Member Info for observer842

Indeed - And not forgetting:

"Chinese lithium prices surge to new highs on low supply" (January 14, 2022)
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/4023752/Latest-news/Chinese
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Fastmarkets’ price assessment for lithium carbonate, 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 330,000-360,000 yuan ($51,862-56,577) per tonne on Thursday January 13, up by 30,000 yuan per tonne from 300,000-330,000 yuan per tonne a week earlier.
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Wow!

This might be of use:

https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/proposals/yangibana-expansion-1

Indeed @Evan. So many questions answered! Very happy to have the opportunity to be buying below the director's 29p options - again! ;-) I'm hopeful the early February estimate for taking 20% includes the mandatory time following publishing of a judgement before it becomes official. i.e. we could hear through the courts the decision in the next week or two. :-))) Especially since a "Conclusion for Decision" appeared yesterday... As I said the other day, may be unconnected, may even be bad news. May not actually be judged on until the courts fully open.

Indeed @EV. I think we are going to see some very interesting valuations post 20% as it starts to sink in just what little old KDNC has managed to get its hands on. I wonder if WHI will wait until we've published the Amapa PFS before updating theirs?

Indeed @Jimb2.

"Cadence Minerals Investor Q&A" (14 Jan 2022)
https://youtu.be/5iOT8agwzIY?t=1107
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In a way that's quite useful for us, because I certainly believe we'll be able to extract more value either through advancing the project ourselves or in fact there are probably other suitors out there that we can extract more value on this asset. So keep your eyes peeled on how we develop this asset as well.
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Indeed @Bannor. So when I say a court decision is now imminent, no one should take my word for it, they should take a look themselves. The decision may or may not be what we are waiting for, or even positive, but one is now due, as reported by @EV yesterday. Good spot!

KDNC future looking very bright @EV! Fingers crossed for 20% news soon.

Nice to see iron ore rising @EV. Also nice to see freight falling :-)))

And freight is continuing to fall - quite sharply for some indexes (BCI nearly 10% down). BDI 5.5%

Iron ore jumped over 3% last night too. :-)

For those who want to do their own research, the JRP says the number of days... ;-)

I must say, I'm quite surprised the market can't see this - then again, other than me and you, and a few others on here and there, who has ACTUALLY looked? lol

Nice to see you researching this @jimb, and that view makes estimation a little easier than using the BFS which I used!

I agree with:
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La Ventana is north 875 Hectares (brown area planned cut)
Tailings site is central spanning Fleur, Fleur1 and EL Sauz (orange area)
The plant site is south entirely in Fleur 1 (turquoise area)

https://file.ejatlas.org/img/Conflict/5586/Mapa_Sonora_Lithium.jpeg
]===

To clarify: this is the land usage for the current 19 year 17.5ktpa/35ktpa operation.

I'd estimate from your diagram, as I did from the BFS, that tailings + plant < 500 hectares. Using this image I'd say it's a little less than around half the area of La Ventana, so perhaps 400 hectares, meaning sufficient for another 17.5ktpa/35ktpa operation for 19 years. Or after optimisations and efficiencies up to 100ktpa.

"Perhaps as soon as 2-3 years if constructed in parallel" after first production from the 25ktpa operations! Even I'm not that optimistic. lol

My view in summary, see below and follow for additional links.

Various optimisations and efficiencies by Ganfeng are likely to increase the initial production from 17.5ktpa closer to 25ktpa. Looking at the existing plans, the additional 500 hectares of land is sufficient land for factories, tailings and the like for an additional 25ktpa/50ktpa operation, perhaps simultaneously starting in the south of the pit in the JV area, if not in parallel then for 25ktpa plus 3 expansions. Meaning two 25ktpa expanding to 50ktpa are possible from Sonora = 100ktpa operation in time. Perhaps as soon as 2-3 years if constructed in parallel. Will depend on Lithium demand and Ganfeng's ambitions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/qtpwkw/bcn_rns_sonora_project_update_ganfeng_expansion/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/qtpwkw/comment/hli1xa1/
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We know that LAC collaborated with Ganfeng Lithium to develop and test process flowsheet for their 2018 30ktpa + 30ktpa PFS and that according to the sedar Aug 23 2018 22:46:33 ET announcement Ganfeng and LAC have a Strategic Collaboration Agreement. Although the terms of the agreement expressly do not apply to the Thacker Pass project, it does seem quite likely that LAC has involvement in the Sonora project behind the scenes, according to the terms of the agreement.

With this in mind, it's interesting to note that the recent announcement by LAC that the increase from 30ktpa to 40ktpa is a result of optimisations & efficiencies: The increased target capacity reflects optimizations to the mine plan and leaching efficiencies, maintaining the same proposed 3,000 tonnes per day (“tpd”) sulfuric acid plant and water usage

We know that Ganfeng is reviewing a lithium plant production rate above the previously planned 17,500 tonnes per year.

For a similar mine footprint and water usage to the Sonora 17.5/35ktpa a similar optimisation & efficiencies as applied to LAC, and shared with Ganfeng through the SCA (assuming Ganfeng aren't actually still working directly behind the scenes on the Thacker Pass project), would result in Sonora production rates of 23/47ktpa - perhaps rounded up to 25/50ktpa.

Additionally as previously discussed in this thread the additional 500 hectares of land at the eastern end of the plant site location to allow for future plant expansions indicates they are considering expansions beyond this, perhaps simultaneously mining from the South pit which this additional land is likely adjacent to, to reduce mining costs and improve project economics.
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@Ivy. Not sure we are the facilitator in this context. Might be worth asking for clarification? "In the event of commercial mining operations commencing a 2% NSR will be payable to the nominees of the facilitator."

Indeed @Heid. I'd much prefer we stayed in Sonora, funding it to production. My views are predicated on Ganfeng wanting us out, and the minimum we should be prepared to take at this time based on their 17.5ktpa/35ktpa plan. Pretty sure our BoD won't be selling 100% of the JV's based on the value of them in that plan! But if we do go out without any trace (e.g. royalty) then it better be for big bucks - £100m+, which for the avoidance of doubt includes $200m/£200m! lol. £100m just happens to be the very bare minimum I'd prepare to accept at this time. Ideally much higher, especially post announcement of their TRUE plans for Sonora which in my opinion could be higher than 100ktpa longer term...

Indeed. A large cash offer and no royalty for the lot (£100m+), or sufficient cash offer to take us to 49% of Amapa without further dilution/CLN's and decent percentage royalty on everything mined from the JV areas for the next 100 years.

I don't think the BoD have really talked about royalty arrangements in our investment plan of investing early, benefiting from the rise, and divesting, but it's something I'd be keen to see in projects when exiting. Yangibana is another one flying under the radar with rare earth prices continuing to rise... Would be great to see that converted to shares in HAS or even better a royalty arrangement, assuming we decide to out, rather than fund to production when called upon.

Ob.

@tomcat. You realise it's a higher percentage to KDNC based on the reserves... 18.6% ;-)

Indeed @tomcat. Of that 8.8Mt 200 year resource. KDNC has claim over 1.478Mt:

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/

Meaning that Ganfeng have claim over 3.66Mt and BCN claim over 3.66Mt.