Member Info for Okehurst1

Bfd

It’s a pity they didn’t say it was profitable in the RNS and they didn’t exclude, it’s helped push the price to another ATL and there is now no floor until they advise on the terms of the disposal

Think the above is fair comment and ideally the BoD include alongside the TU in September asap

Bfd

I think if it was profitable they would have reported same ?

As such they quote ‘ adjusted EBITDA ‘ they have not included that’s clear

They needed to buy time and not spook the insurance industry and the 15,000 suppliers using Marketplace

Fingers crossed they get PLT away with a decent return

Hi Hex

Thinking if they have a target of £1B GMV on Debs external / internal , retain Sheffield and KM as the premium brand, drive sales of Beauty and bin PLT/Burnley then Dan gets his capital lite business ?

To get to the next level can they sell PLT/Burnley, generate net cash.

Kach

Sorry to see you go, hope your £loss is not material/ life changing to your life.

All the best

Hex,

Depending on disposal of PLT / Burnley on favourable terms to Debs then I think this could be a decent bottom fishing buy

As mentioned the other day, there is basically no compelling reason to buy today, best to sit out and let the disposals play out

I do however think Dan has done well to right size the business in a short space of time with £50M of people costs removed and another £40M ish to follow and again being fair he’s built a business Debs Marketplace with close to £1B of GMV with limited investment of capital, if he can build this to £4B GMV and the rest of the group is profitable then Debs at 13p will look a steal, buts its not a buy just yet for me, I would prefer to pay more but know PLT/ Burnley restructuring costs are sorted / what’s the result of same?

Wonder if Debs are trying to pull a rabbit out of the hat at the interims regarding PLT/ Burnley, along the lines of ‘ we have entered formal negotiations ‘ ?

It’s either that or they report on PLT standalone same time?

As a public company there has to be a level where they can’t not report TU on one part of the group that is obviously loss making and just report on the profitable side, which is basically what they have done ?

Put LSE to one side, their Bankers , Trade Insurance, Suppliers etc

All are in the dark, it’s a strange situation, until they update one way or another there appears no floor to stop the daily drip drip drop

If a trade buyer TUPE’s the staff, takes Burnley plus Stock then Debs could get a £wedge and have no costs in the process plus ditch the PLT losses.

Agree MA could then leverage off that news

Debs is a decent speculative buy post the news, pay more for clarity

Hi Fed

I have kind of assumed worse case on cash as we have no guidance but take your point.

Genuinely think Debs is a buy post PLT/Burnley and I have confidence in Dan but until news of the above it’s back to the sidelines for me

Hex, as always fair analysis off yourself, my view below

for clarity I bought at 14.1p before the results, sold 16p after considerations below, I don’t normally take a quick trade

Personally I think Dan has done a good job and will turn this ship around, but a few things need to click into place for the shares to re rate which I think they will.

It’s difficult as there is little forward guidance but I’ve tried to join the dots

Assume Debs grows at the current trajectory and working on 4% EBITDA profit on GMV then arguably 2026 could generate £40M EBITDA

Appreciate the 4% is a tad crude to get to that number but all things equal it looks about right

I would argue Debs marketplace standalone has a forward £400M to £450M EV for 2026

Problem is PLT is burning cash and the other brands are not covering this loss so the Brokers are just discounting the £175M RCF off the £400M to get a £200M max m/cap today

What’s PLT worth ? Could it be sold alongside Burnley ? Does really only have value to a strategic buyer ? But no one really knows what a trade buyer will pay ? If Debs has no restructuring costs and TUPE applies then that’s a win, anything for Burnley real estate / assets same, PLT the business itself in my book is worth £1 when you take in account of the above / losses

Debs gets cash for Burnley, avoids restructuring costs ,PLT is ditched and Youth Brands / KM profit is then ‘bottom line ‘to add to the £40M from Debs Market place

MA can see this as well, what’s Debs Marketplace worth with £2B or £4B GMV on 4%, I think there is a chance post PlT/Burnley disposal he could pounce if we are still at £200M m/cap

To me Debs is a buy but only after PLT/Burnley sold and we know the numbers, best wait till then even if you have to pay more than the current price

FT

The US has begun implementing new tariffs on small packages from around the world, ending a loophole that has allowed billions of dollars of goods to enter the country duty-free.

President Donald Trump announced earlier this summer that he would eliminate a tariff waiver that allowed goods worth less than $800 to enter the US duty-free. All packages entering the country will now be subject to tariffs regardless of their value.

The levies on low-value goods, introduced on Friday, represent the latest escalation of Trump’s trade war, which has pushed US tariffs to the highest level in decades and rattled trading partners and allies.

The increased tariffs primarily hit online Chinese retailers that ship directly to US consumers, such as Shein and Temu.

Https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cnv7l575lgeo

Just a question of time before U.K. follows ?

Dan is on a roll, Sheffield is highly automated, 1200 jobs sad as it is for the people involved is another £40M cost base removed plus the establishment costs.

Big Mike hiding behind the curtain, will he make a move?

Those juicy tax losses would come in handy, just on £400M the last 2 years alone

Worth pointing out again Dan’s commitment when he took the freebie shares earlier this year, he must have felt confidant as he lumbered himself with a £1M plus income tax bill

Dan looks like he enjoys his food but no free lunch if his turnaround plan doesn’t work, suggest this was as good a sign as that of Carol

Guess the market has to work out can Dan keep growing Debs market place at this pace ? If he can he may be able to say £45M EBITDA forward forecast?

I would argue Debs market place then has 8 to 10X max value

Frasers will be doing the same calcs which I guess is why MA thought Debs plc looked cheap at £400M m/cap but he didn’t foresee how badly PLT was performing

Happens to the best of us egh ?

So could / will MA bid at a forward premium and he gets his hands on Sheffield / Youth brands and by default the Rev B stake on the cheap if he thinks that has a future ?

MA would have to have at least a £500M headline valuation to have a chance and even then management may dig in ?

It would cost him £350M and Frasers balance sheet to fund the £175M RCF

If he is making a move it has to be now or he is locked in and this is a trade out position for him at which point he needs to

reach out to the BoD and they try and start working together which won’t be an easy task

On balance reckon it’s 50 - 50 does he have a pop

Just on Debs market place

EBITDA was just on 4% of GMV - it’s difficult to measure any other way for this example, appreciate it’s a tad crude.

Assume 35% growth as Dan has previously flagged and forward EBITDA for this year is £35M

Personal view

Debs has a £375M EV

Property assets £60M? Burnley / Sheffield / KM and Youth Brands ? Put a value on the above

Nb can’t see PLT being worth much I’ve discounted to £nil for this example, not sure if Burnley ex real estate is worth much?

Could argue the above ex Debs is worth the RCF potentially?

Fair as Sheffield /KM plug the gap above the property ?

Boils down to is what is Debs Marketplace worth ?

Place a multiple on its forward EBITDA ?

Big Mike can squeal as much as he likes but it’s

‘ much to do about nothing ‘

‘ put up or shut up ‘ now for MA

KM looks out of sync with the capital lite model, wonder if they take the ££ ?

Any thoughts ?

Not sure what PLT is worth ? Ditto Burnley?

Sheffield which is highly automated would remain, makes sense