Member Info for Okehurst1

Kbyn

THG has always been leaky, plenty of noise around Selkirk it’s just can they raise the $$?

That’s the problem for shorts / traders trying to catch the bottom, if the do manage it then this one has potentially £1+ on the news, the scramble to close gives PI Long to make money

Tbh it was an article via Bloomberg on their terminal

from an unnamed source saying Apollo had said they won’t pay more than £1.40, think the price was £1.20 at the time

I sold and posted the article, weirdly the price held for maybe 30 mins and Ryan / the Crowman ( got to love the Crowman ) bailed and I think we all made a few quid which is nice

It wasn’t luck as such it was thanks to the access of a Bloomberg Terminal

All by the by, here we are back in yet again

Oxford, agree, but we quite possibly have one of the worst Chairman the City has seen in recent years, whilst the II’s do nothing about him then MM will continue to nick the assets for nothing, it’s a scandal the Good Lord is still in the Chair

Am long THG but I just can’t the TU on its own having a relative affect to the share price, if it’s decent maybe 45p to 50p becomes the new anchor buts that it.

The key is their plan for the debt and how to split Nutrition and Beauty but MM keeps his £400M a year flowing.

Has to be top of their agenda, MM doesn’t give a toot about the City /engaging with them, he has made that very clear

We know his MO, it’s about what’s in for him at the expense of the shareholders which is fair enough I guess , we all know what he’s like , he nicked Ingenuity for £25M let’s see does he leave anything on the table for others when he engineers away the debt, that’s our risk/ reward

THG is always leaky, plus I can’t see the market getting excited with an EBITDA forecast - earnings before paying your bills

It’s just do they have anything on a capital event / financial engineering? It’s a very slim chance other than news update on the full listing

Steve

Let’s see the TU & forecast we can then measure, THG share price is already pricing in a grim festive period, if it’s worse than expected then the heat is firmly on MM

Are they attempting to produce the TU alongside a further capital event / they have been approached ? No idea ?

The known unknowns egh ? We know they have to do something

They indicated £77M to £80M FCF in recent docs with everything covered, but I don’t think it includes capex, it’s just one of the MM card tricks, so I would deduct

If 20M capex is pucker then £60M FCF and that’s after £22M debt repayment last October

They will throw in the legals for the demerger as a one off cost

they always have some write offs they pull out the draw although we had one off property gains last year

Anyway point being my view I have pencilled in £60M FCF net net before one offs, maybe 11X on that is fair value ?

Restructure the debt and they save pro rata £57M with capital payments, could Beauty hit £80M to £90M FCF standalone with a restructuring of Nutrition as discussed ?

I would argue that’s £1B value, 80p a share

Nutrition - because APN £350M m/cap it’s a hard one to value but is it 30p pro rata for the 50% equity ? Maybe ?

So 50p a share fair value as it stands vs £1.10 SOTP if they can pull off a bit of financial engineering based on FCF

Know it’s not an exact science but it gives us some idea and alternative view to Polish

Cong not sure it matters ?

The share price is going nowhere without MM and the useless chairman being kicked out and we know that’s difficult

Capital event

Squeeze into 250 maybe

One or the other should help the share price by default but without that who knows how low this goes before something happens?

MM’s oasis video didn’t help matters in terms of attracting II investors

Good luck to day traders making a penny here and there at these levels it’s kind of irrelevant unless on margin or you don’t trade

Steve

John Heywood's 1546 proverb springs to mind

‘it's an ill wind (that blows nobody any good)’

Profit to be made going long at these levels,money on the sidelines waiting, let the Shorts / traders do the hard work, average in and wait, who cares about L2 etc unless day trading

£260M per business unit and the leases gone it’s just a question of time for the next event

Moulding and the Chairman are a disgrace to the London Public Shares Market

Average is now low 40’s, looks cheap at £260M m/cap per unit Oxford, probably hold tight

Good question Oxford

Could be wrong but I think sometime H1 this year but one way another they demerge these last 2 business units from each other and sort the debt, the punt is they unlock the value for shareholders at that point

Know it’s not nailed on but the risk / reward looks ok for PI’s

it’s hard to call the very bottom so it could fall further,I have no idea what happens short term but there is a possibility an event happens out of the blue.

3rd gig with this outfit , we all know that they are leaky so stuff happens fast, sit tight time is my view / position

Think everyone agrees Debt has to be dealt with, it’s the loose end for MM

Know it’s not a given but his right hand finance man for the last 11 years is Iain Mc and it could be 2 + 2 is 5 that Selkirk has been set up to raise the $ to sort out the debt and ensure MM retains an element of control, I am only here for a capital event and I could be wrong but that’s my take

However we have to remember the same Iain Mc did the non bid for £1.70 and he has very little credibility

I guess all we need now is the Candyman to say he wants a nibble and the Good Lord to raise his head and we can have a repeat of the debacle 2 years ago

Whichever way you look at the BoD past and present they are a complete shambles and MM is a disgrace as a CEO of a quoted company on the LSE

Over and above the 20% they have inter Co shared services for a 2 year period according to the demerger document

Steve,

I get £400M of fees for distribution but whats the make up of the other £200M?

The accounts show 20% of top line revenue for above

Hi Crowman

My view, MM needs to sort the debt, he’s not doing it for shareholders, it’s all about what’s in it for him

If he doesn’t sort the debt and the numbers continue to fall then he risks II’s eventually doing something about it.

Not without risk buying at this level but risk/ reward looks reasonable taking the above on board

Splitting away Nutrition is logical and Beauty gets a rerate as standalone and MM keeps the £400M a year gravy train rolling

Rock

As you know I have been in/out THG over the years, noticed your posts and take note of how upset you are with your investment and your comments to other investors like the one below ,you mentioned dividends, as you know I am back in and long but even I don’t expect a dividend yet

‘i have been a private investor holder (at various quantities) in thg and posting since 2022.

i have every right to be ****ed off and cynical of management’s promises.’

I just wouldn’t trust anything MM says, there will be no dividend until they restructure the debt, the share price won’t materially move until a capital event or MM resigns

You make the call do you accumulate at these levels and await a major event or not ?

Try not stress on daily movements or L2 etc just relax we will make money eventually from 40p

Steve, agree.

This is why there will be some form of financial engineering by MM that is driven by his agenda and him not losing control

If the above is correct then he has action the next stage of his plan H1 this year, the sooner the better from his point of view

Rock, understand you have lost money on THG don’t think you should be buying the shares for sustainable income stream

Why would they pay a dividend ? They have debt that’s costing £35M a year to service plus £20M annual capital repayment?

Put aside there may well be covenants against a dividend whilst debt outstanding?

You take a punt at these levels that they financially engineer away the debt however that’s done, if it’s partial sale there is a chance we get a special dividend but that’s not cert

Get the debt repaid and bag the extra £50M free cash flow then think about dividends

THG always leaky