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The market is saying Moulding is Uninvestable, he’s a total failure as a CEO of public company

Harsh to say but THG shareholders have to take the current pain or sell as we head to 24p and then the drop out of the 250 and it could be 20p but the large shareholders who are down 95% plus could vote against Moulding, it’s their last chance, if we get him out this rockets

There are no big buyers so the large holders are in an illiquid market so drop out the 250 and he wins the AGM vote, there will be no net buyers just traders, it could go to 20p or lower, he has to be stopped, it’s a no brainer

APN similar margin 29%

War Paint. 24%

THG 6%

Ingenuity / Mouldy take 20% plus £22M rent

It’s not complicated even for Stanley

Moulding owns 50% of Ingenuity, he’s de facto there as well

Come on Mezza did you watch the latest webinar

One man runs the show, he’s defecto controller

the two executives are at best MD’s that’s it

Rev B has £118M of liabilities and lost £10M over 26 weeks in last update, Moulding put $ into this one as well

God help the shareholders of Rev B , the clown show of Iain Mc now involved, all they need next is the Candyman to saying he’s bidding and the circus continues

No one buying the company it’s an asset sale

Moulding is CEO of Ingenuity, CEO of THG, defacto CEO of Beauty and defacto CEO of Nutrition

That’s 4 entities/ companies each with their own commercial targets but the same person has 4 Hats on talking negotiating to himself?

Don’t think anyone thought post demerger it would end up at this level of control by one person but Moulding has no choice otherwise the pack of cards collapses for him

He has to be voted out

Stanley, look away, below is too much for you, it’s why APN is valued almost the same as THG

Https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=whey

Ovs the Algo’s have multiple data nodes to review including below

Sweet Whey still stubbornly can’t get below €1000

Nutrition needs a 20% drop to achieve £40M additional cash which is the bunce

Assume £550M Rev and £30M plus EBITDA, less pro rata rent £7M, Capex £10M , pro rata cost of capital ? £18M ?

We can say Nutrition at very best is washing its face at operational level and provides no net free cash, it may possibly be a drain on group cash, THG need Whey dropping in price and ideally getting down to €800

It’s bye the bye but this is were the Ingenuity 20% fixed cost and £22M fixed rent hurts THG, the pain should be shared and it’ obviously not

So Beauty on £1.3B @ 7% plus can knock out £93M cash less

£10M capex , £15M rent, cost of capital £36M

all in ?

Group Free cash ? £30M plus without Whey dropping to €800

The market again has worked this out and THG sits at current 12X FCF today which looks about right

Suggest the above is where THG is today, bring in the extra £40M and the optics change

Imagine going to the open market in transparent process

We will fund our stock and hand it you so you don’t have any risk

You can top slice 20% of everything that is sold

You get paid whatever

We will pay you £22M a year for the space our stock uses

It’s worth £360M a year

Ohh and we can do a 5 to 10 year deal worth maybe £3.6Billion

Moulding did the above with himself, fact .

Vote them off

100, there is no support for the share price, none.

MM has to go, he’s the obstacle, he should have resigned as CEO of THG post demerger

New BoD gets a grip of the £360M he slices off and bring in forensic accountants/ investigators to run through the procurement process that Moulding as CEO of THG did with himself as Moulding CEO of Ingenuity.

You couldn’t make this stuff up that it’s happening as a publicly quoted company, it’s yet another mark against the London Stock Exchange

100

Power of the pen …

vote the grifters off the BoD

Vote down the CLN

The numbers don’t stack for Selkirk to fund Nutrition, how do they finance ? It was a scheme forged when THG was 65p last Autumn and part of the demerger master plan and from their point of view it made sense

£1.3B of Beauty is left behind with at the time with £600M of debt or £400M, we can guess they would have had a fund raise as standalone or used some of the money from the sale of Nutrition to bring down to £300M ? It was a way to sort the balance sheet

There is more chance of the Tooth Fairy buying Nutrition than Selkirk as it stands today that’s why we are at an ATL

Suggest ..

MM and his rainmaker Iain Mc had their plan A alongside the long term holders who back MM

Demerge Ingenuity, raise £££, leave the debt with THG and lock in £22M rent and top slice the 20% to plug the black hole of Ingenuity

The problem was how to protect the £360M they top slice ?

So they go forth and set up Selkirk in advance, they raise £12M, their Chairman is a major private equity player, they think Whey prices will drop / interest rates drop and Nutrient will churn £55M to £60M cash, they can then cut a deal with THG to buy same and they protect the 20% and have an asset they can grow and they leave the £400M debt behind in THG, it’s a neat deal for them, they think.

Problem was Whey didn’t drop and long term debt goes up Nutrition is not producing enough FCF as a result, as such they couldn’t finance the deal, how could they if debt was costing 8% to 10% and Nutrition has to pay £7M rent , £5M capex , finance could be £60M on £600M so £72M vs £35M EBITDA

It just doesn’t work, the market worked that out and Iain Mc and MM lose even more credibility acting like spivs ,as such we are at an ATL with no support

MM pulls off his next move with the CLN / AGM and it’s game over until whey prices / long term rates drop and shareholders get the next phase of his plan to enrich himself at everyone else's expensive, MM plays a zero sum game

1P happy with the first 2 trips here, made $, posted when in or or out

Dropped a clanger this time though (37p average) Moulding has taken everyone down who was Long and to be fair the shorts were super smart

it’s a bottom draw job for me if Moulding wins the AGM as I do think there is value here but no idea how that plays out once he has his 24% and employee trust behind him

Pearls, other than the odd Moulding fan boy on here who still things he an amazing businessman and not a grifter, suggest most are THG employees ,reckon most PI’s will vote the Directors out for re selection and vote down the CLN giving Moulding control

It’s a fact the larger holders have supported Moulding / GLA last few years but many of them appear to have cut the cord at the demerger and can’t be happy being 97% to an ATL ?

If Moulding wins the AGM us PI’s have to make the call sell or put in the bottom draw, we have this last chance the large holders have had enough of him.

Moulding succeeds he just milks THG to keep his failed business model being Ingenuity afloat, would be amazed if he did win?

100, I would take MA or anyone with a decent track record over MM any day

CEO’s are in the results game, let’s look at Mouldings vs Ashley

£10,000 invested into THG at IPO is now worth just £540

£10,000 invested into Frasers same date? £23,000 today

Moulding has been a total disaster running a public company, that’s just fact, if he loses the AGM vote someone far more competent can be found to run the business, Moulding has to go.

Fair summary Monty

The issue for shareholders ex the MM cult, if he gets the CLN over the line at the AGM then MA even going to 20% is going to struggle to displace him

There is one shot left for shareholders to vote out the directors up for re selection, that doesn’t look good on the NED’s CV and of course hopefully Moulding is one of them plus of course vote down the CLN, that’s crucial, that goes through it’s game over in terms of control, MM has won

It’s bottom draw for the shares at that point at this level

Yeah, very good post Pearls

There is still the odd MM fan boy here and other than the weird poster Moniman /Stan who are the same person ,who will never get it as it’s too complicated ,suggest everyone else can agree with your analysis

Hi 101

Notice he said an army of small investors followed him into Ingenuity

We know most of the big holders didn’t take up their allocation and the share price is ATL and 97% down and MM has played them all for fools in the process but they now have this one last chance to remove him, if he gets control via the CLN it’s game over

MM is craftier than all of them so wouldn’t bet against him, MA’s 11% could just well swing behind MM we just don’t know on that one

Don’t forget MM plays a zero sum game on he wins big