Member Info for Okehurst1

Morning Pearls

Tbf you were on the right track with your reasoning about last Friday

One or more got wind of the placing and shorted THG - so rigged against us PI’s

THG have now restructured the balance and I am guessing there are new covenants to allow the company to distribute capital, 2025 EBITDA forecast of £120M + plus

FCF looks minimum £85M so scope for share buybacks or dividends, taking that all on board, anyone Short who couldn’t take a piece from Barclays will have to buy in the market

Trackers / passive funds who waited and didn’t buy in yesterday, Ashley does he buy in the market? As you mention on another post,a Short squeeze coming

Got to do something with the FCF

Assume the £60M is in sticky hands, share buyback?

May suit MM as he tightens his grip and has a pop at the shorts same time ?

1P, agree all points

All in the demerger RNS

Boston that was 2024

2025 they forecast £77M everything covered - I have discounted £20M capex to be on the safe side as they don’t mention but they list Capital repayment / interest etc

add back capital repayment / interest saving vs interest received looks about £40M extra cash all in, closing in on £100M FCF

What will THG do with £100M a year free cash flow ?

A share buyback and he goes for a whitewash and takes a leaf out of Ashley’s book

He takes out the Shorts, drives the price up and enjoys a bigger slice of THG in a tax efficient way ?

For THG this financial restructuring is good for the Company - put aside MM had seen off Ashley and needed to pull a rabbit out the hat

THG forecast £77M FCF for 2025, which included interest : capital repayments

The company has been paying £20M + in capital repayments, this deal looks like it will save another £20M of interest payments on top

We know Capex is now down to £20M group level but it’s unclear is that included in the £77M FCF forecast - personally I think it has to come off

Bottom line that’s £100M ish of pure FCF

Smart bit of business

THG currently cheap at 4X FCF

MM/Cronies had to head off Ashley, check mate.

Interesting view point Pearls, in affect a number of institutional investors who own THG shares got together to coordinate selling 35M plus physical shares a trading day before ft250 entry to drive the price down, the MM’s are trying to offload the same and the II’s plan to buy back the 35M shares on cheap ?

Is that your thought process ?

2:1 buys to sells

The game being played at CFD level

Big Mike’s CFD’s working overtime to squeeze out sellers , throws up opportunities for us PI’s

OSG fair comment, personally I think that MM needs to block Ashley before he gets to 20% or 29.99% and that may accelerate events

Ideally MM would resign and that would do the trick but MM/cronies need that £400M a year they pull in from THG, Ingenuity is bust without it so can’t see that happening ?

So it has to be financial engineering? However that is manipulated ?

Still expect a TR1 off Frasers this week

Chill … let the big boys do their stuff, shake the tree and pick up what they can

Yesim

I think it’s churn that created the volume not 73M of shares traded as such if that makes sense

MM’s pushing the price up/ down and Ashley using CFD’s

Let’s see next week when / If we get TR1’s

OSG,

As we know Market Makers take a turn on each trade and generally don’t take risk, an investors broker who they trust has given them the nod they are on the Bid for XXp , the MM’s can control a tightly held stock like THG and move it up and down, widen the spread accumulate and then make the cross in one day to a pre agreed price to a buyer

TR1 off Frasers to 9% next week is my take, he had to get in before FTSE passive funds have to buy in

The game is rigged against us little PI’s

Yesim,

Could be Funds and MM’s accumulating for them

If I had to make a punt either way I reckon Ashley took a good slug and we get a TR1 next week

The price was driven down to 33p to shake the tree and MM’s accumulated to order, maybe a mixture of protection and open market, smart trading

Reckon we take out 40p next week if it was Ashley and the trackers / passives move in

Soon find out

Or … it’s Ashley and we get an RNS and he’s been mopping up before the Trackers move in ?

We find out next week one way or another, either way that’s a big chunk of shares

Usual Patterns ….

Ashley’s fingerprints all over this, he needs 13M for an RNS and he’s got in before the trackers / Passive funds next week

Top trader

Shorts / Frasers / Trackers, the market makers need shares the free float volume won’t satisfy them

Check out date last few years of results released,

THG directors currently in close season