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TT,

Suggest the APN 29% margin vs 6.5% shone a light that Nutrition is just an option on the price of Whey, all the bunce is nicked by MM and his 20%

Beauty won’t get full value because of the 20% but it’s got to be worth 10X EBITDA ? £1B ? Depends on the timeline on the Ingenuity contract? Guess it’s handy Frasers own a chunk of Ingenuity ?

Put the 2 together as below and it’s not doomsday from here, it’s just about your average price now

I do think if MM/MA have draft HOT’s then that should be disclosed as MM is CEO / defacto controller of all 3 companies and is acting for all 3 in the negotiations and potentially at the expense of shareholders of 2 of them over the 3rd

If we had a genuine independent Chairman they would bring MM to heal but the GLA is a puppet getting paid £400,000 a year to look away

Anyway I think the punt now is can 28p become 65p to 80p short term, next few months ? There is a risk of course

Btw one of the many problems when the CEO / fat controller of 3 companies is negotiating with a 3rd party company and he owns 50% of one of the same 3 companies and is a minority shareholder in the other 2

If MM is negotiating direct with MA and they have draft heads of terms then THG should announce, again the useless GLA is a puppet of MM

Polish it won’t be a low as 34p, he can’t get that through

65p Beauty tops(£1B)

10p to 15p max pro rata Nutrition

All about your average buy in price now, decent punt from here I reckon, let’s see how it plays out

404, spot on post

Few thoughts

Looks like we are entering the final stage of MMs game plan

he needs to move before Whey drops and Nutrition enjoys the extra potential £40M of cash

It’s logical that he attempts to take Nutrition private, the market now sees it as an Option on Whey and it has a diluted value because MM top slices 20% for himself

It’s not a £zero for THG shareholders but just look at the margin to APN, MM takes that gap for what is technically his private business

He will sell THG Beauty to ‘ someone ‘ and maybe not at the best price as it will all be about the 20% supply contract to his private business being Ingenuity

So THG shareholders won’t get cash for Nutrition but more THG shares same as Ingenuity restructure or they roll into a private business that will make no money as MM will syphon it off the bunce into Ingenuity one way or another

To unlock value in THG it’s now all about the best price achieved for Beauty with the 20% supply contract putting the brake on the valuation

MM funds the buy out via the 25% of his THG shares which means I can’t see more than 10p to 15p in THG shares and that’s top end when I think about it,if that makes sense ?

Beauty gets bought out for £1B ,at best it’s £1.25B EV but that’s top end

The large holders in THG either take the 75p all in and reinvest it or MM will leave THG as a Zombie business and will use the FCF to pay down debt and come up with ways to get his gruppy hands on its FCF for personal use

It’s makes sense the ‘ someone ‘ who buys Beauty is Frasers and MM & MA have carved this one out

Fair doos to the boys it’s a smart deal for them and it’s why MA has stopped buying THG shares

Alongside the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny it’s a myth that MM gives a toot about shareholders

THG are paying £22M a year in rent to someone, if they were buildings MM owned then he benefited when he sold them by signing the lease on behalf of THG as the CEO and the buildings enjoyed a coupon price

Either way the buildings have now gone and THG is lumbered with paying for £22M a year leases within them and MM top slicing £340M a year / 20% whatever happens for himself, that in itself is outrageous

The dodgy GLA looks away

Yesim/ Licker

Reckon we all agree on this BB

No way is MM walking away from £340M a year, same time larger holders do nothing about it, quite remarkable when you think about it

Only way out is a breakup / go private but that has to work for MM, he doesn’t give a toot about shareholders returns

Ashley has an open goal if he wants to pick up shares on the cheap, something doesn’t stack here, it’s not his normal MO.

Frasers own near 30% ish of Boo who own 30%ish of Rev B

and 100% of Debenhams

Maybe he has a master plan around Beauty Retailing?

