Member Info for Okehurst1

Haha , Moulding sold the family silver to invest in THG

He’s took 50% of Ingenuity for £12.5M

He’s took 24% of THG for £60M including his original shares.

Moulding bagged an £840M bonus from the IPO

Agree he’s all in because of Ingenuity but his problem is if it all goes Pete Tong he’s got so many skeletons he can’t afford the forensic analysis

Ingenuity just doesn’t work commercially,THG has the company attached like a leech taking £360M a year with no transparency that’s why we are £300M m/cap run by a control freak who has destroyed shareholder value, he has to go

NED’s do your job

Hi Ephemeral

Yeah so 55p Beauty but MM buys out Nutrition using the uplift in THG share price, £500M to £600M

but that could be cash / Frasers paper

25p to 30p Nutrition off MM

Ovs it’s just a theory for knock around on this BB but it works tax wise as similar structure as Ingenuity

MM could place a cap on the pool of cash to buy Nutrition and the balance in paper am guessing

Reckon he would get that through 75p to 85p all in

Suggest the NED’s need to bring in forensic accountants to conduct a full review, they are as exposed as anyone here

Magnum, agree

MM’s fan boys trying to tell us trust MM that the £360M he pays from THG to Ingenuity a year were he owns 50% is a true transparent transaction and the BoD hold his feet to the fire even though they missed off the £79M of costs not explained in the demerger document :-)

Good share 1P as always

Think the Takeover panel rules are different in U.K. ?

Frasers being a case in point, MA has a crazy 74% of the shares, helped by a whitewash when conducting share buy backs ?

Just on Beauty

If Beauty can hit 8% EBITDA (7.2% now ?) which is doable, on £1.3B Rev, call it £100M EBITDA

Assume the £22M rent and £10M capex is fixed that’s £70M cash before cost of finance

THG has a shot balance sheet so in affect it pays £54M on £200M net debt, Frasers could absorb into its balance sheet and maybe underwrite the FCF , support working capital and remove the £400M debt, it’s not a free lunch for Frasers but they could bring the next cost down to £20M as a number?

As such the FCF even with Ingenuity would be £50M, there is an argument the £850M plus debt £1B EV take out price works for Frasers and MM keeps his ingenuity contract for X years and Frasers take the associated tax losses ?

The numbers fit and it looks tax efficient but it’s just a theory could be well out

Hi OSG

It’s fair comment and unless MA has had a personality transplant he can’t be happy with THG share price performance

He could have secured Frasers some inter company trading though like Fraser Pay or an expansion of the current business they conduct ?

He’s certainly not been buying more so something has stopped him in his tracks, as mentioned it could be he has bridged the tax favourable 10% level ?

Or he thinks this goes lower or MM has out played him

with the CLN ?

Or they are a concert party

Take your pick really, not of us know which of course ?

Last point, MA can’t trust MM, no one can, if they have a deal

if MA is making a move it makes sense he does so before the AGM, because after that MM is in cruise control

As it stands MM will have 24% equity

He could top up to 30%

Employee trust and Whale insiders within Ingenuity?

MM controls the BoD, we won’t even be told there was interest if it doesn’t suite them ?

Who would make a hostile Bid above the BoD without the books being opened up? Especially with £400M plus of debt

It’s a minefield

Not saying if the price was right MM wouldn’t sell if Ingenuity retained its THG contracts but realistically MM is no hurry, debt sorted till 2029, he controls everything from Ingenuity, THG , BoD, debt etc

He’s played it well

We have a few weeks to go to see if MA makes a move, with or without MM on board, it’s still a long shot though

Thanks 1P

No prob 1p, would we still retain 250 status?

What’s your view as we stand today ?

1P , interesting,does that include the MM CLN shares ? 1.5B ?

And they ain’t converted yet? Am I missing something ?

