Member Info for Okehurst1

Looks that way AS1

I just can’t see MA putting a bid in job lot for THG

He generates £600M inside Frasers and gambles a chunk, see where it takes him punt this one

£100M gets him 20% and then throw his weight around, that’s his MO , plus he doesn’t over pay, he uses tactics like his current play, before you know it he’s at 10% etc and so on

This is the nightmare scenario for MM / Ingenuity chums, MA puts himself up as the CEO of THG, goes for that £400M a year THG pays MM, he could well win that vote?

The useless Chairman goes as well

MM needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat here with the next stage of his plan to engineer away all or a good chunk of debt at same time provide some good news around profit /cash or MA is going to be calling for MM to stand down once he fills his boots, us little PI’s risk has been mitigated thanks to big Mike, Shorts and Long/ shorts will get toasted

Ox,

As Steve pointed out they always do a capital market day and produce their forecast for the year

You would think with entry to FTSE 250 looming they would say something ? Anything ? We have had nothing ?

Am guessing / personal view,I think it’s a mixture of financial engineering around debt, trying to forecast the affect of the drop of £Whey, long shot the SPV Selkirk set up by the Ingenuity crew are trying to raise funds to structure a deal that keeps control of Nutrition and ultimately THG, Ashley coming along has had them scrambling around.

Something going on within THG, the silence is uncanny

Frasers have put a floor of effectively around 40p on the offer give or take

Suggest Ashley’s brokers can’t access the stock they have indicated to the market makers they are willing to pay, Shorts are not doubling down and long / short traders don’t have enough on the margin to make it work for them, as such you have a stand off

Let’s see if Ashley blinks first, he needs to move up a few pence but that shows his hand for sure

Guess it depends on how much Ashley has to pay per 1% being 13M shares, he has dropped £25M into THG and he tends to like a seat at the table and that won’t give him that bargaining chip, I don’t think he will Bid for THG btw that’s not his game

He needs 180M shares to get his usual min 20%

Watch the Market Makers move the price up just before we see the next TR1, that’s the signal they have completed a tranche of plus 1%, it’s coming.

Eph,

Tbh just musing on the numbers from what we know

It was strange that MM mentioned £40M extra cash from Nutrition on Whey dropping on price yet we have had no update on forecasts /capital market day - Steve mentioned this the other week and it’s fair comment

Pure guess but the BoD are working on something around restructuring debt/ financial engineering, seems logical and explains radio silence, as pointed out by many on here THG don’t need the cash they have on the balance sheet

Below is a back of fav paper stuff but I don’t think am far away if we go off the demerger docs

Post demerger I had in at £55M FCF based on forecast £20M capex includes interest and £22M debt repayment

Let’s say they enjoy £20M from the drop in whey, they could look at £75M FCF …allow in 6 months

Restructure debt by 50%, maybe reduce repayment to £10M a year from £20M last 2 years ?

Could they get interest paid from £35M to £20M ?Via restructuring and not holding as much cash ? Suggest it’s doable

Another £25M of cash to be had above and they are on £100M

I think the above is achievable regards the debt restructuring although I’ve not built in cost to break, Whey is starting to drop

Musings

FCF after capex is £50M ish - I don’t think Capex is included as they don’t mention, it’s an MM tactic from old

So all things being equal and knowing whey makes up a good chunk of Nutrition cost base if it drops 25% on the commodity market arguably MM’s number of £40M extra FCF pro rata gets Remain to £90M FCF ( pro rata monthly it won’t be a full year )

but for some reason they won’t forecast ?

Unless they have a deal lined up for Nutrition am not sure why they are not shouting about this and providing forecasts, strange as it could stop Mike gobbling up the free stock ?

No idea ?

Or

Restructure the debt, reduce the amount of debt , reduce the payments which are £22M capital plus interest ,keep the FCF of Nutrition, makes sense ?

The third route is to sell all or part of Nutrition, hold on to Beauty standalone ?Repay debt and you may still get to £80M FCF owning just 50% of Nutrition

Agree with Steve , MM has to go, his days are numbered

Steve yeah ok it’s a dog … but it’s our dog

Steve, when you chat the numbers I can’t disagree, it’s fact THG has been a dog of an investment

But the game has changed with Ingenuity gone and Capex £20M coupled with Mike Ashley starting to buy up the stock

And maybe … there is £40M extra cash if Whey drops 25% who knows on that one

Ashley is all ready in for £25M ballpark he’s going to punt £100M ( of his annual £600M casino money from Frasers ) to go to 20% if he can get the stock, the downside short term is covered for us PI’s

MM needs to financially engineer away the debt and quick before Ashley has twice as much stock as him and goes for him / Good Lord at the AGM

Anyone in early 40’s average, get the popcorn out and wait to see this play out

As per Ashley’s play book the Market Makers are picking up what they can, he needed 13M shares from the last RNS to breach 6%, he may have to move the needle and take the range up a few pence as he tries to accumulate 13M slugs each 1%

Either way he takes the opposite trade of any Shorts and same with any Long/Short trader, these 2 groups won’t make money from this point, for pure Longs we can have a level of confidence THG will access FTSE 250 status and the free float is picked up by the passive / tracker funds

MM buying shares, Selkirk, some sort financial engineering, a left field move by 3rd party, whatever, that’s the potential big upside but in the meantime Ashley doing his thing works for us little PI’a, sit tight and enjoy watching this play out, money to be made.

