info for Okehurst1

The Avacta presentation yesterday was an insight into the LFT a market place today.

It appears that there are cheaper overseas manufacturers of the LFT itself, as such it’s fair to say Omega will be working supplying the U.K. Government direct once they are informed which biotech to use, in the mean time they are making cassettes for them which we know about .

BBI couldn’t meet Avacta’s required costing, Abingdon probably had no choice as they didn’t have a Government contract like Omega and have cut their margin.

Regarding the biotech, unless it picks up the Delta variant it will struggle to be excepted in the worldwide market, hence Avacta taking a pounding until it confirms a clinical trial that it’s test does.

So the issue for Omega is does the Mologic V1 test pick up Delta and to what accuracy / Ct range ?

GAD are manufacturing the Avacta test and we know GAD are part owned by Mologic who are partners with Avacta on the so called V2 biotech.

So unless Mologic produce their own standalone updated biotech that is close to 100% accurate identifying Delta then their V1 test is finished commercially.

Worth remembering the Mologic V1 reagent / buffer had a shelf life of Sept 2021

Putting all this to one side it’s not all bad news for Omega
They will eventually get the nod what biotech to use and they can commence the £374M contract, we should find out next month how much we have been making via manufacturing cassettes for the Government whilst we wait, suggest this will be the interesting number, if it’s the same price as the antibody LFT then it’s 80p gross profit per unit, it’s just how many a month?

In the meantime we may get news in the wider market on who has been successful identifying Delta variant

Not posted on the Board for a while but remain a LTH, I didn’t wish to post anything negative on a stock I held but had frustrations from Big Al’s comments on timescales , lack of delivering from a commercial side and even going back to January on the saliva test not working and BAM’s as well.

However I think Al has learnt from his errors and I think today he tried to let us know that and it doesn’t feel like the ‘Al Show ‘ anymore ,it’s evident he is spreading the load and utilising the skills of his partners and leaving his team to focus on what they do best which is be innovative biotech scientists.

In a perverse way I actually feel more confident after today than in any time since April 20 when I first invested, I don’t need to list all the positives nor the hurdles either, LTH’s know we are moving in the right direction and we can expect to see a number of RNS’s covering below.

Confirmation to identify the Delta variant, home use for Europe, possibly EU sovereign state’s orders, clearance for sales in Asia all on top of commercial sales in U.K./EU, plus Porton Down which was at one time the Elephant in the room and whilst nice to secure we can move on in the meantime elsewhere and hopefully firm a U.K. Government contract eventually by September which would be a welcomed event.

Avacta are moving forward with a CEO who has had to learn the hard way at times but that experience will serve him well and all the stakeholders over the coming years.

Upwards and Onwards for Avacta.

Worrying

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9681613/Study-shows-29-people-died-catching-new-strain-vaccinations.html

Asymptomatic

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9127345/UK-coronavirus-Department-Health-rebranding-professional-use-kit-self-test.html

Good debate ND

Yes I believe self testing asymptomatic has always been the way forward, been in Avacta since April 2020, ODX a wee bit later, not convinced in PCR for mass testing

Avacta have come out with this data of 100% accuracy up to Ct27, it’s going to be interesting to see if it stands up to scrutiny, if it does their tech has the market and we can guess ODX can start the £374M contract.

Let’s hope so.

Auto check - apologies FDA

Innova has basically buffer / reagent / film as the so called biotech , it’s standard tech in China, shop around on Alibaba and you can find it popping up for big quantities via chemists

The Chinese / USA investment bankers made a move and didn’t think they would get caught out with plagiarism, unfortunately for them they didn’t think the FSA would cross reference to pick up a bit of GCSE level exam style copying, they got nicked.

Innova have removed the test off their website being available to buy ,their lawyers will have advised the directors if they have done what the FDA are claiming they need to stop digging

USA law suit against them will be next, I guess the funds will have been moved to a country outside USA control,doubt if Innova will be paying tax in the U.K., the IP will be offshore.

Innova are finished as an entity but the cash will move on.

