Member Info for observer842

Indeed @degsie. Lithium up, iron ore up, rare earth's up...

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph
http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I
http://www.asianmetal.com/RareEarthsPrice/RareEarths.html

KDNC's cash up...

Cheers @degsie - though this feels like a better link to me. :-)

https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/cadence-minerals-investor-presentation-february-2022/

"Define value of remaining 22% first right of refusal" - Explains a thing or two!

Talking of upcoming news, I make the TL;DR as:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/sxiuzj/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/
===[
Amapa Iron Ore: Fully funded to increase ownership stake to 27% of a project that had an estimated internal valuation of $3.2B in 2008 with PFS due soon.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's. Details on Ganfeng's optimisation and expansion ambitions and impact on KDNC forthcoming.

LT/LS Lithium: assay results on KDNC's 31.5% JV being assessed to identify potential drill targets to earn-in up to 49%.

Yangibana Rare Earths: whether Hastings plan to officially bring KDNC's 30% JV forward in the mining schedule from years 12-15 as suggested in July 2021.

EMH Lithium: partner/offtake announcements for phase 1 of the project.
]===

For the benefit of anyone new looking in, follow the link for better formatting, and many corroborating links and much more!

Now the placing & open offer is out of the way there's is a lot of news expected over the coming weeks & months. Exciting times! :-)))

Ob.

Indeed @EV - we've all had the opportunity to buy at this price, but no doubt there will be complaints and tears when we are multiples higher up. I filled my boots beyond my offer right :-))) Now bring on the news! ;-)

"Yangibana’s project economics are highly sensitive to changes in NdPr price. Based on the current Asian Metals spot price for Nd2O3+Pr6O11 oxides of approximately US$170/kg, the post-tax NPV8 and IRR increase to [AUD]$2,358 million and 40% respectively."

From what I can tell the current worst case is that our 30% Yangibana North is mined in years 12-15, best case sometime in 1-12:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/si79az/has_asx_announcement_naif_approves_140m_loan_for/hv9c5tm/

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

Impressive lithium spot prices and optimistic medium to long term forecasts have to be strengthening our hand in negotiations with Ganfeng who we are now in conversation with. It's hard to believe we have nearly 19% of the Sonora Reserves attributable to us. Under the radar IMHO...

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/

Ob.

@degsie - might be worth making sure @Kiran has seen:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/si79az/comment/hv9c5tm/
===[
This 32.5kt demonstrates that the estimated 32.3kt deduced from the graph is likely correct, meaning the plan in July 2021 was for KDNC's 30% JV to be mined at some point in years 1-12.
]===

That's my summary of the rather long comment and goes against what he stated in the Q&A. As I've stated previously I'm not trying to give him a headache, just that I don't like the thought that Hastings might be trying to pull the wool over his eyes! If they are it's working given what he said...

Of course I'd very much appreciate if anyone could point out the flaws in my deduction - here or there, I don't mind.

Ob.

Wow! Had taken my eye off the Rare Earth sector recently and it's hotting up!

"Rare earth prices hit record high in China" (Feb 17, 2022)
https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/rare-earth-prices-hit-record-high-in-china20220217161738/
===[
The average spot price of a light variety of rare earth --- neodymium-praseodymium oxide on Wednesday was up 135% year on-year at USD 173,315 per ton, according to data from the Shanghai research institute.
]===

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/neodymium

No wonder HAS was up 7% overnight...

Latest thoughts on our 30% JV at:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/si79az/comment/hv9c5tm/

And that's pretty much all from growth in EV penetration, if you look to their 2030 figures they don't recognise stationary storage as a thing, and yet by 2030 some think it could equal EV's yearly TWh's

"Tesla Outlined Global Battery Needs For Transportation At 10 TWh" ()
https://insideevs.com/news/445355/tesla-outlined-battery-needs-transportation-10-twh/
===[
Global battery demand to electrify transportation globally:
Small / robotaxi: 1,500 GWh
Compact / Midsize: 3,500 GWh
Luxury & SUV: 900 GWh
Pickup truck: 1,100 GWh
Semi & Commercial: 3,000 GWh
Total: 10,000 GWh or 10 TWh

Global battery demand for other applications globally:

Non-renewable electricity: 2,300 GWh
Coal heating: 1,400 GWh
Gas heating: 2,100 GWh
Oil heating: 800 GWh
Future EV: 1,500 GWh
Future Growth: 1,900 GWh
Total: 10,000 GWh or 10 TWh
]===

20TWh a YEAR is a lorra, lorra lithium! Yes, a lot of it will be recycled by then...

Cheers @jimb! Going by their underestimating 2020 and 2021 Lithium demand graphs I'd say it's quite likely their 2023 & 2024 graphs for 2025 will be higher than 1.5Mt! :-))) It's an exponential S curve energy disruption. ;-)

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

IMHO the market is blind to the fact KDNC has over 18% of the Lithium RESERVES of the Sonora Lithium project on its 30% Joint Venture areas with Ganfeng, Sonora will likely be expanded meaning the reserves will likely be required sooner and in greater volume than in the current 17.5ktpa/35ktpa plan, and that we are in conversation with Ganfeng. Go figure.

Links at:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/stgrzu/rock_stock_channel_lithium_higher_love_again/

For the benefit of those new looking in. Follow the link for better formatting, and a wealth of additional information with corroborating links to much more:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/ss03os/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/
===[
I make the TL;DR on upcoming news as:

Amapa Iron Ore: Fully funded to increase ownership stake to 27% of a project that had an estimated internal valuation of $3.2B in 2008 with PFS due soon.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's. Details on Ganfeng's optimisation and expansion ambitions and impact on KDNC forthcoming.

LT/LS Lithium: assay results on KDNC's 31.5% JV being assessed to identify potential drill targets to earn-in up to 49%.

Yangibana Rare Earths: whether Hastings plan to officially bring KDNC's 30% JV forward in the mining schedule from years 12-15 as suggested in July 2021.

EMH Lithium: partner/offtake announcements for phase 1 of the project.
]===

Absolutely @EV . It's clear from the Anglo accounts that the $660m they state isn't an NPV, it's a "present" for sale value based on current (~1 year) estimates of value of assets, inventories, cash, debt, receivables etc. and does NOT include expected revenues from discounted future cash flows. I suspect this isn't widely appreciated...

Page 183:
https://www.angloamerican.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Group/PLC/investors/annual-reporting/2013/annual-report2012.pdf

More information on historical valuations:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/q56bac/comment/hlt8945/

Hello! And good luck by the way! ;-)

@Tradecraft: "The underlying settlement accounts/systems which govern our ISA and nominee accounts are completely separate" maybe that is the point: for some brokers the accounts are sufficient connected that this manoeuvre can be made, but for this broker sadly not?

@Alex. There is some info on anticipate timelines in the EMH section here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/smffyh/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

@tomcat. Not all brokers are equal it seems:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/corporate-actions
"To apply for shares please give an election by noon on Thursday 17 February 2022. You’ll need enough money on your capital account from noon on 17 February until the money is used on 18 February."

Indeed! Perhaps they need to see it from the point of view that the ISA manager has an instruction to take up the offer shares in the ISA, but on completion realises that the funds for this aren't available in the ISA so the fund manager has no other recourse to take the funds from the other account (the alternative for them would be to sell some shares in the ISA to release funds), and as a consequence has to then move the shares to the other account. All above board according to my understanding of the rules...