RE: Someone needing an upbraiding?06 Mar 2020 11:39
Perhaps the words around this area of the presentation would have gone something like: "Based on an independent survey we estimated that if all were sold @80 around $60m would be netted after costs. However based on today's suppressed futures over the next 18-24 months $30-40m is more likely and this is what we have based our financial projections on in this presentation.".
It looks to me that as of today, the average sell price over the next 24 months is around 80 or so, meaning $60m is possible. However we've no idea what has been agreed to date. Perhaps we've already signed a provisional contract for the sale of the ore which was based on the suppressed futures of January and $30-40m is now more likely - nailed on even?
RE: Someone needing an upbraiding?06 Mar 2020 11:22
@Dallas, the $60m estimate is based on selling all @80, whereas imo the $30-40m estimate was made based on the actual futures markets at the time of the presentation over the next 18 months. If they were to make a similar estimate today, that $30-40m would be higher. Clearer?
RE: Someone needing an upbraiding?06 Mar 2020 10:50
Exactly @Dallas. Actions not words. Re drop in estimated revenue from iron ore in the presentation. imo that estimate was made at a time when the spot and futures had just taken a hammering, spot had fallen below 80 and iirc the futures out to a year was in the 60's. There has been a strong recovery since then with spot currently back above 90 and futures above 80 out to around this time next year.
RE: Feeling unenthusiastically sentimental29 Feb 2020 11:24
@Frankie. Good question. Google maps shows me it's a guarded compound (take a look!). It's a project that's had hundreds of millions spent on infrastructure - it's not abandoned, just bankrupt. This means the project will still employ people to keep it ticking over whilst in judicial review, partly what our $2.5m will be used for. It might be as little as 1 person at the mine and 1 person at the port (perhaps 24/7? In shifts!)
In summary, I have no evidence it's currently guarded, although I'm sure I read here that the project still employs staff to keep an eye on things (was it mentioned at the AGM?). I don't think anyone expected the project to be on hold for so long after halting, but these things have a way of turning from months to years...
RE: Feeling unenthusiastically sentimental29 Feb 2020 10:50
@Frankie: "BCN? Not a clue. Unless, you mean, your quezzie about the BCN Gang ramping up production? Are you alluding to them perchance wanting to dance with our JV’s, in order to fill their dance-card quicker?"
Yes - there is a possibility we'll get news on this front Monday as noted on the BCN LSE chat board. But I wouldn't hold your breath...
I'm reasonably certain that court case would have been a block to us getting our 20% @tomcat one way or another. So it's great news it's now settled IMHO. RNS worthy? Perhaps, perhaps not. Probably not on balance.
RE: Feeling unenthusiastically sentimental29 Feb 2020 09:50
@Frankie, since you keep mentioning barges, boats and tugs I thought I'd give some background. The original timetable was to be shipping the ore stored at our port towards the end of last year so several of us kept an eye out on movements in the area to see if we could spot this happening, or build up to it happening. Not only was this a bit of fun (for some!) it was educational too as I understand a lot more about the region and local + international shipping in general. On several occasions I thought I spotted circumstantial evidence of stock pile movement.
However, @Kiran subsequently made it clear that the shipments could not start until we had reached 20% ownership, mostly putting an end to our fun. Although I suppose if the project believes it very likely the deal will close by a certain date, then they may have arranged for everything necessary to begin shipment on that date to be in place. This might help us deduce the approach of that date if activity in the area appears to be hotting up?
Assuming there is no build up of activity then the explanation of all the barges, boats and tugs in the area near our port is simple: it's a busy shipping lane with other ports nearby, presumably it's acceptable to moor at our private port if we aren't using it.
Once we get to 20% ownership of the Amapa project, discussions around this topic will very likely heat up again as the eagle-eyed scout out evidence of the first shipments on the move.
In terms of other questions you asked - have you looked at our latest corporate presentation available on website? What do you deem missing from there? The R $47m settlement from last week is very good news! It is RNS worthy, I wonder why we didn't get one? Perhaps as part of the news we now hold 20%?