Member Info for Okehurst1

Bfd, fair comment, if Burnley / PLT secure the numbers below

…. Or he sits back and trades this one out but that’s going to take time

Thanks Bfd

So if they did sell the building ex closure costs they could net

£90M to £85M from Burnley ? Helpful insight

Then it’s anyone’s guess what they get for PLT but they could in theory almost eradicate the RCF give or take .., maybe

Debenhams

Sheffield

KM

Youth brands

All for £175M today

Point being, Ashley must have an idea on the above, thinking he must be looking at this one and he weighs up his options after the AGM, if he is going to move it has to be in the window whilst the market awaits disposal news ?

Lots of if

Bfd

Any idea if they have a secured loan just against Burnley ?

ie a mortgage ? If there is what’s the FCF from a disposal ?

What’s your view ?

FED, fair summary, let’s hope they exit Burnley at £nil net cost that’s a result

Bfd, it’s could well be but at least you can measure the risk at that point from a new money prospective

It’s the known unknowns to take that risk today

Ashley gets past the AGM and he may show his hand if it’s a close vote or goes against the BoD , PLT/Burnley sorted even the deminimus goes and Boo could be at steal at £180M but it could drop another 30% in the meantime, one for the brave today and keep an eye on

I think FED has a fair point but it’s just about timing ?

Personally I don’t think Debs is a ‘ buy ‘ today but it could be a great buy ‘ tomorrow ‘

Wait until the dust settles and PLT is valued by the market, the cost of closing Burnley is firmed and the FCF at that point is firmed, there is no compelling reason to buy at the moment

as too much risk today, there is a chance Frasers bid after the AGM but that’s not nailed on.

Personally I think Dan just needs time, he’s going in the right direction but I don’t want to risk any capital just in case, pay more when we know the above and it looks decent

Adder,

Put aside Dan’s remuneration which is mainly in shares that lumbers him with a big income tax bill but he’s got ‘ paper’ in lieu?”, but it’s still a massive award

Guess the man is chocker trying to turn this one around, he’s best getting on with Job in hand and leave the Chair to sort IR

Mentioned last week

‘ selling ‘ Burnley for £1 is a good outcome if TUPE applies but not sure who would buy ?

It’s not at the same level of automation as Sheffield

PLT the website is worth something but if the above closure goes ahead then there will be a cost implication

Then Debs need the £ to fund stock not just the Youth Brands but KM as well

Ideally sell KM and the youth brands but post PLT disposal so it’s not a fire sale, IF possible tie in the sales with a supply contract using Sheffield and Debs Market place is possible ?

Beginning to think at this level Ashley may make a move to gain control, he awaits the conclusion of the AGM especially around remuneration and see’s how the wind is blowing , if he is going to go he goes next month or so

Until the market knows the PLT outcome it’s more of the same.

Assume PLT goes for something like book even if it’s just the website ?

Burnley has to go, a buyer would know this, maybe there is a nominal value but if we work on £1 and no restructuring costs then any upside is a bonus as it’s going to be expensive to downsizing the staff

KM value ? Place 10X EBITDA as a starter for 10

If we work on best worst case is debt repaid and no restructuring costs that’s a win and half for Debs

Debs market place / Sheffield are two decent assets to retain and they can then consider disposals of the other brands are right price and link in contracts to sell using marketplace / utilise Sheffield

Good post as usual Hex, agree with gist

My caveat’s, I can’t see PLT worth more than book value and Burnley is £1 with a TUPE deal, that’s a good deal for Debs

Will they get that ? No idea

One other avenue to wipe out debt is to sell KM,? That and a combo of above and KM then they could deliver that goal ?

I agree with SCB, PLT has been a car crash, none of us know the true loss here hence the share price reflects the uncertainty

Just on Frasers, they have well been sucker punched and as such they have gone quiet, it’s actually sobering to think MA couldn’t see all this well in advance with all the resources he enjoys and his is it for us little PI’s to make $$

My view … it’s all about what they can get for PLT/ Burnley and maybe even KM as it sits outside stock/ capex lite model

run balance of brands on Debs Marketplace until they are sold

Wishful thinking but IF the above asset sales could wipe out debt or as near as possible and they end up with Deb Market place, highly automated Sheffield site which manages ex brand sales / Debs Marketplace and develop Debs Beauty and no group serviceable debt

They just need PLT off the books and advise the market of the correct EBITDA profit until then Debs drifts

It suits MA to see the share price drift daily, maybe he’s hoping it will wake up the larger shareholders on their voting intentions at the AGM

If MA gets his way with the vote suggest this could turn around quick otherwise it’s a wait until news on the disposals

What do you think Oceon? I have no idea tbh ?

Hex, suggest it’s all about cash at this point with a £200M m/cap and £175M RCF

Helicopter view

Let’s hope Devs gets a material wedge for PLT / Burnley, I’ve got no idea what that is but hope they do, maybe flog KM, who knows they may be able to bring the RCF right down, in affect flog any web site that can produce a few quid at the right price and get debt to zero

They focus on Debs Marketplace, they have Sheffield and they offer this automated site for all marketplace customers who could utilise same, capex / cash lite business, generate cash grow the brand and slowly expand the Debenhams Beauty arm

If Debs can square the RCF then £200M m/cap will be a steal.

Not defending the quantum here

Dan has to pay income tax upfront at 45% so he receives paper in Boo then pays 45% in cash , so it’s a punt by him on himself

If he fails he has paid out big $ to the tax man, that’s where the skin in the game comes in

So agree though it’s a massive number / incentive

If Debs goes

SCB agree it’s a nuts number but it’s not a free lunch just yet for Dan

The quirk of income tax on a benefit means he has to find big £ cash to pay the tax on the shares

At least he’s got some skin the game

Tbf to Dan he’s took a big wedge in shares but he ends up with a massive income tax bill day 1, something like £1.2M cash / tax on the shares on the last tranche of shares if remember correctly

He’s putting some skin in the game as he only makes $ if he gets to sell down the road put he pays the income tax upfront

SCB, your right it has to go, would be handy if there was no restructuring costs and TUPE applied put aside the workforce retain a job

Guess that’s a long shot as it may just be PLT website that is sold