My thoughts

Ingenuity are charging THG £12 plus to deliver a parcel

and THG are paying rent on the space (£22M) and THG pay the cost of capital to buy / finance the stock (£400M plus debt and £50M annual interest ) as such THG margins are the lowest of reported peer groups

However THG can deliver a bag of whey or lipstick quickly

What’s the value in delivering the lipstick straight away compared to maybe a 3rd party solution but it takes 2 days but costs less ? Could that parcel be £6 on average pro rata ?

THG margin is so much less than their competitors who don’t have the black hole of Ingenuity to support, think we can say there is a cheaper way ?

As Ingenuity is probably insolvent without THG as it only has £178M of external revenue MM can’t let THG find a cheaper supplier he needs THG to pay the £340M a year plus £22M rent

Come the AGM he will control 24% he could increase to 30% at any time, then we have the Employee Trust and his Close Whales, job done for MM, he’s got control back

If Ashley doesn’t strike a deal and was just helping MM out because of whatever other joint trade they do then it’s a bottom draw job for the shares and hope Whey drops in price and MM feels generous with share buy backs / dividends but that’s at least 12 months off

MM can’t sell Beauty or Nutrition without the buyers paying less than the true value in lieu of having to subsidise Ingenuity for X amount of years, what ever the cost of the 3rd party difference by the amount of those years

To boot the City won’t touch THG with a barge pole as the BoD are a disgrace and MM’s deranged rants about them

That’s where we stand today

Top post THG, well laid out

Personally I think the Demerger Doc borders on misrepresentation to shareholders, we can only hope larger shareholders attempt to bring the NED’s to book first

To protect their position the NED’s should suspend MM and his executive powers and bring in forensic accountants, these are material numbers that have been purposely not disclosed to the market

Ovs not relative as no gain as yet

Not sure if Frasers investment in THG is 100% SSE applicable but if it is then as their stake is over 10% there is no tax on gain disposal

Assume it may be? Strange that we have had no further TR1’s

Got banned agree

Share ideas

We all know there is value here but MM is playing ‘ house ‘ and is in charge of the roulette table and as a result he’s one step ahead all the time

He won’t take THG whole, he can’t as it comes with £400M plus of debt, he can’t make that work and fund a buy out, the numbers don’t stack but it does work if he can sell Beauty and use the bump in the share price by converting his 185M shares he bought at 32p to fund buying out Nutrition

The numbers add up to do that, it won’t be on the cheap cheap but could realistically be 70p to the £1

It may not be his plan of course but it’s long haul to 70p in its current guise and at the whim of the Whey commodity market

Unfortunately Moulding doing the ‘ Oasis ‘ video and the shananagins below don’t help sentiment to attract II’s

Moulding had a chance to redeem himself but it’s the same old same old

Why didn’t he disclose his plan to refi the debt just weeks after the demerger and issue himself 185M shares at an ATL at the same time or the empty £15M crap hotel left behind in THZg but the profitable health club taken by himself or disclose FCF £44M in the demerger document but the finalised accounts show different ?

Any ideas ?

MA taking Beauty is our best bet for a bounce but that’s not a given only a theory

It’s the way MM left the £600M debt pile behind at THG knowing he would restructure with him taking 15% equity in THG on the the back of his plan, also nicking the profitable Health Club for himself but leaving the empty Hotel and £15M hit with THG shareholders

Throw in £22M rent for housing THG goods then top slicing 20% off the top of THG

Somehow he’s also stopped MA buying more shares and spoiling his party, he’s clever .

It’s Mouldings way, he plays the zero sum game, I blame the BoD especially the NED’s, there is no accountability

There are no buyers of THG shares and no 3rd party bidder will take THG with the poison pill of Ingenuity and MM weeks away from full control, he’s played this smart at the expense of the shareholder

Think your post sums up the situation Pearls

Once MM gets his CLN approved at the AGM it’s game over for any Bids he got full control alongside the employee shares

Unless MA makes a dash for 30% before then and tries to block the CLN but that looks highly unlikely as we have had no TR1 in a month

So it’s either MM/ MA have joined and we get good news potentially on a break up or it’s put the shares in a draw and hope Whey drops in price