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Happy to be corrected but in June 2023 we had £74M net tax losses on the balance sheet, we could be up to £100M today?

That’s the first £300M to £400M profit tax free

Any views? Am I missing something ?

Moniman

If Selkirk offered £1B as muted as their target price, of course but we don’t know if it’s Nutrition but if was cash / shares with Remain then leaving just Beauty with no debt would that be a bad outcome ?

Ball park we get 40p of paper in Selkirk plus maybe a special dividend and Beauty with £1.3B Rev no debt churning cash

As Steve pointed out we save £35M on interest payments and we unlock the massive tax losses, the market hasn’t weighed that up yet, some hefty numbers on the balance sheet

Selkirk then get valued as a standalone Nutrition business, if APN is valued at £350M with £90M Rev what’s Nutrition with £600M Rev and positive FCF no debt?

Ovs it needs MM / Iain Mc to engineer the £500M cash but Iain has told the market he has that covered ?

Personal view, we have maybe 40p paper on Selkirk plus maybe a special divi as bunce and maybe 80p starter for ten Beauty ? Both independent business’s get valued at market rates ?

Do agree it may not be Selkirkshire plans but there is a good chance based on the actors involved ?

Everyone’s a winner ?

Hi Yorek

Suggest it’s anticipation, the Market now has confirmation,it has an idea the trackers will need 7%, the sub .5% shorts will jiggle their long/short positions, then we have traders sitting on the sidelines who move in.

Remain is a different beast to THG as we know

The tracker funds chasing 7% of the free float is a nice fillip here, Remain £m/cap looks likely to be a straight walk into FTSE 250

It’s an if but if Selkirk did offer the muted £1B cash / shares which is not a guarantee but needs factoring in, would Beauty itself with no debt and £1.3B Rev be a £1B + m/cap ?

Would say it’s a fair chance it would ?

2nd guessing MM but if his plan was to take the near 50% of ingenuity then come back into the market for Remain then he has to move quick, it’s just can he get the volume?

Looks like Sofina played a blinder last week with their well managed increase, helping to push the price down in a thin market and taking out weak hands and Qube’s contra short, nice bit of business that

OSG, spot on, it’s was a gift last week

If MM is planning a bit of financial engineering does he just meet expectations, enough to keep the II’s quiet and he hopes the share price rises by default of the trackers / passive funds over Q1 ?

He then executes his next stage within this time period?

Something to sort the debt out ?

Tbf Knowbody they have already RNS’d the headline numbers within the Demerger Document 5 weeks ago

Appreciate the TU over that period is the unknown but suggest it cuts two ways, if it’s shockingly bad then the pressure for MM to resign mounts, if it’s in line on already low expectations the market just shrugs as it already knew 11 months of trading.

# £20M capex

Suggest as the Market anticipates passive / tracker funds requiring 7% , that was the percentage analysts for a number of brokers advised, looks about right when you think about IPO’s, don’t forget THG didn’t have a normal IPO due to the Golden share

Put aside Qube there will be a few shorts under .5% disclosure who may take profits at this point.

What’s the upside from 42p for a short with Remain generating £77M FCF and each business unit valued at just £275M on £1.9B Rev and £20M and nearly £300M lease liabilities gone with 4000 staff ?

Market Makers don’t carry much risk - they just make a market

But a handy fall last week or so in a thin market will let them pick a few up on the cheap and now move the price up as they would have anticipated the inclusion today and accordingly passive funds requiring stock

Will be interesting to see the price movement over the coming weeks as trackers apparently require 7%

MM still controls the BoD with a car crash of a Chairman who is nothing short of shockingly bad - he’s a disgrace and an embarrassment to the City

Unless the TU is below expectations which is already on the floor I can’t see the II’s moving as one just yet

MM will sort the debt out and create/ attempt a capital event with his long time friend and rainmaker Iain Mc alongside tracker funds buying in this Q1 as Remain gets full listing

If Remain had a Bid for all or either of the 2 companies would we find out ? Would the BoD tell the market ?

Would MM get the 50.01% to block a sensible deal ?

Doubt he would

At £275M a pop and generating cash Remain looks exposed as does MM

Alternative the BoD kick him off but that looks doubtful the GL is quite possibly one of the worst ever Chairman I’ve ever seen - or not seen

Qube are driven by a Quants driven strategy with multiple nodes providing input data, that’s fine that’s their game and good luck to them

For us PI’s who are not day trading but are punting / bottom fishing this is helpful, Qube carry our water for us.

2 years ago we were at 45p in January 23 , we then had the non bid of £1.70 off Iain Mc and the Candyman that gave us a double bagger, the shorts rushed to get out that’s when to sell

Then we fell back up 45p again and then jumped quickly to £1.20 + on the Apollo story and another double bagger same again shorts dashed for the exit, take your profits then

Here we are back at 45p range again , Ingenuity binned including £294M of lease liability / 4000 staff/ never ending Capex gone

On a straight line basis we have Nutrition & Beauty valued at £m/cap @ 275M each

Switch off from the noise, accumulate and sit back and wait for the next Capital event, my opinion is we will see a bagger from here at the minimum some time in 2025 who knows it could even be 3 in row double baggers, it’s a gift for us PI’s

Steve, unless he buys into Remain and quick he won’t get the volume, touch and go if he could get volume to make a difference either way but hopefully he’s set his stall out, he’s gone with Ingenuity in a big way, he sorts the debt out in Remain and he has a free ride moving forward unless the II’s have had enough of him but that would be EGM stuff and it would have to be dire for them to action.

More than likely the Trackers lift the share price by default and a capital event to sort out the debt gives it a push on top and they split the two Trading business’s

Rock, think as Steve says it’s their non participation in Ingenuity but reported today.

We just have to hope MM doesn’t try and pick up stock and he he holds what he has, his position is certainly weakened in Remain

Give it a year or so and Ingenuity do their next placing /round and he will get himself over the 50%, I just hope he keeps his dry powder for that opportunity, no wonder the majority didn’t take up the Ingenuity offer

Good point Cong, guessing it would be once officially listed ?

Either way let’s hope he can’t get volume if he tries to increase his stake in Remain.

The tracker funds need 7% of the free float apparently so that’s helpful, thats if he is planning to do a material top up on the cheap then he has to move quick.

Should be a decent bun fight as the trackers buy in and the shorts close out over Q1

MM is down to 10% personally

Unless he tops up he has made his move with his 40% in his pet project

Picked a few more up yesterday / today

The gift that keeps giving