Member Info for obstando

Our last drill was far from a duster!

@cyber - not sure it's worth asking for guesses as you'll get suggestions anywhere from 10p to £2 and all they are is guesses. All this does is create unnecessary expectations and can lead to disappointment.

The potential Helium reserves numbers have been published - we know the amount of shares in issue and the current Helium price range was discussed at the recent presentation. Capex costs were covered in some depth previously by DM. Anyone can work the figures out and allow for a big discount and come up with their own answer but their are too many variables for any level of accuracy that is wroth bothering about.

There are also broker notes available (based on previous CPR's) which would give you a start.

@skittish - I'm not sure I see this as a joint drill per se (or JV as some have suggested) but I do think there will be a collaboration of some sort (whether formal or informal) and sharing of logging information and geology

Some people don't learn - the talk of spudding "first week of September" and "sooner than planned" is once again leading to raising expectations unrealistically which can lead to disappointment when it doesn't happen, fear that something is wrong and subsequent selling off.

LB clearly stated second half of September so let's just stick to that. That could mean the 16th or it could mean the 30th.

It will happen when it happens and a few weeks in the whole scheme of things is neither here nor there (unless some of the rampers are desperate to get their money out).

What no-one on this board or outside of the company knows is when the long lead items are due to arrive on site. Until they have then the drill cannot start. We might have a crew and a rig fully tested and ready to go but without everything in place it doesn't start turning. I'm sure that's why we've been told second half of September so let's stick to that.

Please reign it in guys - the drill will happen when it happens but throwing dates down that are pure guesswork does more harm than good.

@skittish - great posts as always and refreshing to read something not littered with barbed comments or personal battles.

I always like your thought processes and one thing you may not have considered in your timeline evaluation is the arrival of the long-lead items that we were told a while back were "on their way". The specifics of what these items are and where they are coming from have never been disclosed but they may be what determines the spud date as second half of September. Everything else seems in place and that is the only reason I can think of for an explanation for that timeline (I don't believe crew finalisation will be an issue).

@cyber - if there was anything of value posted here it would be lost in the mire of drivel

This board does not carry the weight you think it does - comments (both negative and positive) here have minimal impact on the SP and certainly would not be responsible for the massive drop.

I cannot see any possibility of a JV at this stage with Noble. What benefits would it bring us?

What people have failed to consider (and the scenario I think most likely) is that Noble will announce a JV with a third party (possibly a medium size player) for this drill (and if so it will be at a high percentage).

If that is the announcement I think that would be very interesting for us.

@cybertron - unlike you I neither ramp nor de-ramp but try and stick to the facts and share my take on how I see things (sometimes those thoughts may be viewed positively and sometimes negatively - they are my take at any given time). It's up to individuals to make their own decisions whether to sell or buy at a particular price. Unlike you I've been in this since Jan 2021 and have no intention of panic selling because the price has dropped as I've been there before with the big rises and unfortunately the big drops.

I won't try and guess what the reason for the drop is as it could be for a myriad of things.

You seem to claim anyone that isn't uber-positive about the company is a de-ramper but those you point the finger at seem to have a better handle of reality than you do. You have made numerous SP claims over the few weeks you've been here and none have been close to being correct. You promised you wouldn't post again recently so maybe try that for a while and maybe don't take every post that doesn't align with your fantasies so personally.

I would like to think that this is a short-term trend and that the SP will pick up but in today's market who knows?

If the Noble announcement has anything to with us (unlikely in my opinion) then I would like to think it will be a positive catalyst for the SP here. If not then I can see the SP fluctuating in this band until the company announces the drill is turning but without that news we may as well switch off and go and mow the lawns.

@Rambo - having hired a number of rigs in my time I can assure you that the purchase price has no bearing on a contractor's decision making. Rig specification, condition, availability, location, mob and de-mob costs and current market dictate the rates.

@rogerjolly - just a correction on point 1! Graham Jacobs said the cost of the rig was obviously a big discount over a new model but that the purchase cost was "not much more" than it would have cost to lease a drill including the mobilisation and demobilisation costs.

