Member Info for Okehurst1

Nb interest paid 2023 was £46M less interest earned

Below was pro rata on 6% coupon where it could be

Yesiam,

Agree both points

Top of my head THG had net £29M interest paid after £7M interest on cash deposit

Ball park they could reduce to maybe £18M with a new Bond and use the unused RCF for day to day if required

With just £20M capex and no Kong, bust newspapers etc U.K. fund THG can fund itself

Whey falls 25% that’s another £40M of cash on a straight line basis

Managing debt / cash isn’t the problem at THG, its MM and the dodgy Chairman who need to go

Good post Elmsley

Take note you’re not a lawyer but have experience.

What’s your take on the 50.1% to go private and classed as a non takeover ? Any views can MM structure ?

Appreciate it’s a grey area

I doubt he could get 75% btw , if that’s what he needed his nil premium private route is scuppered

Yes,

It’s a grey area, he only needs a majority if his lawyers can dress up as a non takeover or Insiders buy in once announced

If he has 50% on board and announces a nil premium to go private then as OSG says we can look at a big initial drop as the II’s who have to sell jump out, new insider buyers can move in on the cheap plus Ashley potentially

Not saying the above is 100% it’s just something we need to be aware of, as we know from Ingenuity deal MM has no scruples, it’s all about him, it’s remarkable he actually gets any II support

OSG, my take as well

There is no other logical explanation for Ashley sitting on his hands and II’s taking any price, Ashley is aware and he mops up

It’s just can Moulding get the percentage if he structures as non takeover ? Guess that’s the question? And does he gamble on Ashley loading up? It’s big punt

Stan

I want MM out, can’t understand the fall from 40p heading to 30p

THG has always been leaky and we can’t trust MM/BoD

It doesn’t appear II’s will buy into THG and MM wants off the market, THG have not even made a 2025 forecast

So it’s another capital event with Ashley watching and waiting

Some thoughts after the recent share price fall

I would suggest he’s making his move to take Private and sounding out II’s which has prompted some to sell down, volume has not been massive but there are lack of buyers and the share price has been hammered

It’s not shorts or we would have had a raft of disclosures

So some II’s have got wind of his plan and he is trying to work out can he get to 50.1% to take THG off the market

MM problem is it could play into Ashley’s hands as the price would plummet and Ashley mops up on the cheap to 29.99% whilst the public to private transition completes

Post private THG is matched bargain like Ingenuity

It’s just can MM muster 50.1% ?

Is MM running this down to make a £Bid to take private?

There seems to be no logic to IR silence / lack of 2025 forecast?

He then heads off Ashley, would he get away with 70p /£1B ?

Or he tries to come off the market ?

It’s remarkable that Moulding owns just 14% of THG worth £60M, controls £1.9B of revenue and sucks £400M a year to his privately owned business, he’s nicked Ingenuity for peanuts and is now running THG shareholders into the ground with no II’s challenging him and the dodgy Chairman in his pocket.

It highlights all what’s wrong with U.K. small Caps

Hippo,

It’s 50.01% to go private, 75% to get scheme of arrangement.

Not saying that’s MM’s plan 100% but he has to keep that £400M a year to Ingenuity, it’s an option ?

Crowman,

Guess MM would like to take THG private but can he get the II Support ?

Thinking it through, if he could get 50% support he could just take THG private and take off the market and deal with the other 50% as and when

This is all being driven by Ingenuity whales who need control of the £400M a year they nick from THG, the pack of cards falls down without ?

Taking THG private on the cheap may suit the big II’s

Whey drops 25% and Nutrition knocks out £55M cash

They nick Beauty in the process

Cong,

Yeah he would need 75%, can he secure ?

Assume he’s got the backing of the whales in Ingenuity, goes without saying, ballpark is that 40% to 50% THG ?

He just needs 25% to throw their chips in ?

