Member Info for Okehurst1

Hi Steve ( wonka) good to see you back, keep us updated on L2 :-)

Market Makers need stock, we will get the usual move down to nick from weak hands but Shorts / Trackers/Ashley need big volume and the shares ain’t there to satisfy all 3 groups

‘Steve’s’ will do their best take of doom and gloom but technically the tide is against them

Shorts

Ashley

FTSE 250 trackers

Sit back and enjoy the ride

My view

THG have £55M FCF after everything covered

Whey drops 25% pro rata moves close to £100M FCF

helped by refinancing the debt / cash on balance sheet

That’s got to be worth £1B to £1.25B m/cap all day long

Ashley accumulating, he sees what we see above,we know he likes 20%+ so that’s another 180M shares

FTSE 250 Trackers require 60M to 90M shares so we have a liquidity squeeze

Moulding has to accelerate his game plan to head off Ashley

however that looks, doing something with Nutrition looks the most obvious but he can’t sit on his hands

Long / shorts will try and trade, Ashley will do what he does but it’s just physics from this point the share price is going one way and that’s up, regardless of what the ‘ Steve’s ‘ say

Wild Tiger will have them in his under 18 ISA

Check out the Boo RNS’s / defence docs, it’s worth a read, bit heavy but gives you an insight into how Ashley plays

The Sunday Times had a good article two months ago on Ashley as well

Ditto if you watch how how he builds his stakes via RNS’s and when there is liquidity he uses CFD’s short/ long

It’s all legit, look how he accumulated 13M shares here in a couple of weeks, it’s class bit of trading, he won’t over pay

MM’s get the nod off his brokers they may have a buyer at a price of xx pence , MM’s then do their bit … the little PI gets mugged, in this case Ashley hits 13M shares and he’s bagged another 1%

Repeat / Rinse now till he gets to 20% or 29.99% but he has to contend with a tightly held stock and 250 trackers joining the party

Final thoughts, you have to feel for the PI who sells because

50 posts a day Steve tells them to … and they do it .

As posted by others, MA uses CFD’s to short, panics PI’s to sell and MM’s accumulate for him / brokers, guess he was possibly trying to avoid THG achieving FTSE 250 status as he has to shortly compete with the Trackers/ passive funds

Prox, I don’t think Ashley was on the MM road map, they need to do something to stop him building his stake or at least make him pay more, no idea how they do that as the Fox is in the hen house and he’s a shrewd operator , either way it’s getting interesting

Another 13M shares off the market, he needs another 182M to get to his normal 20%

Trackers need 60M to 90M

Over 6%

Hi Moni :-)

Personal opinion

Possible events driven by MM agenda of keeping control

Restructure £600M bond, reduce to £300M using cash on balance sheet , retain RCF

Reduces debt payment to £20M a year

Drives share price, make Ashley pay more

Take Private

Selkirk deal as they are all Ingenuity holders

Not saying last 2 are 100% Certs but wouldn’t be surprised if either came to fruition

‘One market analyst told BusinessCloud: “It’s a total game-changer. This change will lead to potential new buying of between 50-100 million shares.

“There are approximately 1.3bn shares in THG in issue and the index trackers alone could own 6 per cent of the company.

“When you add in the potential shares bought by active mid cap funds you can see why this is so significant’

Every 1% for Ashley if he wants is 13M shares a pop

Sit back & chill we will get to 50p based on fundamentals, meantime MM’s next step financial engineering will be getting worked on

Even on a PE Style valuation THG has to be worth 10 to 12 X clear FCF of £55M after £20M capex

50p a share, looks where it should be based on this metric?Fair comment?

If Whey drops 25% that’s an extra £40M of cash, you can do the maths to see where it could be.

They restructure debt and arguably there is an extra minimum £10M of free cash to be had potentially, THG knocks out £100M a year of clear FCF, it’s doable

Thanks YesIB

That’s a good chunk, throw in Ashley and Shorts, who knows we may get a technical squeeze

Am not sure we can use ASOS as an example of a company joining the 250 and being a success as their shares had a larger relative free float

It was 2 years back but brokers at the time estimated 7% would be required by trackers / passive funds

Take that with a pinch of salt but if correct we could see a run back to 40p and maybe Ashley re joins the games and he was hoping we wouldn’t make it so he could mop up?

We will soon find out, either way good news for THG

Are we in ?

Fair doos Pearls you called it

Steve be careful

Stan will be saying your OSG next

Good Bants Steve :-)

Pearl

Does it suit Ashley to see THG miss the FT250?

He doesn’t have to compete with the trackers for stock ?

Not sure he was shorting on a material basis as we would have had an RNS he dropped below a percentage range ?

My view, put aside the wish list of MM resigning which I can’t see, true or clear FCF is running at £55M to £50M tops as I think we have to deduct Capex of £20M

Sweet whey holds the key if it can drop the muted 25% it’s worth £40M, THG is then in a position to head towards £100M FCF on a £450M m/cap today , THG is almost like an option on this commodity falling

Yes,

Was just putting it out there, as OSG says it happens

The Chairman is useless and the non insider II’s the same

Look how they ripped out Ingenuity, it wouldn’t surprise me.

They can just work away diluting shareholders in Ingenuity via bonus’s / placings etc

It must have crossed his mind to try and nick THG and repeat / rinse