Member Info for Okehurst1

Hi Rock

Agree that can happens as well, point bring Ashley uses CFD’s to move the price down but he stays within the percentage disclosure,Market Makers are comfortable picking up shares / holding, knowing there is a price a broker will take on the offer but there is nothing in writing, Ashley closes the CFD / picks up the shares and he has the voting rights

This has been his MO at numerous Plc’s

Repeat / Rinse but he doesn’t over pay

Goes without saying the pack of cards collapses for MM if Ashley can unlock the £4B supply contract, Ingenuity is insolvent with just £170M of revenue.

MM could go into the market and try and pick up stock to bolster his position but he has a smaller window to maybe end of Feb due to closed window, could explain why THG have not put out a forecast for 2025?

Guessing the above but don’t think there is much debate that MM parking his tank is not a friendly move, just look at his track record, he’s done multiple trades like discussed

Good point Steve

Boo traded 29p to 39/ 40p whilst he accumulated

He won’t over pay and he has the park to himself until THG join the FTSE 250

The thing is am not sure that matters to us little PI’s, personal view this makes MM accelerate his next move, it’s crucial for him, he can’t afford the risk of big Mike bagging 20% maybe even more and calling an EGM, I doubt MM could survive that?

Ashley takes control of the BoD and gets his lawyers all over that £4B supply contract to Ingenuity, it’s a massive number.

Just look at Boo if you don’t think the above couldn’t happen, it’s been a war zone

Anyone who has seen how Ashley built his stakes in ASOS/ Boo will see the same patterns

Any Macro news Market Makers push the price down after disposing of their holdings to their ‘ friendly ‘ broker being all all the shares they accumulated over the previous few days , as per Friday which caused a spike

Today try and squeeze out any weak holders, long / short traders jump on board and we end up with Market Makers loading up then sell up to Ashley’s broker

Repeat / Rinse until he passes the percentage that triggers an RNS

He uses CFD’s as well, Mike is a top trader

Steve

Tend not to respond when you go into Bot mode but this is market makers moving THG down to collect stock for a buyer

Watch and see this week

Big Mike keeps adding / removing liquidity to secure what he can before FTSE 250 listing

Steve’s motto

‘Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results’

Just musings Yorek.

Ashley has been generating £600M cash a year in Frasers and making big bets using that cash for a number of years, I had no idea how many restructurings until I read the Boo defence document

It’s the £400M a year Ingenuity enjoys what is it for 10 years ?

Not saying Ashley can break it but he must have his sights on that £4B it is a big number

How Ashley has gone at Boo ,he’s like the Terminator he won’t stop, it must be a concern to MM

Few thoughts

Look at the £300,000 UT buy and the gross value over the day, it’s classic Ashley

Market Makers working their magic to squeeze every weak hand, then they sell on as per the instruction buy price off the broker , whatever that is including their margin

They do daily but have the odd day off …. Then boom, they breach the percentage disclosure, RNS out

Rinse / repeat whilst they build that stake, we have support 39/40 they may try and push it down but it will spring back up a few pence until Ashley’s brokers can’t get the lower price range, then they tweak up, squeeze out the next layer of weak hands

Ashley is tight on time so needs this wrapped up before the trackers move in

Nightmare situation for MM / Ingenuity whales, Ashley will have his eye on that £400M a year contract, if he can get control of THG he may try and break as it’s a massive £.Number , Ingenuity is then bust and he can swoop in on the cheap

That’s his MO, if he can get away with it, his right hand man is an insolvency specialist .