ND ...not that article

BMJ say it’s ‘not fit for test and release’ this one below

Lots of other stuff out there, independent tests showing 29% etc

Toss of the coin accuracy is where Innova is for self use, I don’t think that’s disputed by the science community
It’s not good enough to stop the spread

I actually don’t think Mologic V1 is good enough and we don’t really know if Avacta is 100%, won’t be long before Deeks, BMJ and others start their our evaluation - nothing wrong with that

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4469

https://richardtice.com/2020/12/letter-to-secretary-of-state-for-health/

Worth a read from last December but the facts have been borne out.

PCR doesn’t work to identify infectious people, but will for up to 62 days ping if you have had Covid.

Innova is 50% accurate at best according to BMJ, pretty useless in controlling the spread

Let’s hope Avacta test is 100% accurate up to Ct27, if it is then it limits the spread of the Covid 19 variants and they can then at least be controlled - 50% accurate is a toss of the coin odds, the data is clear Innova is really pretty useless.

Some big buys going through

Cavendish
Unless there is an agreement on SOA2 then the business is insolvent
Agree the shares could be suspended on or before the 22/07/21
The BOD a will have a small window to try and save the business from insolvency but it’s just if the quote is resumed if a deal is done post this event ?Would the LSE allow ?

Would the FCA prefer Amigo was saved but not a public company? Speculating of course but it’s a possibility

When the Judge said no immediate risk of insolvency he certainly was thinking very short term.

Amigo can still trade without the accounts signed off but the shares would have to be suspended and the BOD confident they can secure an agreed deal - to cover their fiduciary duties.

It’s then would the Plc become a Private Co if it could reach a deal with FCA, in affect would it come back to the market? The LSE could attempt to block.

White knuckle ride now

ODX have to plug away and get live sales contracts wherever on the globe

Would Innova need to make a bid for ODX or Abingdon ?

With potentially £1B to £1.5B plus of surplus cash from the Government they could build a state of the art factory in Wales, no loaned kit, possibly even get a grant, why bother with a takeover it’s just not worth it

Assume it cost them £200M for ODX as a figure, they can have a shiny new factory / automated kit for a fraction of the above and buy whatever biotech they want to use within the LFT

They could even undercut with very low predatory prices to capture the U.K. government market.

Thanks for sharing

‘We are 100% committed to respecting the action that you took to support the Scheme, alongside the other 75,000 or so customers who also voted to support the Scheme. Our focus remains on fighting to find an alternative solution that allows our customers to get the best possible outcome.’

Nothing more to discuss, almost worth an RNS in terms of the BOD’s thought process

Jimmy has some fair points from a moral point of view - commendable

However from a legal position the secured creditors being the bond holders have protection by law, the claimants as unsecured creditors would have to change the rules via their legal action and this would have to be funded.

Assume they could fund and they won - for the benefit of this discussion - that would be the end of securitisation of loans on any assets, the U.K. banking system would go into freefall, it’s just not going to happen.

Good or bad it’s not about morals / ethics at this point for Amigo and it’s stakeholders it’s what how law stands.

The judge has pointed to the solution, we all know what it is.

Jimmy you raise some interesting considerations but think we can agree this is a high profile situation intertwined with Limited liability and secured creditors, it’s a minefield.

The claimants have a claim against Amigo the entity

The secured creditors being the bond holders have priority on the assets being the loan book, without doubt Amigo Administration will be an ‘event ‘ that breaches the loan covenant.

Post administration the loan book gets managed by the Bond holders ,the claimants will stake their claim to the Administrator but there will nothing for them.

What you are suggesting unless I am missing something is not how corporate insolvency works in the U.K.

The claimants would have to ‘join’ and then start a separate action against the Bond holders, that could happen I agree on that point but that’s extremely messy for all parties concerned.

SOA2 is the only way forward

Suggest we could be looking at £ARR valuation on the subscription element of the gross revenue.

That’s the key metric, 24X to 32X ARR is normal in this space, especially once the £ARR passes £20M.

Not too sure on the value of sponsorship but subscription is where this one really takes off in my opinion.

Microsoft bid $12B for a USA omichannel gaming platform
3 weeks ago that had $100M of ARR