Member Info for Okehurst1

Hi OSG

My take was Remain Co takes the shares at par face then cancel they don’t go into treasury as an example and we end up with 1.3B ish shares over night once EGM out the way etc as per timetable

Next event FTSE tracker funds requiring 7% of the 1.3B sometime Q1 - unless interest from 3rd parties

Nice trade OSG, fair doos you called it

Same here, nibbling away adding more

£77M FCF , £20M Capex , £1.9B Rev, Ingenuity leases gone and it’s capex, FTSE listing March, Index funds have to buy in.

£650M m/cap plus debt, downside looks limited, bagger yet again on THG from here, it’s the gift that keeps giving

Hi Master

Appreciate it’s a grey art but what’s the next resistance level ?

I’ve not kept up to date with what THG still owns or doesn’t

remember the Bike shop went and Coggles the clothes shop

Guessing the newspaper, Studio, health club lease , hotel lease and Kong have all been throw in with the £Millions of cash that was emptied when Remain was tipped upside down

Remain however did keep the £hundreds of Millions of debt so MM was sharing some things ?

When you look at Demerger Doc, capex at £20M group ,then look at how much debt is costing the business, they bring $ in to pay off and Beauty with £10M Capex churns the cash

If you were MM you would do that deal, he’s in full control each business

Hi OSG

It’s quite a simple structure when you think about

Selkirk founders borrow £500M to buy MP they issue paper on top, there is a charge on their 49% equity

MP has no debt, it’s just a different way to fund and provide protection to the Bank, nowt underhand with that, Bank are covered, everyones a winner.

The founders have a carry on the upside after debt repaid

it’s super tax efficient wise for them 28% not 45% and they can buy out the 51% when the timing is they so wish

Iain pointed out Selkirk is not a shell so we know it’s 50% job

Could be another £1B target of course but Iain Mc knows MP inside out and he’s MM’s financial guru and it’s a great deal for MM which is all that matters to him

Anyways we should find out Q1

YB

Your on the $money

This has been gamed out

I doubt Apollo valued Ingenuity at 65p a share(£780M valuation ) more likely they were buying the group and MM was negotiating a price they would sell that bit back to him

18 months on it’s only got £160M external Rev requires further capex so they have cleaned out the Remain piggy bank of £cash and without Remain giving it £400M a year of business it’s a non starter.

MM nicked it for £25M, he won’t be sharing the upside with little PI’s that’s not his MO, one to two placings will see most off then restructure once they go above 75% with a scheme of arrangement

Maybe look at this from MM’s side

Selkirk is set up not as a shell but as PE style vehicle, it raises £500M to fund 49% of MP and issues paper to Remain

Remain pays off debt / bit to shareholders

Remain shareholders receive Selkirk shares called MP

Selkirk founders vehicle owes the debt and the Bank has a charge on the 49%, it pays off the debt on disposal

The Bank have little risk as they have 49% and no 3rd party debt, they are in control

Iain Mc who is MM’s right hand finance man can come back for the 51% he doesn’t control when the timing is right

MM/Family pick up a £125M cheque and enjoy £125M of equity in a rebadged MP but still have executive control

The debt issue has been sorted and Beauty should be rerated to £1B and MM /family has a £250M stake

Iain Mc @ co only pay 28% tax on their ‘carry ‘once MP sold off

MM nicks Ingenuity for £25M and awash with $$ to dilute PI’s with fund raise or two

Class bit of business.

OSG spot on, MM revels on being the dastardly James Bond villain.

It’s a bummer for LTH’s to watch him taking the P.

Suggest the focus now is do they move to repay bank debt?

That has to be a key consideration for Remain, it’s a high interest cost coupon and according to the demerger doc they used a wedge of cash to bring the principle down over 2024

If Remain removed debt and focuses on each business unit and not buying Kong/ Newspapers etc which hopefully it won’t do,it can churn decent cash with a load of tax losses to use up.

