Member Info for Okehurst1

Bring Ashley in from the cold, make it work for all.

What’s worse case from here ?

Could it fall to 10p ? Could the debt restructure happen and it bounces to 20p again if the TU is positive including cost cutting ? It’s possible .

However it’s catching a falling knife situation with Ashley owning 30% he can now control the share price, I would argue if Debs BoD could give him a seat then the stock would be a punt buy as it stops him trading at will.

Hi Hex, hope your well

Thanks for your reply.

As always your comments are well balanced

No longer Boo holder but watching for any opportunity

£125M revolver is not due for payment until October 26 and that’s the main debt to keep an eye on, could Boo just be working on a disposal to provide headroom cash, as such there is a delay to the accounts although they do have until the end of August so it’s not actually a delay ?

They have an NDA in place re the disposal ?

Debt looks manageable if they make a notable disposal ?

Sheffield sale /lease back or Karen Millan or maybe both ?

Youth brands all on Debenhams platform ?

Makes sense? Then it’s all about Debs GMV, gross and net margins ?

Any thoughts ?

Welcome back to the Longs Crowman, do you think THG is flocking to new 52 week highs ?

It could have been worse

The article could have mentioned Moulding spent £2.4B of other peoples money on assets now valued at £330M to create a business that generates £30M just cash

Moulding nicking the Country Club for free but leaving an empty hotel with a £15M loss for THG is just a rounding up calculation on top of a debacle of a 97% fall in the share price and he nicks £22M rent a year and top slices £340M for his private business

Moulding and his Chairman are a disgrace to the London stock market

OSG

Not sure there is a price that Moulding would take for THG without the Ingenuity contract being firmed up ?

Over the next 10 years Moulding gets £3.4B for ingenuity and £220M rent on a straight line basis

That’s some commitment by a new owner ?

If he carves THG out with MA that’s a solution but it’s how long to wait, it does appear they are working together operationally but not as a concert party

Obviously if Moulding is voted off the BoD the game changes especially if he loses the vote on the CLN

If he wins both then it’s game over and a long haul for all of us

The market works stuff out very quickly as such we are hitting all time low with the share price

Stan, not that difficult to turn £2.4B of cash into £300M valuation if your Matt Moulding

He’s a failure

If a share pays a dividend then investors can take a longer term view

Moulding had turned £2B of investors money and added £400M of debt so £2.4B invested to create a business model producing £30M a year of cash, put aside the share price is down 97% in that period

Just over a 1% return on the £2.4B invested in todays money

Shocking performance, ROI

Goldman reckon your close

Rev B is technically insolvent and right up to the limit on its RCF

There might be some notional payment for shareholders but big Mike doesn’t over pay

Notice Ashley offered to buy Boo’s debt over the weekend as well

Wouldn’t be surprised if the same offer comes THG’s way.

No rush off Ashley though as he needs to bed in Rev B, he’s got his feet under the table here, he can make his move when ready

The market has worked all the above out and with no II’s going to buy in with a deranged MM running the show with his Good Lord Chairman having gone AWOL but on £415,000 salary it’s almost like a scene from the movie Downfall as we are left with Frasers waiting their time to pounce

Stan, it’s all about FCF especially with THG who don’t just report normalised bullxxxx EBITDA but they are masters of adjusted EBITDA which is bullxxxx earnings on speed

Frasers can improve the FCF of Beauty with a stroke of the pen by restructuring the balance sheet

Fact is without Whey dropping in price MM can’t really do any further disclosed financial engineering, he just needs to get his CLN over the line to consolidate his control and it’s job done for him whilst awaits Whey to drop to around €800T

Market knows this as such we drip drop daily

Stan, look away as you won’t understand

Beauty generates around £93M EBITDA cash but pays out £55M of this cash to service it’s £400M plus debt pike

on top there is pro rata £13M capex and £14M rent to Moulding

Assume the capex / rent is firm

Suggest Frasers would use their strong balance sheet to only fund the £200M plus net debt at favourable rates, possibly even self funding from the massive free cash they generate

It’s worth pointing out Beauty currently also does the heavy lifting to cover the negative net FCF at Nutrition

Suggest Moulding can’t make his move on Nutrition until Whey drops to €800T as a number, he needs that extra £40M

at that point of time he will be ready to sell to MA and I guess that’s part of their agreement

Until MA/MM are ready to move we go nowhere with the share price, the £numbers above explain why, Whey reducing in price is the catalyst

Stanley struggles with anything complex with numbers other than paste and post so Stan look away now

Rev B close to the edge with its banking facilities , Boo own 30% and Frasers 30% of Boo, throw in Boo can’t fund a rights issue to sort out the Revolver, plus a number of outstanding legal issues

Frasers picking up Rev B looks on the cards

Certainly looks like MM/MA have cosied up, just a question of time until MM sells Beauty to big Mike, maybe once Whey drops 20% ? MM gets his long term contract, Frasers use their balance sheet to mitigate the £55M cost of finance, they won’t require the £400M debt pile structured as it is today, it will be a big saving

Makes sense but could be a while waiting ?

The $64k question I guess

Is MA voting with MM at AGM ? Looks like he will?

Any views ?

MA keeps his stake above the critical 10% for numerous reasons including CGT exemption

We know now there is no official concert party with an imminent capital event

MM/MA have an agreed deal/ partnership what ever that may entail but probably via trading deal

Hence 23.5p

Redacted

And with a stake excess of 10% held in a ltd company there is no CGT on any gain on disposal

* MA will vote with MM

OSG,

It’s either MM/MA have a deal between themselves, which is my view after yesterday with just a single TR1 and MA is shoring up MM as he has Fraser Pay etc secured and it’s a strategic alliance and MA will vote with MA at AGM

Or

They have had a Musk / Elon style bust up this week and MA is going for a stake to try and stop MM converting the CLN

At the moment it looks like the former unless MA goes large with a flurry of TR1’s?

If this was the case MM wins the vote and secures his control ?

Hyzhou

I was hoping for an MM/MA collab but not as you suggest as the last TR1 was 2 months ago.

However with news last night I think your right, yesterdays TR1 means no official concert party and your points below look valid

Assume you are correct and it now looks like you are then it’s expected MA will vote for MM and BoD, MM clears the CLN same time ?

Traders know there is no support from II with Moulding at the wheel