Member Info for Okehurst1

Mindful of putting the boot in on Biosure as they are a small business having a go but it’s worth sharing on the BB as it’s relevant to Omega

- Only have 11no employees
- £32k in the bank
- Confirmation of accounts late to companies house
- Wholesalers
- No R@D
- Shareholder Capital £1400
- Shareholder funds £300k
- Net liabilities £750K

Really do have to question have Abingdon done their Due Dilugence here ?
TW did some good research in a possible loop hole via Northern Ireland , but looking at this business with 11 staff
no balance sheet, confirmation of accounts late, we have to say they do look a bit dodge.

I can’t send the historic accounts - firewall
But Biosure accounts are late - red flag
Nb not a good sign when accounts are late, directors have fiduciary duties

U.K. Government can’t half pick their partners

They are basically a wholesaler not a biotech business
No R&D

Must have bought the biotech in, we can only guess where?
- Alibaba possibly

Maybe they have found a loop hole around home use via Northern Ireland but they are looking a bit dodgy and no serious balance sheet

https://suite.endole.co.uk/insight/company/07722711-biosure-uk-limited

Thanks TW

Some margin on the Biosure test @ £32 a pop
Remove VAT
Distributors usual 30%?

£18 in it for Abingdon

TW

Forgot to ask

Any difference in the price of Biosure & RTC 19 ?

Morning TW

Excellent research, very helpful .

Thanks for sharing

I particularly like this sentence;

The intention is to validate more sustainable and easier-to-use lateral flow devices that have improved sensitivity’

We know the Mologic test beats the Chinese tests hands down, what we don’t know is Mologic V5 biotech even better ? Mologic seem to think it is, if we can see 100% up to Ct25 then I think we will land the gig, if we see same up to Ct27 then it’s up there with the best in the world.

Thanks Comp good find re - good riddance to Innova by the looks of things

Ties in with this update today off the Government

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/lateral-flow-validation-prioritisation-criteria-for-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens

Published 8 February 2021
Last updated 26 August 2021 - hide all updates
26 August 2021
Updated selection criteria for validation of lateral flow devices to reduce the number of lateral flow devices for validation and to better align validation criteria with the strategic direction of the mass testing programme. The intention is to validate more sustainable and easier-to-use lateral flow devices that have improved sensitivity.
6 April 2021
Updates to the self-testing section with links to more detail on the CE mark, UKCA mark and MHRA exemptions from medical devices regulations.
5 March 2021
Update on sample types required for validation of lateral flow devices.
8 February 2021
First publish

It’s lining up well for Omega, let’s see the Ulster trial results which should be due any day and hopefully we provide the complete Antigen test to DHSC

Looks like we are consolidating and may move to 55p today / tomorrow ready for the inbound news hopefully next week - here’s hoping

Know it’s a grey science but thought this is an interesting TA Chart - thanks to Noel

https://twitter.com/borg74/status/1430529998474162178?s=10

TW, anything for news on the business is helpful - any data points

Who knows Gregg may take the job if he likes what he sees / the offer

Regulator

Gregg did mention he was looking at a potential job with Omega a few weeks ago

‘More staff wanted at Littleport (before they move to Cambridge) as I have been approached about a Quality Systems role.
I was at the site on Monday as I have done one of their allergy tests and decided to return it in person as I live nearby…..

Hi Gregg, appreciated by us all on here

How big is the current lab and ditto the new one ?
Same staff numbers current to new ?
What service are we providing ? Are we busy ? Who is the customer ?

Back in January this year Omega released an RNS re their in-house lab services

‘Omega (AIM: ODX), the medical diagnostics company focused on CD4, infectious diseases and food intolerance, announces that it has launched the Mologic ELISA1 antibody test for COVID-19 through its in-house testing laboratory service in Littleport, Cambridgeshire’

We know they are moving from Littleport to larger Laboratory, it will be interesting to see what sales growth we are enjoying in this market ? - we have to assume sales are expanding to fund the growth?

The same applies to the head count growth / 27,000 sq/ft facility in Ava and the disclosure we are manufacturing cassettes for the others via the Government.

Then the tweet yesterday

‘It's been a quiet few weeks for us on Twitter, but our social media downtime is in stark contrast to the ongoing work at our Alva HQ!
Basically, we've been BUSY! ?? ‘

Omega’s latest updated showed the cash balance had hardly moved after all this investment so they must be generating sales to cover costs / expansion and also we can assume their own debtors ledger

We will find out the detail in due course but some indication would be helpful.

TW, good bit of research, thanks for sharing

Hi Comp

It’s the diagnostic engineering / expertise, it really is a skilled industry,with not many players hence Omega are one of the largest in Europe

The LFT / diagnostic market is expected to grow to $7B per annum within 4 years

There is a wall of cash buying up U.K. engineers at the moment , driven by PE ( Private equity )

PE can just load with debt , place the debt offshore, Omega is an ideal target for them - perfect target, the IP is the engineering skills , no need to reinvest in future IP it’s a cash cow industry once those contracts are secured, plus your not paying silly money for staff - put aside BOD jokes

Just on the 100M tests per annum we either believe DHSC comes off ditto EU/ USA or not , am long so I think it will
Anyone thinks it won’t then best to sell into this rally.

Agree Abingdon as well will be a target, their m/cap is closing in on Omega’s , both are looking dirt cheap even after Abingdons 125% jump this week

Agree not without risk going long on Omega but I think the downside is baked in for the time being, sign off the £374M contract and enjoy a serious rerate, EU , USA home sales and they will use some of the cash generated to go again and increase capacity, you can see that coming.

Omega is a steal at £95M m/cap

Comp, £8M a year gross , all helps , not to be sniffed at

£18M annual revenue in China, probably worth 6 X ARR at least

I can’t see Omega staying independent that long, they sell the 100M a year LFT’s , generating £400M a year , 50% gross
they will be taken out - not that many quality diagnostics engineers in Europe who have the experience/ expertise and to be fair Omega are well respected, be that the Chinese CP, Mologic , DHSC etc

LFT world wide market expected to be some crazy number like $7B or something within 48 months

Further Tweet confirming annual revenue targets

Dom (below) makes a fair point. We weren't clear enough re: 4??.

So to clarify:

4?? VISITECT®? CD4

• We expect to sell 4m-6m tests *per annum* in the next 3-5 years, equating to a £12m-£18m *annual* revenue opportunity

#ODX
twitter.com/DomPosen/statu…

From today’s Tweets
Think we can say this has to be the Northern Ireland trial
Omega clear this then they supply the complete Home Use
Antigen test in the U.K. for DHSC ? Makes sense.

We know stage 1 of the trial is complete, they may even have an idea of the results on stage 2 - it’s binary on 120no people

A reasonably bullish statement.

This is the exciting one, provide the complete Home Antigen test U.K. , USA, European market.

That’s their 100M capacity eaten up and £400M annual revenue at least

?? CE marking for self-test usage
• We're making real progress in the data submission process (but we can't say too much quite yet!)

#ODX

Nb I think this will be our next RNS - test results

TW, the Government contract was always LFT only ex biotech - that was always stipulated

It doesn’t look like biotech has been chosen as yet by DHSC, no financial consideration by Omega, DHSC paying for that element.

Which brings us back to the current Northern Ireland trials, it was telling Omega have not even mentioned what is a very important clinical trial on their Antigen test.

Suggest DHSC are waiting to see these results, IF the Mologic biotech passes their benchmark there is a good chance Omega will churn out their current antigen test with possibly Mologics V5 buffer/ reagent - which will be what is being used in NI now, targeting both N & S protein spikes