Member Info for Okehurst1

Yesim,

No argument with Steve regarding the market and MM, it’s fair to say it will only be a maverick / risk taker like Ashley who can have a pop at MM.

The THG Chairman takes the £400,000 each year and does nothing, the II’s are pretty toothless

My view is it suits Ashley for THG to not make the 250 and he has another 3 months to pick up voting shares, he will mop up whatever stock is circulating when the time is right but he won’t over pay so we stay in this doom loop

MA and his cronies need to restructure debt/split away Nutrition to stop Ashley getting to 20% or even higher on the cheap and bringing the pack of cards down

Whey drops 25% and THG could do pro rata £100M FCF on £500M m/cap

Sit tight something will give to the upside

The market is saying Moulding has to go, he knows that as well.

It’s why we haven’t had the linked in posts slating the City, he’s keeping his head down on that channel

Personally I don’t think he can actually resign without serious issues around Ingenuity and the £400M a year THG pays him, he needs to control THG to keep the cash machine printing money, it’s a whopping £33M of cash he is getting each month

Take the case the THG Directors lose the case, any views on what’s the affect on the company financially ?

Would the timeline look like this ?

MM would have to resign ? Even he couldn’t survive that ?

Then the Company settles the claim whatever that is?

The Company then comes at MM and his cronies at the time for recompense?

Guess then would it depend on if the judge thought the directors acted fraudulently would the case be sent to the CPS for potential criminal charges ?

You can see why Moulding won’t relinquish control / stand down, he needs to stay in the seat , who funds the legal cost(THG) as well as drives the legal response( Moulding )

He owns 10% ish of THG but controls the 100%, he makes the II’s holding THG look stupid

MM and the Chairman are a disgrace to the City of London / LSE

Ashley has set himself up to take advantage, snap back is coming as he picks up the trade on the other side, he won’t over pay though based on his track record

Of course …

Big Mike tactics, uses CFD’s, Long / Short trades to push price around a couple pence up and down to pull in voting shares.

He won’t over pay but he needs sellers as notifiable Shorts are hiding under the water line

Let’s see end of the week but the share is getting worked

Could be a red herring and Iain Mc of Selkirk was the muppet who put the non bid of £1.70, he’s got as much credibility as the Candymans non bid , remember him as well ?

Iain Mc said he was looking at buying 49% of a business generating £55M FCF, whey drops 25% and Nutrition generates £55M a year

Himself and his cronies in Selkirk are also original financiers of THG and now make up some of the largest shareholders in Ingenuity

Who knows if Selkirk can raise the ££ but it looks like they are having a pop to?

Ashley picks up in the market as well as off book

He needs 13M per 1% guess he will take them however his brokers get them ? If it is MA that is ?

Not much free float at THG, brokers estimate 7% required for passive /tracker 250 funds, assume Ashley wants 20% that’s almost 280M shares between the 2 groupings ex Shorts

Not saying this is nailed on but there is a fair chance which mitigates the risk a tad, wonder where all the shares will come from ?

Agree Steve, he is despised by the market and shareholders alike

Looks like the buyer has tweaked the offer price up a couple pence to the market makers, classic Ashley.

Let’s see next week if he has accumulated his next 13M of shares

Suggest it’s a decent bet he will nudge up to 50p as per the £10M he bought 2 months ago at 49p, he has until early March for FTSE inclusion and it’s a short month, needs 180M shares to get to his favoured 20% minimum holding

We will see

If Steve is correct and Shorts doubling down then someone is picking everything on the Offer

We can only guess who it is but someone buying up and taking the other side of the trade ?

Sorry I was half time FCF

SJ, not fully studied APN what’s your take on how they report FCF ?

Point being THG in demerger doc report including interest / debt repayment but don’t mention capex, I was including capex above, how does that compare to APN ?

Any idea ? Is true FCF or stuff still to come out ?

If THG restructure debt using cash on the balance sheet and it was split between both companies, the interest payment could arguably drop to £8M to £9M a year per business, maybe capital payments £5M per unit

Whey drops 25% and THG have an extra £40M cash per annum, that could give them £55M FCF, maybe a tad lower

APN could be £8M FCF ?

As MM said on the conf call last month, either the market values THG at fair value or something will happen which it did, Ashley joined the game, guess others on the sidelines with plans

Whey drops 25% / debt restructured, THG can’t stay at £550M m/cap something has to give

Half time trading update

£47.6M revenue

Market Cap. £370M

Make that make sense

Think Oxford said ‘ Oke & Steve same side of the same coin ‘

Some truth in that … am ultra long at 40p and Steve ultra Bear ( short)at 40p … but we agree at the extremes, it’s just that I don’t care about L2 on the day, follow the data /numbers

As Steve says the ‘ fox is in the hen house ‘ Ashley is going to 20% + here if he can get the stock, he won’t over pay or buy out the 80% he doesn’t need to, Ingenuity is the one for him, make that go bust and same time he bags Nutrition / Beauty, runs his payment system through THG etc etc

Same time take out the Fat in THG, there must be loads to remove looking how many CEO’s we have as an example ?

The punt at 40p is will go this go to 80p ? Or higher?

I think we will see a bagger from here rather than 30p, Risk/Reward is stacked nicely, the sooner MM and his cronies are kicked off the BoD the better, the game has changed

So let’s get this straight

We have now just 2 businesses, one in nutrition one in beauty, the health spa , Hotels , news paper, even Kong has gone

So we have a CEO called Matt who oversees another CEO called Lucy who oversees another CEO called Neil and we have a Lord as a Chairman but no one sees him he just gets £400k for nothing, there is also a life time President but luckily he now ‘works’ in another business that THG had until a few weeks and there is a CEO there as well

… and we still don’t have an official 2025 forecast

Our best bet is Ashley gets to 20% plus and forces changes

As AS1 says it looks like we are heading to 50p ish being the right issue price and Ashley’s known £10M slug of shares

PI’s who sold out/ shorts / long short traders, fed Ashley his next £15M of shares , looks like he’s raised his Offer price via his brokers by a few pence, of course Jeff’s client will be in the mix as well

FTSE 250 inclusion looks well nailed

My only caveat is FCF, which is why I think they have skipped 2025 forecast

If they restructure debt , repay the cash etc they could get interest to £17M / capital repayment £10M, we know capex is £20M

So clear FCF is £50M +

But if Whey continues to drop 25% there is pro rata £40M extra cash, with forecast CAGR they could hit £70M FCF assume they enjoy 6 months at discounted whey prices

However if they magic away the debt with a demerger , pull in the £30M vat ( I agree with Steve on this point , discount till it happens, it’s a red herring ) or big Mike gets to 20% and goes for the jugular being the £400M MM enjoys from THG then it’s all bets off

Sit tight enjoy the ride

The game has changed for the shorts and long/shorts

Interesting how Jefferies quote they couldn’t provide coverage due to close period

Suggest this 33 page detailed report has been done with management over a number of weeks, thought it was unusual for THG not to put something out

You can join the dots for £100M + EBITDA 2025

Looks cheap on 5X

Stanley, this may be a bit heavy for you so look away :-)

‘Reflecting the above, we see THG delivering a strong growth trajectory over the coming years, with a top-line CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of +7 per cent and continuing EBITDA building from £90m in FY24e to £133m in FY26e at a CAGR of +20 per cent.’

So there it is …. £90M EBITDA for 2024

£136M 2026 forecast

2025 looks north of £100M