You missed off the MM affect, people don’t trust him

Suggest the 15% reduction in shares in Remain is helpful as is the £20M group capex forecast

They sort out the debt,logically that’s next step and Remain should push on

Risk/Reward is a decent punt at 50p

I don’t think it’s the question is there a market for Ingenuity, without doubt there is, the issue is the small PI shareholder and MM and his track record.

He’s nicked Ingenuity for net £25M his track record overall speaks for itself.

Being a little PI with a few shares in a private Co with MM and John as the lifetime President is an accident waiting to happen.

Alternative, we end up with 15% less shares in Remain so it’s back to Pre demerger placing levels but the bulk of the leases are ditched and capex is £20M between both businesses and you have a marketable security that is generating cash, on balance that’s surely the better option?

THG has valued Ingenuity equity near /around £100M

Demerger doc says Ingenuity breaks FCF even 2027

The business generates £160M external revenue ex Remain and has serious leases.

PI’s are relying on fair terms for any potential fund raise

looking at numbers gut feel Ingenuity will need cash in 2026

that’s the opportunity for MM/Chums to vastly dilute PI’s

Different rules for Private Companies to quoted PLC

Risk is too high in my opinion to run with Ingenuity

Demerger Doc discloses Ingenuity have 24 months as they decouple from Remain in terms of shared services

It’s just down to the distribution deal after that by the looks of things

MP pay £140M ish a year to Ingenuity ? No idea if that’s a good deal for MP or not but based on MM’s track record think we can guess and say not?

It’s a big wedge (20%) to fork out, can a standalone MP do future new business in the open market and negotiate better terms with Ingenuity on the back of?

Guess you have to work out what value the market places on Ingenuity within SOTP? Zero currently ?

Take into account when it’s gone as have the majority of the leases with it and £80M to £100M historic capex / cash burn

Throw in 200M reduction of shares as a Result

THG has basically £paid to get shut so that gives you some idea of the value of Ingenuity today

Hi Kim

Yeah, it looks like yet another MM move could be afoot.

Has the successful marketing of an IPO for APN commanding a £400M M/cap resulted in Selkirk being spawned ?

£1B Bid for MP, give or take £500M cash £500M paper

what’s MP worth with no debt £650M revenue and a vertical supply chain , just £10M capex and FCF positive vs APN £90M revenue ?

Distribute the £500M of paper to Remain shareholders maybe do a cash dividend with the surplus after debt repaid ?

Is the Selkirk paper worth 40p min to Remain holders ?

Sweeten the deal paying a special dividend of the surplus debt on top, maybe.

Then Beauty with £1.3B Rev , no debt, capex £10M, positive FCF, what value 80p ( £1B Mcap min ?)

Of course there is risk,look how the big take out by Apollo fell through, however the break up of THG had to happen after the above failed, first stage almost complete, Selkirk the next piece of the jigsaw,makes sense ?

Iain Mc who has already put one Bid in for THG 2 years ago at £1.70 is also best chums with MM and helped secure the funding for THG Pre IPO

Iain Mc setting up Selkirk as a quoted vehicle then discussing £1B targets but only taking 49% and the business generating cash etc ..

It does feel it’s an MM / Iain Mc plan is to pay off THG debt via raising funds in Selkirk to nab 49% of MP

He’s told the market the price

Wouldn’t put it past the pair of them, especially after taking Ingenuity private, who saw that coming ?

MM deals with the debt, has his man in Selkirk running MP

Beauty is standalone full listing, no debt, £1B plus revenue

basically as a marketplace with the odd store

MM’s fingerprints are all over Selkirk

Good Bants C/Man :-)

Hi Ryan .

Waited for the demerger doc before jumping back in but decent punt at these levels

I’ve tended to go accumulate when one of the Steve’s go ultra bear or the Crowman pops,up always a good sign to buy, never fails.

Ovs some risk here but risk /reward looks good