OSG, I think your correct, Big Mike with his algo’s / CFDs pushing the price up / down a pence here and there to tickle stock out of weak hands but there is limited supply, reckon the market knows how he trades

MA has dropped £25M already, his MO is 20% +

I am taking the view we now have a floor on the price give or take a couple of pence, sit this out now for the next move by MM or MA pushing up the offer towards 49p which is what he paid 7 weeks ago is my guess which means FTSE 250 inclusion is secure and we also have a slim possibility of an outside Bid for Nutrition maybe?

Whey drops 25% and Nutrition generates an extra pro rata £40M cash ,guessing but think that’s making it difficult for THG to provide a forecast at the moment, it’s a big number

Shorts and long / short traders get squeezed in the meantime.

Based on Ashley’s track record he won’t Bid for THG and why would he ?

Frasers has historically enjoyed £600M FCF, he uses this to make big bets, THG is just another punt, is this his play ?

Guessing, reckon when Mike bought £10M of THG at 49p placing price he didn’t roll into Ingenuity, but he got a peek of the Ingenuity books, you don’t need to be an accountant to realise Ingenuity is bust without THG £400M

So Mike uses his normal playbook to buy more THG shares on the QT and breaches the 3% threshold, then since last week ballpark he’s committed £25M ish of cash all in to go to 5%

That 5% gets him nowhere in the game, he needs 20% plus to really start pulling levers, so a further £75M at current price, give or take he needs another 180M shares

So he’s got a window between FTSE 250 and MM close season to accumulate, his problem is the free float in THG is super tight due to the way MM set it up as a public company

However if he can get to 20% plus he can do a ‘ Boo’ on THG and run a campaign to dislodge MM who as the 49% shareholder of Ingenuity is enjoying £400M a year from THG

Put that into prospective of Ashley punting £100M to bag 20% of 2 business’s and be Defacto controller of Ingenuity’s future and knowing it’s cost £1B to put the latter together, this is

Meat & Drink to Big Mike, think Boo list 34 companies he has done similar style arbitrage on .

So any Shorts have a problem, ditto long / short traders

Mike will pick up everything you sell at these levels and arguably 50p is his wish list price as he has already bought £10M at this level in Q4 2024

Will he get to 180M even if he goes to 50p? Who knows but MM can’t sit tight here, he’s on the ropes, he has to do something he has the ranch on the line here , meanwhile FTSE 250 looks firm now

Hi Telx

Without me going through the documents again, it’s heavy reading but they have also disclosed to Brokers it’s a 10 year gig, what we don’t know is the KPI’s / break clauses

£4B of benefit for MM but is it a true market value for THG?

They also touch on the 2 year handover of IT services

We don’t know what the price Ashley is prepared to pay to grab his next slug of voting shares to go over the next declared percentage ?

Market Makers move the price up to pick up weak hands as per the last couple of weeks, Ashley uses the CFD’s as a handbrake to the price to spook would be sellers

Repeat / rinse, it’s simple but it works

Market Makers have now cleared their book to Ashley whose broker will have had a word on the price that they will come back on the Offer.

Ashley will use CFD’s just under the percentage threshold as/ when he can to suppress the price and the market makers pick up weak hands of voting stock and he then closes the CFD before disclosing his new updated holding

Repeat / rinse

It’s simple but effective and we see the same patterns if you have followed him in similar situations like we find THG today

Ashley has a window to load up before FTSE 250 index funds have to buy in, I guess the question is, due to the demerger is MM unable to trade and if he can he may only have a few weeks to move before himself / THG moving into a closed period

MM/ ingenuity crony whales, do they bring forward their next stage of the plan, whatever that may be? Logic says they must do if possible, they need to stop Ashley picking up 20% or 30% whatever as he then starts calling the shots

At 40p it’s stacked nicely as a risk / reward play ,PI’s can sit back and await the fun and games that is coming, either MA risks control and does nothing or he pulls a rabbit out of the hat, it’s all to play for?

I don’t think it’s hostile to Bid for THG, rather he gets to 20% or even the 29.99% and makes a move for BoD control, I don’t think MA is a pal of MM, he’s an opportunist who like gambling

This is his is MO

TelX

The info is in the demerger Doc

Mentioned the other day it’s worth a peep at the Boo defence document as it goes into some detail of Mikes MO

Few thoughts

Based on that MO,Ashley at this level will keep adding here until he gets to 20% plus then make a move for BoD control, it’s not IF just how long will it take

This is the nightmare for MM/ ingenuity whales, THG has given them a whopping £4B contract, if Mike can gets control of THG BoD he can try and unravel, Ingenuity with £170M of revenue would be technically insolvent without THG £400M a year, he then sweeps in and tries to pick up Ingenuity which will come in handy for Frasers, he will by then have an understanding of the business as he invested in the same in the recent £raise.

Ashley is a top trader, using CFD’s he will move the share price a few pence up and down within ranges as he takes shares off weak hands, THG shorts are done one way or another, same long / short traders

All the above is helpful for us PI’s as MM / cronies will have to accelerate their plans to split away Nutrition / settle debt and drive the share price up to make Ashley pay top dollar for THG

Yorek, not too sure on MM’s liquidity/ there has been no 2025 forecast, we enter close period this month, it’s in his interest to increase his stake

Worth a read of the Boo defence document, gives a good idea of how Ashley works/ track record