Member Info for Okehurst1

Interesting point Steve

What’s you take on the Beauty industry average cash flow % point ?

Good points Cong

Why would the Shorts increase ? What is their calculation?

They think they can close when THG has the liquidity event ?

Market makers make a market not hold stock that doesn’t make sense

Someone is selling stock for a reason?

Baldertons can’t hold private shares they end up 6 for 5

and no stake in Ingenuity

Sell a few,(1 sixth ) bring a bit of cash in for their costs

as such they treat like a dividend

Then made whole

Baldertons for example will be on the standard 2/20

2% fees

20% upside

It’s a handy bit of bunce to bring in cash, pays their 2%

Pure guess, mentioned the other day

The market has calculated this event, as such Marshall increased their short on the 21st and the selling is II/ large holders selling their 1:6 in advance, bringing in some cash which is handy for their fees, then being made whole

The whales are treating it like a dividend ?

Cong, makes sense

THG Remain Co will have a liquidity event as MM/ insiders have to transfer shares to PLC who distribute to shareholders who won’t be taking a stake in the private co - unless anyone can explain another mechanism ?

Assume it’s 50% of 250M shares that change hands, pure guess on the percentage but as an example

125M THG become liquid

Some of the II’s won’t be able to hold private shares, many investors don’t trust MM in a Public Co never mind a private one

OSG - wrong currency on my side $300M should read £230M

We don’t know the Terms of Apollo Bid, same as the Iain Mc bid and that’s kind of the point, unless it’s hostile will MM tell us ?

Strip out the £400M inter Co trading then what is the true market value of Ingenuity ? Was the price mooted by MM that Apollo valued Ingenuity actually the price they wanted him to pay if he bought it off them? We just don’t know, it’s guess work

No idea how a bidder without going public on their offer can buy a private unquoted asset owned by a publicly traded company

Anyway let’s see how that one goes but post demerger is where I think the action will be revolving around Remain Co

OSG, not sure how a rival bid gets past MM/ whale insiders/ employee shares ? It would be Bid to buy a private asset from a quoted plc ?

Some thoughts

Let’s say a rival bidder placed a Bid, MM could quite simply refuse the offer and not tell us the terms, just like Apollo or the fantasy Iain McDonald bid, remember that one ?

Or he could just place a one year contract for Remain and Ingenuity owners lose £400M of revenue going forward ,there is not that much Rev once Remain Co removed, not enough to pay the rent / fund capex

MM also owns some of the Ingenuity real estate, he could block the deal by not agreeing to changing of ownership/ covenants as the lease will be guaranteed by THG plc

The Bidder would have to go hostile on THG at group level, that’s a rollercoaster’s ride to go in blind and try and kick off the current BoD / supporters, get to 51% and then deal with £300M of debt

MM has had his agenda which is playing out, he’s gambling most of the II’s outside his circle won’t be able to hold shares in an unquoted share, so are forced sellers of Ingenuity and he can mop up PI’s as he goes along, to top it all THG funds him and then gives him £400M a year of business via muti year fixed term contracts

It’s totally ruthless what he has done but I can’t see a white knight coming for the Ingenuity business.

Is it just whales selling their allocation of extra THG shares in advance ?Maybe ?

Rough numbers

1.5B shares today

1 in 6 pro rata Ingenuity ?

That’s 250M THG shares?

50% take extra and don’t take Ingenuity shares , 125M newbie holders of those shares ?It’s not dilution but change of owner of the shares, has some in the market made the call to sell their allocation now, pocket the cash, then be made whole again ?

The Shorts are waiting for the shares to change hands and are gambling some will sell after event ?

Any views ?

Good point Cong, was THG £600M before the raise ?

So 1 for 6?

£300M EV Ingenuity

£1B EV THG before event

Is this going to be an extra 1 for 4 for giving up Ingenuity, ball park based on above ?

Then it’s what pro rata percentage take the extra shares, could be a lot of potential liquidity just in time for a full listing of Remain ?

It’s no new shares as such just a liquidity event

So II’s and whale investors who are not going with MM will get a load of shares in lieu of Ingenuity shares - and the PI’s of course

How many shares will that be ?

Will MM / insiders ‘ transfer ‘ their shares to the company who then issue to THG Remain holders

That has to be the only way this works ?

Shorts exit into the event taking the view there will be sellers of the bunce shares ?

Take your own view on how many THG Remain shareholders

elect to have more shares in a liquid asset than a Private Co but I reckon it may well be high, that could be a good number of shares that investors may want to take the bunce in cash and sell into the market, especially with CGT potentially doubling next April for non II holders outside a tax wrapper

… if that makes sense ?

Yeah, non whale investors under 3% who are not in MM close circle could get elect to get more THG shares which they could then sell ?

They could forward sell now knowing they get made whole post demerger if they have the ‘in’ on the number they will receive by not taking on ingenuity shares ?

Could it be the market is thinking more THG investors will elect to have more Remain Co shares rather than Private ?

Especially institutions who can’t hold private shares ?

So if an investor gets more THG Remain by forgoing Ingenuity shares could they be tempted to sell the extra shares taking the view Ingenuity is currently valued at zero by the market and it’s a bit of bunce ?

THG I guess will just issue shares to satisfy?

Thats when the Shorts exit into the liquidity event ?

Any views ?

Shabz

Thanks for sharing, helpful

Rock

We don’t know the T&C’s of the offer in terms of receiving more shares in Remain Co in lieu of giving up potential Ingenuity equity or visa versa, there may an opportunity to hold just Remain Co ?

Ovs we don’t really know the detail yet?

It’s doubtful MM / employee scheme would approve a hostile bid? Assume this was the case, then it would have to be a majority Bid , displace the BoD and take out the above via a scheme of arrangement, no other way.

This is super messy and expensive, would the potential bidder take on that hassle / uncertainty or just wait see how MM has structured the terms then move on what they want ?

Ohhha, you could be right but it’s a punt, my view is sit tight with new money until all the relevant info is disclosed, pay a bit more if need be.