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Yeah agree, thanks for sharing your research 1P

Think OSG means the conversion date itself ?

OSG, wonder if MM has a clause he can convert early on a Financial Event ?

He needs to move before Whey prices materially drop, we had an almost 5% price reduction last week, on a 25% drop MP apparently generates £40M extra cash, will MM risk waiting, it’s going to cost him if he does is my take.

Not sure Stan? Would we be surprised ?

Will MM move into the market once THG out of closed season?

He will have 25% ish post AGM he could make a run for 30%%

MA builds up same time but no official concert party

They then make their move? 70% gets them over the line with scheme of arrangement?

Not saying this is a given but if MM is going to make a move to take private now is the time to move, not after Whey dropped 25%

Not saying this a cert but the below offers us PI’s a decent punt upside from here, 60p to 75p for Beauty which takes the debt and a cheap MP buy out by MM alongside the lines of Ingenuity

He bagged 50% of Ingenuity for £12.5M he will be back to nick MP is my call

Prelim 24 results

Q1 trading

Annual report

Notice of AGM

Will MM take the risk of shareholders wrath with the AGM

or will he make his next financial engineering move in advance ?No need for Selkirk or others now the share price has collapsed?

Personally I think he’s moving to the final stage of his plan before Whey prices drop, we have a good idea MP 2024 results will be poor, he uses this data to take MP private as he has done Ingenuity, it makes sense, no need to pay big ££ and he plays the tried and tested blame the market for the reason

To sweeten the deal and maybe raise ££ for himself he sells Beauty which could be worth £1B + he converts his CLN same time

What we don’t know is MA joined with him or does he have his own standalone agenda ?

If 25% off Whey is an extra £40M of cash for MP is that £8M pro rata from this weeks fall ?

But that would be taking the view MM wants to remain on the market ? Plus why own a minority stake when you can own 50% of THG, no one trusts him to value THG at anywhere near what it’s worth, to be fair he warned us all in the January call

He’s shown his hand with Ingenuity, it’s just a question of time before he comes in with a private Bid, the writing is on the wall

Agree, Selkirk is dead in the water, MM can’t believe his luck, he can now take this Private for a low ball offer ,around £1B should do the trick in my view

He can’t afford to not control the £340M he nicks a year to Ingenuity, it’s what this final stage is all about

What we don’t know as yet, has he had a conversation with MA to carve stuff out?

MA needs to up his stake if he wants a say, otherwise MM will take him to the cleaners like he does everyone else

Big Mike’s boys will be trying to work their magic but it appears we have very little volume and they have just 3 weeks today to get a stake that gives them leverage with MM or MA’s stake gets diluted by MM’s 180M shares

Guess the only way MA could stop MM would be come out with an offer for all or part of THG but he needs his percentage higher to give himself clout

We could say MA might be happy to just hold the equity and it’s an investment but in this case MM is taking the bunce via the 20% he slices off THG on every sale, MA won’t like having pants pulled down

MM and MA may have an agreed plan of course but that’s an illegal concert party if they jointly exceed 30%

Going to be an interesting few weeks and we are getting closer to the next stage of MM’s game plan, let’s not forget it’s all about him not the shareholders

Think for us PI’s the buy out is a decent punt from here, especially for new cash at these levels

PI’s can’t influence the share price but we can hold and wait to see the take out price that satisfies the larger holders

Pearls, agree with your comments

OSG has a fair comment on highest price paid, it’s a good point, maybe MM carves out with MA ?

Could MM lead the buy out but it was structured he then sells to MA what he wants ?They agree to ?

As Pearls says, it’s a financial engineering Masterclass by MM, based on this flair he has the final stage to enact and it’s looking likely THG gets taken private and it all depends on MA if he wants a piece?

With MM on 25% and assume MA gets to 20% + however he does it, it’s game over as a public company if these 2 players join with a plan

It’s then what price the takeout ?

Personally I can’t see more than circa £1B, it’s 100% plus upside from here potentially, hope it’s more but can’t see it being much higher ?

Hi Mover

Think we can all agree MM has had a game plan and he is executing it to perfection, it’s a zero sum game to him, it’s how he plays

He sold his Commercial Real Estate to improve liquidity

Demerged Ingenuity

Picked up 50% of Ingenuity in the process for just £12.5M

Restructured THG balance sheet and increased his stake to 25% for just 32p a share

Are we are heading for the last act ?

His only black spot is MA who has a 3 week window to pick up a sizeable stake before MM has certain control of THG or MA makes his move ? Or they work together to break up THG and take the business private ?

In the scenarios above I can’t see THG hitting higher than 70p again unless MA runs the business but does he want that ?Either way the last act sees MM walk away with the lot for a song

As a short term trade it’s looking a steal for us PI’s as we will get an offer but for any LTH’s MM has well shafted them, think that’s fair comment

Hi Mover

Ideally MA makes a move for BoD control and he works on the THG margin of just 6.5% which looks extremely low when measured against peers, think we have all worked out where that’s going ?

Either way THG looking cheap today but will it get back to 70p

before either MA or MM make a move ?

It’s in MA’s hand now for a small window as MM / BoD can’t buy shares, once AGM done then MM effectively controls THG alongside Ingenuity, MA is then stuck with MM making off with £340M a year, the best he can do at that point is try and cut a deal with MM that suits both of them, however that’s structured

MM is playing out his game plan from selling his real estate to increase his liquidity, demerge Ingenuity for £25M, then take 50% of Ingenuity, financial engineering of THG balance sheet to get himself 25% of THG on the cheap

His final piece of the plan? We don’t know the details but unless MA stops him it could be a low ball 50p/60p break up / take private, what’s left of the II’s on the Cap Table are weak they will do as they are told by MM, he’s well whipped them

Whatever we think of MM it’s actually dastardly genius he plays a zero sum game

If as expected we see more TR1’s off MA

The market will then focus on what’s his game plan

Take the lot ?

Force MM /GLA off the BoD take control

Break up THG however that looks

Not sure why anyone would sell to MA at this level

Pearls, it’s coming this week but will MA get to a meaningful percentage to challenge MM?

If MM gets the CLN converted think it’s game set and match, MA is just a big shareholder with MM taking £340M a year and he pulls Big Mikes pants down unless he cuts a deal

THG closed period

MA has a small window but he needs sellers at these levels

6.5% THG margin vs 29% APN margin

MM takes 20% of the 23% difference

That’s £340M a year

£3.4B next 10 years

Even for MA this a big number, yes there will be cost for THG but logically is the market rate is £340M a year plus £22M rent

MA could clean up here with a sensible bid or he leaves big ££ inside THG and he doesn’t enjoy the upside as MM takes it all for himself

My opinion, it looks to me MM/ Ingenuity picked a number that they needed for them, they came up with 20%

There is no flex in it for THG who take all the risk trading wise,

MM at THG has no urgency to ring MM at Ingenuity and say we need to talk, it’s a bizarre situation

The problem is MM with his Ingenuity hat on can’t give MM with his THG hat on anything back as Ingenuity only has £170M of revenue outside of the £340M THG provides

Don’t forget THG also rents space costing £22M a year

Without that 20% off THG then Ingenuity is arguably insolvent