The Hotels / health club where just leases, MM nicked the freehold’s years ago and if I remember correctly especially with the Hotels then THG as a tenant refurbished

Alongside City AM / a whole raft of failed websites like the Bike store / Coggles , near £300M of lease liability and don’t forget Kong they are all gone and good riddance

Anyone who has owned shares in a Plc that Ashley is building a stake observes ‘ patterns ‘

Ashley’s brokers keep just under the next disclosable percentage, they use CFD’s to leverage trades, it appears to drive the price down and to scare weak hands to sell, market makers accumulate then sell onto Ashley’s broker at the target price, they repeat rinse as they release an RNS as the percentage increase is bridged

Worth noting Market Makers don’t carry risk they just make a market but if a trusted Broker gives the nod they may be interested to buy at XXp ,their risk is then mitigated and they know they will have a ready buyer

The little PI with weak hands gets hoovered up

Problem for Ashley in THG is the tight free float and of course THG has no larger scale passive fund involvement until it enters the FTSE 250 so he has to move now before they go on the Offer as well

Steve

The game has changed …

Few thoughts

Ingenuity only has £160M external revenue with a 7% ish EBITDA margin of gross profit and a cash burn of what £70M p/a

It’s bust without THG Remain handing over £400M a year, for

£10M Big Mike now has a view of Ingenuity on the inside, it’s been a smart move

MM & Ingenuity shareholders will potentially have a big problem if Mike can bag himself a big enough stake in THG to be a big enough problem to try and become the CEO or at least control the BoD - now that Boo repelled him

So the £10M gets him a view of Ingenuity, he makes a punt in THG to see how far he can go stake wise, if he gets to 20% can he kick out MM / the useless GL ? But he needed to move before the 250 trackers buy in

Once he has control of THG Bod he then tries to unravel the £400M a year THG pays MM, if he can do that the pack of cards collapse for MM

For MM this is sleepless nights stuff now, he needs to pull a rabbit out of the bag quick, serious stuff for him and Ingenuity shareholders

For us PI’s longs sit back / chill, money to made

Long here Steve, am not good enough to trade like yourself

Nibbling away picking up stock, disciplined to wait for next stage of the latest saga of THG, it really is the gift that keeps giving, thanks to you and other short /long traders you have helped me get back in yet again at low 40 average, I salute you sir.

You have to feel for any PI’s who bottled it last week as Steve /others bombarded this BB with negativity.

The price of whey drops just 25% from a 100% jump in last 12 months and THG bags £40M of bottom line cash as it makes up such a chunk of the gross input cost to Nutrition.

Nutrition would be closing in on an FCF + number that equals the total revenue(£90M) of APN which is valued at £350M

Good points OSG

Big Mike doesn’t mess about and we know from his MO he will want 15% to 20% if he can get it that is before the trackers move in.

The Sub .5% Shorts now have a problem today, Shaws especially.

Suggest THG making the FTSE 250 will be a done deal just on technicalities alone after Mikes RNS and it’s now put pressure on MM / cronies to sort the debt out and split away Nutrition whatever their plan is?

Anyone on this BB not seen how Big Mike works check out Boo RNS’s, he’s like the Terminator, he doesn’t stop

He’s made his move before the Trackers / Passive Funds require their 7% and we can can guess his brokers have done the rounds buying up whatever they could, Qube got wind and bailed, DE Shaw didn’t get the memo, those boys and other sub .5% will be spooked

Doesn’t mean Ashley over pays or will make a full Bid as he picks up the Offer but it’s the beginning of the end for MM and his dodgy Chairman, he ain’t scared to call EGM’s.

This could speed up a financial restructuring of the THG debt and whatever plan MM had in mind now that Big Mike has parked his tank on the lawn

another way to look at it?

suggest the ii short are always the smartest in the room, they have looked at the car wreck of nutrition last year, they know the input cost of whey is 33% to 30% of thg’s variable cost

whey has gone up 100% as mm said but that’s only happened twice in 13 years or something, if whey falls 25% then apparently that’s £40m of extra cash to thg

if we run that ourselves on the back of the *** paper it looks about right

put aside thg nutrition is like an option on the global price of sweet whey ,the smart money shorting thg has left the room

only steve left :-)

How smart were Qube?

Ran it all the way down to sub 39

They didn’t even close when we had the non bids off Iain Mc and the Candy man and they rode Apollo, didn’t even sell then

Who knows they may be back but comforting that they played Bank once the TU was out after the demerger

Trackers / passive funds are going to need 7% of the free float

Going to be an interesting 6 weeks or so