Could he make the offer saying he’s got 50% and see where it’s takes him? He picks off the last 25% by scheme of arrangement, no investor wants to be stuck in that for months

It would be ruthless by MM but he’s got form, he can say 70p and he may just do it if he has 50% in the pot

Steve

I went with last audited accounts and discounted the £raise as it was in and out

Be it £500M to £550M however it’s achieved they have the use of that cash, it’s there - I mentioned they have debt

Sir Terry Leahy, this is his arena, leverage THG, suck out the FCF to service debt, protects Ingenuity, work on splitting out Nutrition

Not saying this will happen but the cash is on the balance sheet to assist the Private Equity players deliver

The cash & cash equivalent was £600M at the end of 2023, of course it’s got debt but can they restructure? Guess they could.

What would they need to buy out and offered £1B ish / 65p to 70p if they they could secure big II’s on board ?

Then spin Nutrition sort debt ?

Is that their thought process ?

Feels like THG small shareholders are getting played

OSG

Looking that way, guess it’s just can they get the 70% to agree terms?

THG is heading to be a ‘ cash shell ‘ which has £1.9B a year of revenue generating £80M FCF, MM/ Cronies are going to nick this potentially

Hi Investing101

Few thoughts, no answers to them

Am starting to think could it also be a full blown buy out by MM/ Cronies? He would need a good chunk of large holders to run with him, he would need 70% to push over the line, it could be low ball offer and like 70p(£1B)as an example

He doesn’t need the 100%, he picks off / threatens the 30% with a scheme of arrangement

It’s just has he got the FCF in THG to fund and deal with the debt, lot of hurdles for him to jump to pull that off?

He could of course sell off a part of Nutrition at that point to fund post going private ?

Something is going on as IR not responding and they have not provided forecasts for 2025 which is a first, coupled with where does Ashley sit, is he hostile or just looking at a quick trade ?

MM needs to control THG or Ingenuity is at serious risk and the pack of cards collapse, suggest that’s what’s driving the process, how can they secure and keep that £400M a year from THG flowing into his coffers?

Some thoughts

Could be Ashley playing around but he only has a split percentage to work with, RNS wise, can’t see it being him ?

Not even sure if it’s Shorts as such although could be Long /Shorts but even then they are obliged to disclose over .5%

‘Knowbody ‘ mentioned it feels like an II selling down for whatever reason, it’s going to need an ‘event ‘ to get this back above where it was pre merger news, Ashley could well mop up to 49p but he doesn’t over pay historically

MM being kicked out would of course be a major positive but I can’t see him resigning

Some risk but a good opportunity at 30p + for a 50% bounce, I am in 42p average so under water, funds at hand if we sink into the late 20s to average down but who knows far this could drop I didn’t see 33p

Prox

Think your reasoning is on the money.

Iain McDonald/ Sir Terry Leahy, this is what they do, the especially the latter who is a senior advisor inside

Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, lifted their wiki intro below

‘CD&R had ownership stakes in, among others, B&M Retail, Envision Healthcare, The Hertz Corporation, Hussman International, Rexel (a distributor of electrical parts and equipment) and US Foods (a broadline foodservice distributor), Sally Beauty, Diversey, Inc., VWR International, Brake Bros, Kinko's (now FedEx Office, previously FedEx Kinko's), Uniroyal Goodrich Tire Company and Lexmark.

In June 2024, Clayton, Dubilier & Rice were ranked 11th in Private Equity International's PEI 300 ranking of the largest private equity firms in the world.[2’

This outfit is a whale, IainMc has been MM’s rainmaker for 12 years ditto Sir Terry, they need to stay in control of THG to ensure the £400M comes over each year as they are big stakeholders in Ingenuity

There is a decent chance they have been working on a deal to raise the money inside Selkirk to take out Nutrition, is it’s £1B or £750M, split cash and shares, may suit them and MM for the share price to be down 50% since the demerger announced, the problem they had was Ashley joining the party

Anyways something has to give here, financial engineering event is my call

Oxford

No Oscar for Mouldings performance