It is definitely a great deal and a massive asset to the company gong forward. Personally I don't think we will be leasing it out much as I expect/hope that we will be putting it to good use in Balangida and Eyasi

The presentation was OK and similar to the ones done in the past by the previous board - we were never going to be given anything that could have been deemed price sensitive.

What has changed from two years ago is that there are now a lot more Helium resources being explored. We don't really have the early-mover advantage that we could/should have had in 2021 as we now have Noble on our doorstep and others around the globe that will possibly be in production around the same time that we reach that stage.

The expectations on this board seem unrealistic partly due to the incessant ramping from certain posters who have been here for a month or so. I assume they are part of the get rich quick brigade and are getting frustrated and impatient to make their small gains. This is not a guaranteed get rich quick investment and those that have been here since 2021 know that.

The SP here is unlikely to do much until the company confirms spud - issuing an RNS about crew being sorted or rig on site will have a minor effect (if any) and until the RNS lands that states we have spudded and the drill is turning don't expect any substantial rise.

The elephant in the room and no doubt partly responsible for the amount of recent selling and nervousness on this board is the placing. Certain posters have been shouting down anyone that dares raise the subject for the past couple of weeks. Why? It's important to understand the implications and it has no doubt affected where we are.

There will have to be a placing at some point. The company has some big decisions to make as to when this happens. Their options are:-

Raise after spud but before initial results are known - SP should be higher than today

Raise after initial results are known but before results confirmed by third party - more risky as if initial shows aren't great the SP will have dropped but if the initial results are good the SP should be higher

Raise after results are back from third party testing - again a risk

Wait until we have a commercial discovery as we then have plenty of other options to consider as there will be majors ready to jump in and a traditional raise may not be required.

This is what the board earn their money for as the decision they make now may well shape the future of the company.

What we don't know is whether the company has sufficient funding to go ahead with the appraisal well (pending positive results) - this has never been clarified as the statement has always been that we have sufficient funding for Tai-C and not whether that includes the exploration and appraisal wells.

I have no doubt that the Helium is there and I am confident that we finally have the right kit to get it out. Lorna sounds like she knows what she's doing (but so did DM) and I hope for everyone that's ridden the waves from the start that it comes good.

There will be plenty of twists and turns to come I'm sure but let's keep it realistic and take a balanced view.

Enjoy the ride

@gogs - I believe it was transported as 17 separate loads

@skittish - they all seemed a bit bashful and smirked when the question was asked. My take was that they know more than they let on

@gogs

It has been stated many times that the rig needs to be dismantled to be transported in accordance with Tanzanian road rules.

We do not have a spare mast no.

The rig is currently being transported to Tai-C

There is no issue with the rig

The format will be a presentation (which may well include video from site) followed by answering a selection of questions submitted (none of them price sensitive)

Cybertron - you could also do well to listen to Lorna as you posted this despite Lorna making it clear is was a September drill ages ago

"im hoping we can squeeze in our drill end of August,"

Sadly it is ill-informed posts like this that raise the expectations here and then cause disappointment.

Last week you said you weren't going to post again - maybe that would be the wiser option

@cybertron - most savvy investors have their holding securely wrapped up in ISAs and don't need to worry about CGT

In addition to crew (pretty easy to get hold of if the senior guys are already appointed) I think we need clarification on the status of all long lead items - my guess is that we are still waiting for some items. It would be nice to get clarification on Wednesday. Coupled with this it would be useful to know what the situation is with the items required for the appraisal/second drill. I believe this is the reason the spud date is still 4-5 weeks away.

@chess - not sure if you are invested here or not - my guess is not.

It sounds to me like exploration companies are not for you.

Everyone invested here has done their research and understands the risks.

If the company announces a commercial discovery next month then holders will do very well. If the drill fails for any reason then yes the share price will fall.

I guess you either a) haven't done your research here or b) don't have any appetite for high risk/high reward shares

Maybe you are bitter because you missed all the big gains in the past in RKH.

To quote you "Do yourself a favour , contact the professionals and seek their advice, this AIM Game is not for you !"