Still no TR1 off Big Mike

It’s nearly 2 weeks now since Frasers last TR1

In that time we had some hefty volume days into Trump tariff news

As 1P pointed out Frasers would need 13M shares from that date to breach the next 1%

As the days go on with no TR1 reckon we can consider MM/ MA have cut a deal to carve up THG and as such Frasers can’t buy anymore as they are effectively an unofficial concert party

Suits MA/ MM to keep the price low and pay less for the break up

The above is a personal view and I could be wrong but something just ain’t right with the price at ATL and Ashley has stopped buying and MMs track record for financial restructuring

Ovs a TR1 blows the above out of the water

Just look at the margin to APN

6.5% to 29%

Then build in a risk free 20% too line going to MM

Instead of buying MP shares via THG buy an option on Whey and save 20% on fees on top, think that’s fair comment and why we are at ATL of 26p to 28p, the market has worked it out

There is value in Beauty even though MM is taking £260M there as well but he may be prepared to sell up as it works fir him and large THG investors have had a belly full of him

Forgot to add

The larger investors get more of Beauty if he does a re run of the Ingenuity deal and they don’t go with him, which they won’t

When you think about it, MM currently gets his 20% whatever happens to the Spot price of Whey, it’s a zero risk trade for him, THG pay £22M rent on top, what a deal for him.

Hence the MP offer will be a lowball but sweetened with more Beauty in lieu

MM walks off with 50.% Ingenuity for £12.5M ,a wedge from the property sale, potentially 50% of MP for a song and a chunk of change from Beauty and a supply contract for Ingenuity

All in a 4 year window with other peoples money, it’s genius

YesIM,

With Whey making up 67% of the gross cost of MP products I just wonder if II’s think THG is univestible alongside the useless GLA and of course MM who then nicks 20% of the revenue

What is MP worth ? APN has a 29% margin as not fully reliant on Whey plus they ain’t giving away 20% to their CEO

MP is basically an option on Whey less 20%, it’s a munter

Beauty has value of course but it’s a long way up for the share price when again MM is top slicing £260M a year, it’s eye watering what he takes, the market has worked out he took 50% of Ingenuity and placed 100% of the risk on Remain

Licker

We have the dilution of MM’s 180M shares

65p for Beauty ?

Pure guess 20p MP, it’s making no money, could be less, no idea on that one, the bunce is based on how the whey price rolls ?

Give up your MP allocation for more Beauty ?

MM cuts a deal with the buyer of Beauty to continue them using Ingenuity, especially if that buyer owns a piece of ingenuity as MA does ?

The larger investors may think take the 85p and be done with MM?

Pure speculation but with no TR1 from Frasers something could be going on

TT,

MP is making no money of note with Whey at current levels, he low balls that one and Beauty ? Got to be £1.25B EV ?

Agree Stan,if Frasers announce a TR1 then a deal like below looks doubtful

As it stands and each day passes the odds on a MA/MM deal looks possible, suggest the shares are being played at this level to keep subdued, lower the better for these two

Stan

Just think he has found a way that works for him, however he needs a kicker this time, selling Beauty is the sweetener and larger II’s get more of that if they give up their MP pro rata allocation

MM uses a slug of his 25% equity of THG to swop shares, same play book as Ingenuity

It’s super tax efficient for him , same as bagging 50% of Ingenuity

Not saying this is 100% but it does work for MM and that’s all that matters, all he needs is a decent price for the largest in the world online Beauty platform making 6.5% on £1.3B revenue, I would say £1B plus debt so £1.25B EV ish

If it was Frasers they use paper / cash and manage the debt on their balance sheet

Feels like we are getting lined up for a lowball private offer maybe along the lines of Ingenuity?

MM now has his template after the Ingenuity deal

Get more THG Remain 2.0 and give up your rights to My Protein

Possibly … alongside an offer for Beauty ?

Something is underway and we know MM doesn’t give a toot about shareholders but structured correct the above may appeal to larger shareholders who want to exit this crock of a share

Star fighter harsh,but not even the most ardent MM fanboy could argue with your post

MM and the Chairman are a disgrace to the London market

Suggest if we don’t get a TR1 off MA could he have a game plan with MM and it’s in their interest to let MA’s bots play with the price ?

Obviously that’s if the plan is to take private and carve up, it’s preferable to keep the price low before the offer ?

The larger holders of THG are down big time, do they just want out away from MM ? He’s took everyone

Stan, I look past the ‘highly profitable ‘ comments, it’s typical MM, what does that mean ?

Suggest us PI’s focus on FCF which is £44M from what we know, throw in an extra £40M if/when Whey drops 25% and maybe a tad extra from Beauty and we are whisper from £100M FCF

Know there are if/ buts with the above but we can see clear light to this number

However I don’t think we will enjoy the benefit, MM won’t let the market take the upside, as such he makes his move sooner rather than later.