Member Info for observer842

I'm of the opinion that unless any offer is significantly above the BoD's options price of 29p, then it won't be recommended. I believe a hostile bid from a standing start wouldn't stand a chance. Keep an eye out on those TR-1's! lol. One of the reasons I'm happy to continue to add below 29p...

@bob. KDNC shareholders are doing their bit to help spread the good EMH word!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/sgqi0d/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

@Legalease. When I said this yesterday: "I truly believe we are on the cusp of something monumental, and that we are mostly under the radar from many who would invest if they were aware of our potential." it was partly based on the growth trajectory of the number of members. The fact the rate of growth is slowing down indicates to me that our reach could be much better than it currently is. Sure the word is getting out, but not as much as it deserves to be given what could be about to land this week or next!. Another good page I like to follow on there (other than the obvious front page!) is the comments by date link:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/

@Mer If you are viewing on a mobile device and don't have the app/an account, select desktop mode from the settings.

Updated:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/sgqi0d/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

If you are new here, I strongly encourage you to ignore the squabbling on this board obfuscating the research and do your own. A good place to start is this page which is updated weekly and contains 10's of links for corroboration and follow up.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/sbbixk/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

I truly believe we are on the cusp of something monumental, and that we are mostly under the radar from many who would invest if they were aware of our potential. The coming few weeks are going to be interesting! 5x in 2022? It's not out of the question IMHO, though 3x would be nice, heck, even a doubling for many from here would be $$$ and :-)))!

Ob.

So potentially company making news, likely this week or next. :-)

"Project Updates, Corporate Update and Company Presentation and Q&A" (14 January 2022)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428223526507925
===[
We are pleased to announce that the completion and filing of the required contractual and regulatory documentation is proceeding as planned and we currently expect to finalise this in the first two weeks of next month.
]===

Indeed @jimb! I like keeping an eye on this graph:

https://www.lme.com/Metals/EV/LME-Lithium-Hydroxide-CIF-Fastmarkets-MB#Price+graph

Iron ore up strongly into the finish. Closing around 7-8% up. DCE market now shut for a week.

http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/chart_en.jsp?symbol=i2205
http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I

Hadn't realised just how much prices had climbed recently!

===[
During the quarter, global NdPr oxide prices rose 40% to reach US$134.22/kg oxide EXW China. Post-quarter prices continued to climb with sellers showing no intention of lowering prices at this stage. Demand for rare earths required in permanent magnets remained strong, most likely because of recent changes in China on its energy efficiency standards for electrical motors. The new standard, GB18613-2020 was introduced in May 2020 and took effect in June 2021. It regulates the minimum allowable values of energy efficiency for different grades of motors. Following its energy crisis in the second half of 2021, the Chinese government accelerated the adoption of this new standard by announcing in November a nationwide plan, effective January 2022, to eliminate outdated and low efficiency motors. With this plan, China expects annual electricity savings of 49 billion kWh which is equivalent to an annual saving of 15 million tonnes of standard coal and thereby reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 28 million tonnes per year.
]===

lol @tomcat. You can't compare the %'s like that! Well YOU can... And the $52m is for 3%...

Indeed @Evan, but perhaps most importantly larger players won't be able to or willing to buy in, until we have the 20% of Amapa well and truly under our belt. What we need is improved reach, improved understanding and a belief this is finally happening. Publicity around Amapa, the PFS, and being formally in possession of 20% of the project should tick the boxes! Hopefully starting in the next few weeks. And then there is potential news from our other assets, a few now imminent/overdue IMHO. Reminders at:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/sbbixk/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

!! :-)))

Nice spot! Not surprising really with iron ore prices continuing to rise and freight continuing to fall. BDI being at its lowest since Feb 2021.

Millennial Lithium...

I guess it depends to a large degree on whether you think Ganfeng will need to go big in Sonora to meet their stated corporate objectives, noting they failed in their $281m bid for Millennium Lithium in the Summer.

(From November, market sentiment towards Lithium has improved substantially since!)
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/qtpwkw/bcn_rns_sonora_project_update_ganfeng_expansion/hkmpyyt/
===[
So Ganfeng bid C$353m ($281m) for a 24ktpa operation. Very roughly, as there are many things to take into account, we might value our 10.5ktpa of the potential additional 35ktpa South Pit operation at $125m. Clearly, NPV, IRR, CapEx and other factors should be taken into account for the comparison which could swing this valuation either way, but to the first order, $125m feels about right - although 35ktpa could be 40ktpa or much higher given the scalability of the resource!

But note that Ganfeng's original C$353m offer was outbid, first by CATL's C$377m offer, which was then blown out the water by Lithium America's C$495m offer ($400m)

$400m for a 24ktpa operation would value our 10.5ktpa at $175m - to the highest bidder under current market conditions.
]===

Indeed @Evan. More than 60% of the Sonora Lithium RESERVES are in the joint venture lands.

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/

Just a question of WHEN the market will wake up to the value of our Sonora assets we share with GANFENG.

I forgot I'd concluded this in that thread @EV!:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/qtpwkw/comment/hli1xa1/
===[
For a similar mine footprint and water usage to the Sonora 17.5/35ktpa a similar optimisation & efficiencies as applied to LAC, and shared with Ganfeng through the SCA (assuming Ganfeng aren't actually still working directly behind the scenes on the Thacker Pass project), would result in Sonora production rates of 23/47ktpa - perhaps rounded up to 25/50ktpa.
]===

All hypothetical, but I wonder how likely? I haven't compared the PFS efficiencies of Thacker Pass with Sonora's DFS efficiencies - perhaps Thacker Pass started off incredibly inefficient so had more to gain percentage wise? If they are of a similar starting efficiency, remind me to be keeping an eye out for 90ktpa, rather than 80ktpa, which I previously had in mind! Either 22.5ktpa + 22.5ktpa + 22.5ktpa + 22.5ktpa or 45ktpa + 45ktpa LCE.

For the purpose of progressing the project it might be desirable to avoid the question of royalty by striking a deal with us and starting the South of the Pit first if the economics are there - it's the middle bit which has the overburden that @Kiran mentioned, not the South Pit part.

Even an optimised/expanded 22.5ktpa + 22.5ktpa operation with say an average 45-85% of the additional ore from the JV area would double to treble the total of 72kt LCE currently planned from the JV area. Roughly ((5ktpa * 4 years) + (10ktpa * 15 years)) * (45% to 85%) = 76.5kt to 144.5kt of additional ore; likely doubling or trebling whatever the NPV associated to KDNC is in the currently mining plan.

But I suspect Ganfeng will go Thacker Pass big - targeting 80-90ktpa. And THEN we are talking! ;-)

Ob.